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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Was just coming here to post this. That's an East Tennessee, SEKY, SWVA classic storm right there. We had one similar a few years ago that dropped 5-8 inches across the area.
  2. John1122
    06z GFS wasn't there yet but it took a big step NW with its precip shield.
  3. John1122
    The Euro tired to make another go at it that time. Big storm for the mountains and North Carolina, very close for a lot of East Tennessee.
  4. John1122
    GFS now has a Gulf low but it may slip east of here, another one in the chamber over the southwest, will have to see where it goes.
  5. John1122
    May not amount to anything but the energy from the 18z yesterday over Western Montana/Idaho is back this run.
  6. John1122
    The GFS goes from tumbleweed drought conditions for 10 days to biblical flooding from 11-15. I have my doubts about either solution. Not sure why the energy it and the Euro saw dropping down the front range that phased into the big weekend storm just went "poof" overnight.
  7. John1122
    The Euro got 4-6 for your area. Hopefully these solutions hold. The GFS has had it for a while but was on an island.
  8. John1122
    I'm going to Chattanooga for my yearly Super Bowl trip to my brother's house. So lock in the storm next weekend.
  9. John1122
    Those last two runs of the Euro/GFS are what winter storm dreams are made of across the Valley region.
  10. John1122
    06z is a clipper parade that skirts the area. Shows rain at 138 on the map on Pivotal but the soundings are solidly in the snow indication even at that hour. Column is sub freezing all the way to the surface and it's fairly steep lapse rates too. Another clipper rolls in about 24-30 hours later. It moves almost W to E once it gets to Missouri or that area. Shows rain in Kentucky and clips the Plateau and NE areas with snow. Soundings under the model depicted rain are solidly in the snow category though. Most modeling outside the GFS is trying the bone dry approach. The GFS is merely mostly dry.
  11. John1122
    Still snowing, about 1/4th inch to 1/2 inch. With this little bit of snow I only managed about 36 hours in the last few weeks without at least some snow on the ground.
  12. John1122
    Steady light snow now. Dusting on raised surfaces.
  13. John1122
    It's a nice little snow shower when you're in them.
  14. John1122
    Pretty good snow shower rolling though right now. That classic foggy look along the ridges above me.
  15. John1122
    Very brief freezing drizzle here. The HRRR handled it much better than any other model imby, unless that bit of moisture out toward Nashville does something, which I doubt. Unlike many events like this, sub freezing cold was much slower to arrive than predicted. The models showing .2 or .3 zr here had 20s rushing in. Instead it's 31.8.
  16. John1122
    Went from 55 to 42 in around 15 minutes.
  17. John1122
    Temp is 55 here and 37 about 18 miles away in Oneida. Very heavy rain moving over. I expect to be in the cold sector in the next 30 or 45 minutes. Not sure how far sub freezing is to my to my NW. They are still decently far away due west though.
  18. John1122
    Any cold air will happen after midnight most likely. It's actually well under forecast temps here as of now. They had 57 here but its only 51.
  19. John1122
    The winter storm is rolling across west Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. The models, even the hi-res are struggling to keep up with the East push and depth of the cold air. Areas expected to see freezing rain are seeing more sleet. Areas forecast to see Zr/Sleet at this hour appear to be getting snow. The HRRR looks like it's trying to catch up but it's staying behind a little.
  20. John1122
    Nashville issued a WWA for a big chunk of its CWA. That will likely have to be moved East if the NAM/RGem are correct.
  21. John1122
    Does Camp Creek have usually high winds outside of mountain wave events? I often wonder if it's one of the windiest places in the lower 48.
  22. John1122
    I love the threads for that. Glad we are building our own database. I think you mentioned getting in on the nice front end on the thread. We also had a big winter storm Feb 16th 2015. It's crazy how that V-Day week is so productive.
  23. John1122
    The 0z RGEM is pretty close to the NAM over the next 36 hours as well. Devastating ice west. Light to moderate ice Plateau and Middle areas.
  24. John1122
    The latest NAM is just mean for Memphis and other areas of West Tennessee. Close to 2 inches of qpf as freezing rain. Also a good portion of Middle Tennessee and the Plateau gets .10 or more zr per the NAM.
  25. John1122
    Jackson issued WWA all the way to the Tennessee/VA border. Winter Storm Warnings one tier of counties north of the border. If the cold presses just a little more south and east a lot more of Tennessee is going to need winter products.
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