John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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When the Euro dumped on everyone from the western Plateau east, the 500mb energy was wrapping up over NE Texas/SW Arkansas.
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This is what Tellico is referring too. Watch the final frame vs the prior 3 runs.
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It's to sit energy in the 4 corners region and let it sit there longer than it does in reality.
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The RGem tried again and even got snow a little further NW but overall less moisture made it over the mountains vs earlier. There's a trailing piece of energy that the Euro was allowing to interact with the storm and that pulled it West. Now the Euro just blows it away. The GFS has been developing it behind the first piece and giving the Carolinas a long long duration overrunning event.
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Top of Cross Mtn above Caryville at around 3300 feet. That's 28 inch tires and the ground clearance is 13 inches on the machine at the front and back bars you can see barely above the snow. Around 15-18 inches of snow I'd guess since it's sitting on top of several packed down inches.
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It didn't come quite as far as it looked like it might. Still a nice event in the 81 corridor and NC border counties.
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NAM made another big NW move with its precip shield. Could just be the NAM doing NAM things with amping a system. This is going to be a big run for areas East of 75.
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I think the Euro now may be the most suppressed model.
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Didn't see much change on the GFS. It's not always been right this year but it locks on and doesn't change much so far.
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The Euro and all other guidance seem to handle the first event Wednesday and Wednesday night a lot differently too. You'd think they'd converge a bit more by now.
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The RGEM jumped more NW than the NAM. Has a nice 2-4 inch event East of 75.
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I will say this about the storm, it seems oddly warm here to get a deep south ice and snow storm like the one being modeled. Normally we'd have to be in the 10's or low 20s for highs and lows in the 0-5 range for the Florida Panhandle to have a winter weather threat.
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It's the NAM at 84 so not the best, but it's much further N/W with the precip than anything from 12z at hr90.
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I really hope the Canadian is right, because the GFS was one of the most frustrating runs ever. Dry cold while people to the S/E/N/W of the forum area get 6+ inches of snow.
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I'd say that Euro run will just about wrap it up. It's folded to the GFS several times this winter. Unfortunately this one was a fold that takes virtually all of us out of the game except for a few passing flakes, maybe. Not sure if there's any path back this close to the start of the system. Looks like we are gonna get missed to the north with system one, missed to the east with two and if the GFS is to be believed, missed to the south with system 3. The Carolinas will look like Texas last year by early next week.
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The Euro control is just about a clone of the OP.
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I probably won't have any P-Type issues. Remainder are at worst in the 20s during the snow.
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She's a beaut, Clark!
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The Euro is going to be pretty from the Plateau to the mountains. Frigid and snowy.
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18z GFS to 0z GFS. Slight NW shift.
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Looking at it from 06z Sunday, it was probably 25-50 percent light here and Scott Co. Was way light in the Central and So Valley.
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How close was it for the storm that just passed. I know it looked like it was going to score a coup but think the back side may have doomed it.
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That's a bump from 18z.
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The NAM was a bit west/north with its precip field vs 18z. 18z had frozen in Central NC at 84, 0z at 78 has it over Johnson Co Tennessee.
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Check now. I used a different hosting site.
