John1122

Models are trying for another potentially big storm in the 174-200hrs out range.

Well, it's the crazy uncle for a reason. It's know for wild solutions but lately it seems to more mirror the GFS or Euro but will still throw a wild pitch now and then.

The CMC has me at 20 degrees with 750-850mb at about 34f getting almost half an inch of freezing rain and sleet after 4 to 6 inches of paste. I'd probably be powerless for 2 weeks.

I'd be fine for you guys but man, I could do without the ice on top of the snow! I want power for the single digits!

I'm still mainly looking at trends regarding track. QPF will always vary from run to run and small things make big windows 3 or 4 days away. The inconsistencies with this show how many directions the plinko chip can still fall on a given run.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Euro and the Canadian look similar at this point. The solutions are literally all over the map across all modeling.

The GFS is popping a gulf low. If we can get it moving NE instead of East it will be nice.

ICON was a good run but a bad trend for now, as it stepped a little more Southeast and instead of running a low up Hatteras it went out to sea. The clown map still looked nice but I was hoping to see the SE trend back off. After years of NW trends hurting us, we may be in the year of the SE trend.

The ICON is almost a mirror image, through 78, of its solid 18z run.

The RGEM slowed down too but it's still ahead of the NAM. It was working well for the west side as the run ended.

The 00z NAM is definitely slower/holding back more than other guidance.

I've still got several papers from 1996! The "missing" and under reported snowfall amounts from that storm are legendary. To me, it ranks alongside the Blizzard of 1993 for local impacts. It was much worse than the blizzard on a state wide scale because it was a major winter storm for everyone. The Blizzard of '93 really cut off to a normal event beyond about Cookeville. That report is waaaaaaaay off here. The 911 director at that time who submitted those reports to papers, quite literally didn't understand how to measure things. The same person reported that 10 inches fell during the Blizzard of 1993. Snowfall totals here were 16-18 inches. 16-20+ in Anderson and Union.

Low QPF, which I'd assume is underdone.

I assume that all modeling must be verifying too cold lately. MRX states it's confident highs will be in the 30s on Monday and has my high at 34 degrees in the point forecast. No model besides the Canadian has me out of the 20s on Monday. Their current call is for the highest totals to be around 2 inches on the Northern Plateau and SWVA areas that border Kentucky. I guess the Euro spooked them. My forecast did change from snow showers wording to just snow wording. Which signifies confidence of a steady snow event in my experience. They did earlier discuss only issuing WWA advisory products for this event and with new criteria for warnings going down from 4 inches to 3 inches, them saying 2 inches makes sense.

ICON was GFSian in it's outcome.

Yep, the ICON is pretty great for most of the forum. But if all the other guidance makes the move it did, they'll look like the Euro. It's beginning to get into hi-res range and the RGEM looked like it was going to be a good run too.

The ICON is going to be much better than it's previous runs but it was on the far NW envelope before.

The Euro had one job to do with the other models improving so drastically. So of course...

I believe the mid-state saw some extreme sleet like that during the massive Arctic blast that shut down Texas. A sleet storm in the lower 10s that time.

The Canadian has an extreme warm nose at 800mb that causes sleet/freezing rain over the Eastern Valley areas and southern Mid-State. The model is depicting heavy sleet and the 800mb warm nose temp being about 33-34f while the surface temps below it are in the mid to upper 10s. The Eastern Valley/S-Mid-state areas get like .6 to .7 QPF of sleet which would be about 1.5-2.1 inches of sleet with around a half inch to inch of snow on top of it.

Canadian moved some towards the SE since 0z but has went insane over Arkansas, dropping 28 inches of snow over parts of it.

GFS rings me up for 13 inches. I'll be happy with 33 percent of that but hope like heck it's right.

Technically the GFS had it as a perfect Miller A initially and we've wondered through the D5-7 lost phases.

I already started one. The event is going to affect the forum area. The only thing left to determine is how much.

No morning disco from Memphis yet. That area has the best shot at snow the way it looks now but as always, everything is subject to change.