John1122

My modeled floor is 4 inches. Max 9ish in today's runs. I have 0 confidence in any accumulations.

The 18z Euro is just smoking western and midstate areas. I don't know who will cave or just be wrong out that way, but something has to give between the almost nothing models and the Euro giving Memphis 8-10 inches.

Hopefully one of the potential future events the rest of the month comes off without a hitch. This one is like watching a soap opera with your granny on summer vacation. You never know exactly what's going on but you know she won't let you watch anything else while her programs are on, so you try to make the best of it.

The other odd thing about the upper level warm pockets is they are at different levels of the atmosphere. I'm raining at one point and the NAM has 700mb above freezing. 80 miles due south of me the entire column is well below freezing and it's snowing. Another area is raining NE of me and everything is well below freezing until about 925mb, which is near 38f for about 500 feet of atmosphere.

The NAM precip depictions make no sense at all with any system I've ever seen. I've never seen the NW side of a storm having mix/zr/rain issues under heavy returns while areas south of there have snow. It's the most oddly structured upper level warm pockets I've ever seen.

The DGEX probably.

Euro was better for the NE Eastern Valley, a little worse from Knoxville S. Keeps the mid-state as the best area. Only a few more model runs to go before obs take over.

Apparently at HR 51 is did run it up briefly before the transfer. Looks like it books it up the coast this time instead of lingering around.

Looks like the Euro didn't run the Apps and is back to transferring from Alabama or Georgia to over South Carolina.

It's wild that the UKIE has blanked the western half of the state so consistently while the Canadian models were burying it. Now the Canadian models have backed off on it a lot too.

06z GFS

The RGEM just smashed Hamilton Co. Northern areas get over a foot. A solid 6 inches in Chattanooga proper. Almost a foot and a half in NE Georgia. The RGEM was being reasonable yesterday but it's on the NAM stuff.

MRX expanded the watch to all the VA and KY border counties and down the Plateau for 4-6 inches. I think they'll probably have to expand that area.

OHX pulled the trigger on a winter storm watch for 3-7 inches with higher amounts possible across what appears to be it's entire CWA or close to it.

@PowellVolz is probably pretty close to the 8 inch/14 inch line on the NAM map. It jumps from 8 to 14 over a very short distance in Northern Knox County.

The 3k isn't far enough out to catch the last 12 or so hours of the event yet. Major winter storm with heavy ice and heavy snow through 60 though.

The NAM doesn't cut the Apps this time, it transfers from East Central Alabama to South Carolina. Still downslopes the east and warm nose battlezone is around 40. It just crushes the Plateau and westward. It NAMs the Plateau into oblivion. 24 inches in NW Cumberland. 18+ widespread over the Plateau and Anderson and Union Co. It just pounds snow for 20 hours. It's the second biggest NAMming I've ever seen for mby. Legendary run for all but the far Eastern areas but still a significant winter storm there. Massive .4 to .6 ice totals from Northern Blount county up the apps to Mountain City. Some areas of the mid-state get .3 ice and 10 inches or more of snow that run. If it verified, snow would be on the ground well into February in the big hit areas and possibly in most of the area with the coming cold.

Canadian still has this one.

It should have a good shot. When it snows it will be when the cold side of the storm has dropped Temps and the eastern valley areas with less snow that run had some heavy sleet before the change over. A sleet layer would mean fast sticking.

Euro ends up here.

Euro doesn't cut and runs the low up across Central NC just like the GFS. It had a big Northern Valley dry slot earlier so totals in the East won't be what they were earlier at 12z.

Basically a near exact match of the 3k at 60.

Eastern Valley warm nose that wasn't as pronounced at 12z. Rain up to Anderson County in the eastern valley.

Maybe slightly warmer vs 12z. Major winter Storm unfolding north of 40 from the Plateau west by 1am Sunday morning.

Euro maybe 25 miles west vs 12z thru 42. See if that changes anything down the run.