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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    I think models tend to over exaggerate both upslope and downslope as a rule, especially hi-res models.
  2. John1122
    Another moderate round moving over. Nickel to quarter sized flakes.
  3. John1122
    This is the snow shower I was under earlier. This is right off 141. https://fb.watch/ptRZHyWvXX/?mibextid=2JQ9oc
  4. John1122
    Oh Canada!!
  5. John1122
    24-hour ratio map. I don't believe the barren spot down toward the southern valley. But great map otherwise and up for every from 12 and 18z.
  6. John1122
    A little more meat on the buffet on the 00z so far.
  7. John1122
    Moderate to heavy snow with this shower.
  8. John1122
    Falling weather of some kind is on my doorstep. Hopefully it's snow.
  9. John1122
    This is the total from just the Sunday/Monday event.
  10. John1122
    This is just from the Sun/Monday system. Edit nvm. Posted wrong image
  11. John1122
    Models are keying on a northern stream system following on the 19th-20th time frame that would probably bring another 1-2 inches of snow to north of 40 from Nashville eastward.
  12. John1122
    For this system, looking at the 12z Sunday run, the Euro is by far the biggest miss for this area. The NAM and RGEM were best, with the Canadian/UKIE/GFS all doing better than the Euro with a heavy precip axis up into East Tennessee.
  13. John1122
    It was a little weaker at the surface and cut QPF more than in half from the 00z run.
  14. John1122
    48 hours ago the Euro gave me .93 inches from this storm through 7pm this evening. It's raining right now and I'm at 3 inches from it.
  15. John1122
    The Euro was a classic track and would be a nice snowstorm for Tennessee imo. Lows that move from Mobile, Alabama to interior South Carolina are money here as long as we have cold. Ever since I've done model watching, they all underestimate QPF from gulf lows. Both in amounts and northern extent. I still can't for the life of me see why I switch to sleet with the low moving over South Georgia and 700mb, 850, 925 and surface temps well into the 20s either.
  16. John1122
    Saturday or Sunday. Seriously, I had the Euro giving me 30 inches 2 days out a couple years ago and ended up with 2 inches. Right now I'd feel fairly confident we're going to get really cold. Models don't often miss that. Any snow amounts between a dusting to 10 inches are on the table across most of the area. I say dusting because this arctic blasts usually squeeze out at least that.
  17. John1122
    The euro went truly bizarre and changed me from snow to sleet on the back side of the low with temps in the 20s from 700mb to the surface. Don't really see that happening.
  18. John1122
    The Canadian entered the chat.
  19. John1122
    Yep, huge run forum wide. Low end near the GA border around 3 inches. 6-10+ wide spread. It's -8 imby by 1am Wednesday morning, behind the storm.
  20. John1122
    Still snowing from Nashville to the spine of the Apps and to the TN Ga border at 180.
  21. John1122
    Warm nose is gone and the east is getting pounded by 174.
  22. John1122
    Unless it just sharply cuts, looking like a Miller A/slider.
  23. John1122
    Looks like it's starting as rain around Chattanooga but snow everywhere else in the forum area. Memphis is getting pounded.
  24. John1122
    Snow line is further south through 162. Instead of 50s in the east, it's 30s.
  25. John1122
    Euro is coming in colder than it's warm nosed 12z run.
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