John1122

Final note before I catch a couple hours sleep. JKL acknowledges that at least 3-5 inches are likely across their entire CWA but have only issued winter products for parts of it. They are rolling with the NMB but note that even the Euro is a major snow storm for their CWA.

06z GFS maintains major winter storm status. 4-12 inches across most of the forum with the large area of 6+ falling in the Eastern half.

To put in perspective the ground temperature here vs the ground temp in Atlanta in March 1983, I was in the low to mid 20s the first 3 days of the month. There's been two days this month with a low above the 30s and it's 36 right now. Atlanta hadn't been below freezing in 10 days when that storm hit and that was 31 10 days prior to the storm. That was their only day below 32 the first 23 days of March. They'd been in the 80s during the month. If you go back to the last 30 days, I was in the 10s 6 times and the low 20s 4 others, including 22 on Feb 28th. So it was below 25 4 of the last 10 days here. The current soil temps are in the lower 40s across most of the forum area. I think heavy snow falling with a temp in the upper 20s and falling, will get it done as far as accumulating.

MRX has little faith, they admit some heavy snow will fall but don't think it will accumulate for the most part, maybe 2 inches in the higher parts of the Plateau and 4 in the mountains. If it's in the 20s, at night, with heavy snow falling, it's accumulating on every surface, including roadways. Period. Here's a link about the myth of too warm to stick. https://www.iweathernet.com/educational/weather-myths/too-warm-for-the-snow-to-stick

The 06z RGEM is actually more massive than the 0z was. More of the region sees over 12 inches fall. Knox is right at 8 inches. 8-10 around the greater Nashville area. Especially just east of there and still a solid 4-6 out west.

The cold is very impressive too. The NAM, which often has a warm bias, has my area in the low to mid 20s in the afternoon between 1 and 4 pm. That's blizzard of 93 afternoon temps.

06z NAM is coming in pretty close to the 0z RGEM. Frigid and plenty of moisture, dumping big totals across the forum area. AMZ gets 8 inches or so out west, 6-8 for Knox to Tri. 4-6 in the mid-state, 3-4 in Northern Alabama and even Chattanooga. 8-12 Plateau, SEKY and SWVA.

GEFS honking big over the Knoxville area and pretty good state wide. Kuchera would probably be even higher.

Even the UKIE is pretty well on board. You rarely see this much model consensus within 3 days.

Canadian Ratio'd.

The Canadian looks almost exactly like the RGEM.

0z GFS is not quite the RGEM but it wasn't too far off.

Just beautiful!

Bring on the RGEM! Maybe the best run of any model for the forum area.

Knoxville got 12+ from that one as well.

The RGEM is still on board as well. The GFS was further north slightly and it warm nosed the eastern valley up to about Loudon Co.

With the temps crashing into the 20s so fast, I think it might be less hard on the power grid here. An initial sleet burst is also intriguing. Sleet accumulates more easily than anything else, it may lay down a quick base coat to aid in accumulations.

I'm going to hope 50 percent of what falls sticks/accumulates. I'd be generally in 3-4 inches if that happens.

The NAM is much warmer than other models and has an unusual warm nose from 700mb down to 850mb that caused the sleet/zr in those areas.

06z suite maintains the storm. Crazy snowfall rates on the GFS and Rgem. Temps in the 20s with heavy rates should make for easy accumulations.

RGem is on board. What could possibly go wrong?? In all seriousness, it would be amazing that we leave winter and then score a big one in the most narrow window in mid March and the models reeled it in from a good week out.

GEFS mean is impressive.

Ratio'd GFS is huge. Our biggest events happen in November and March. Just more energy to work with when they actually manage to get the cold air.

The Canadian took another step towards the GFS and has a much more widespread event than it did at 12z. Thread may be needed by tomorrow for this one as long as everything sticks together. Accumulation will be aided by it being an evening into overnight event. Rates will also come into play. Ground temps are a bit of a factor but can easily be overcome by rates. The huge April 1987 snow had temps the last week of March in the mid to upper 70s, it snowed around 1-2 inches on March 31st after the high being 75 and 71 in the two days before it. Highs were in the 50s on April 1st and 2nd, cold crashed in on the 2nd, as rain started, by the evening of the second silver dollar were falling here, 10-12 inches fell from evening into overnight. It just melts quickly from the ground up when the ground is so warm but it should look amazing for a few hour on Sat morning if we can pull it off.

0z GFS is quite enthusiastic. Gonna be a huge run it looks like.