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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The hi-res models keep putting that band right over me. The RAP put down 3-4 inches on its extended 09z run. I'm hoping for an inch.
  2. John1122
    A few strays are floating by out there right now. Lots of dry air still. The lapse rates are really steep in the convective snow showers the HRRR has been advertising. 20-25c temperature drop from the surface to 700mb.
  3. John1122
    MRX added the Northern Plateau counties to the WWA but mentioned that heavier convective showers are also possible into the Central Valley. Should be fun if you get a band or snow squall. The eastern mountains are golden.
  4. John1122
    January 10th/11th 1997. There was 3-5 inches from the Plateau west. Not sure about Chattanooga, Tri, and Knox, very unreliable snowfall data from MRX during that time frame, but it shows those area with 1-2 inches. It was a very cold/high ratio snow. I had 4.5 inches. A coop station near me recorded .35 precip. The airports in East Tennessee recorded much less QPF, like .10 to .15. Probably an error but I am not sure. OHX has Crossville, Allardt and Jamestown at 5 inches on .4 precip Nashville at 3 inches. MEG has 3.6 in Memphis, and a general 3-4 across most of West Tennessee. It ushered in a very cold week.
  5. John1122
    Euro took a huge step southeast with the system next week. Major Apps runner/winter storm for western forum areas vs a cutter up into Illinois at 12z. The trend this year has been East and South. Maybe another storm in the process of doing that. Another step like this last one and we are looking at something like what the GFS was showing that it lost.
  6. John1122
    HRRR has that aggressive band from Kentucky across my house and it pushed it down to North Knox around PowellVolz.
  7. John1122
    GFS with a best case scenario for mby. I've seen vigorous systems like this break off the Plateau and stream into Knoxville before.
  8. John1122
    If it unfolds like that people may score an inch or two in a hurry. It's beginning to show some heavy streaks in places outside the eastern mountains. Especially SE and E Kentucky. It will struggle with the exact placement of the heavy streaks but it shows the potential if you get under one.
  9. John1122
    Cash me out for winter if we get this. Most of this falls at D9 too, so not total fantasy land. Gonna be a huge storm for someone from Missouri to the Carolinas. Who will be a mystery. Bitter below 0 cold behind it. Not as extreme as 06z.
  10. John1122
    Same here, except for the parking lot piles. People don't often get their lots graded here. But north and east facing places still have snow. My back steps still have it and part of the yard.
  11. John1122
    RGEM ratio'd also looks pretty good for a widespread inch or two. If it doesn't melt tomorrow, and it shouldn't, I'll have maintained snow cover. My grandmother always said that snow that lays around in the shade is waiting on the next one.
  12. John1122
    There were some notable upstream changes in modeling today that are starting to play out with some westward shift. We likely do not have enough downstream blocking to lock in a significant inland shift, but even a further slight shift and readjustment over the coast on the 0z & 6z suites would significantly increase accumulation potential for the eastern Valley. Obviously Western-Central VA/NC and the Blue Ridge would end up the big winners. Just hoping we at least get some kind of accumulation along the I-75 and I-81 corridors beyond a dusting. There are apparently going to be some Gulf Stream flight datasets for a later time that could further change modeling suites tomorrow. We shall see... The unfortunate thing is, 95 times out of a 100 without the blocking that's currently not there, the eastern half of North Carolina especially, would have almost no chance of being West of a storm.
  13. John1122
    The GFS was a massive shift west into North Carolina with the snow shield. I don't know if we can get another one like that, but if we did it would be a very nice event for East Tennessee even at lower elevations.
  14. John1122
    In model mania, the Euro bounced back a little for Eastern areas. Pretty good upslope in the mountains and around an inch or so elsewhere.
  15. John1122
    GFS whimpered again. I guess the ultra dry runs are going to come to pass.
  16. John1122
    That definitely looks less strung out and more tilted that those two runs. I'd love to see it slightly ahead of the northern energy and let it tug it back some.
  17. John1122
    Wait until 0z and it will change again I suspect.
  18. John1122
    The NAM at 84 is similar to the 12z GFS with the 500mb vort in the SW. Probably going to see the 18z GFS evolve in similar fashion.
  19. John1122
    06z GEFS had a sizable bump on the mean as well.
  20. John1122
    Very cold behind the storm that run. Highs in the 20s and lows near 0 in snowpack areas.
  21. John1122
    Another big improvement with the 06 GFS. Taps the gulf and gets East Tennessee into some heavy snow.
  22. John1122
    It was marginal but the Euro is slightly better with some small dusting to an inch accumulations for more of the forum area with the clipper Friday. It was very light but better than 12z.
  23. John1122
    The UKIE also doesn't look bad for a general 1 to 3 event from the Eastern Rim to NE Tennessee. But the UKIE has been pretty bad this year so who knows. Hopefully a lot of us manage to have snow in the air again this week. I still have about 1 to 1.5 inches on the ground in places that face north or east. It's melted off spots that get direct late afternoon and evening sun. There's school tomorrow but busses are on limited routes in some areas because the roads still aren't clear. So for here at least, it's been a pretty awesome January. I actually think we will have some shots at a big storm or two in February. Historically we would in a La Nina/Falling QBO pattern. Plus February likes to snow more than any other month the last decade or so. I don't think we will see anything like last year or February 2015, when it was weeks on end of bitter cold. But that 2015 winter was a similar QBO situation.
  24. John1122
    Canadian is still okay for some of us next weekend. Upslope event on the GFS that probably a little overdone in the lower elevations but if you do well in upslope you will possibly get a few inches. The ICON lost anything impacted. Anything that does come still looks to come from the northern stream as everything else is suppressed into oblivion.
  25. John1122
    The GEFS is more in line with the Canadian or ICON. Only one big hitter but quite a few 1-2 inch members vs the desert that is the OP.
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