John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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His reasoning was that the 18z saw this, caused heights to bump up in the region and sent the storm further SE.
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The 18z Euro Mean.
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It should be none. WXBell claims to have separate maps for sleet, freezing rain and snow. For the most part, this is a snow or no situation for most of the forum region except maybe some parts of Kentucky, far NW or far NE. The Euro showed less than .01 zr and around .2 to .3 sleet at most.
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The GEFS mean Wurbus was referring to.
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I'm in the 40 percent chance of 12+ that GFS run. 11 from the Euro. Everything is fine. Not gonna bite.......
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The slightly faster GFS gives the 50/50 less time to clear out, the result is boomage. Still overamped imo but nice to see the track coming towards it's ensembles and other guidance.
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The best feature on the NAM to me is that 1037 H over Iowa. The Euro has a 1034 over Iowa as well. HP over Iowa is often a very good sign for a winter storm here.
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It's frozen shield looked like it would evolve in similar fashion to the Euro had it continued.
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WPC says they are using the Euro through D4, then the ensemble blend d5+.
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I put very very little stock in it, but the JMA has the LP over Panama or Tallahassee area and 850s well south of the forum area.
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The GFS is the more unbelievable outcome to me, just in the fact that it dumps close to 30 inches of snow in Western Kentucky. Those extremes rarely ever happen in the weather world. I'd guess right now it's just too amped, I honestly wonder if they didn't give it some of the NAM physics when they upgraded the resolution. We would see the Para just amp up and double up on QPF plenty of times before it became the normal op.
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EPS Mean once more solid for the whole forum area basically. Snow still falling as of this moment Eastern half of the area.
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We have more on our side currently than not. Won't affect which, if any, are correct but it's GFS/Canadian OP vs everything else right now for the most part.
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I'm glad you started this. It's worthwhile to have regardless of the final outcome. Definitely an interesting model battle. I think we always tend to side with the models that don't show the most wintery outcome because we are used to that happening. If the Euro/UKIE/GEFS were showing nothing and the Canadian/GFS were showing a major winter storm we'd not believe it was happening either. I think we have several more days of model madness to come. The NAM will probably be amped and in Indiana.
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The Euro, UKIE, GEFS, and somewhat the ICON are in the major winter weather camp, as of the 12z suite so far. Will see soon what the EPS/Control say.
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11 inches, plus some heavy sleet imby that Euro run. Has a 6 hour period of .75 inches of qpf falling as frozen for me.
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Low popped near Myrtle Beach with snow over most of the Eastern 2/3rds of the forum area at this hour.
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Another major winter storm state wide almost on the Euro, crippling winter storm East of the Apps with monster freezing rain totals likely and heavy snow as well.
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Heavy snow and sleet by 96 from 40n and along the Plateau all the way down to the Alabama border.
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Euro is similar/slightly slower than 00z. Low in Central Miss at 90 vs West Central Alabama at 102 at 00z.
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It's basically exactly like it was last night at 0z.
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I wonder if that will affect the next few runs of all models. I believe energy from the system that forms the 50/50 is somewhere in Canada now. Not sure what the data feed might be or if it's entirely computer based.
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I honestly feel it's too early to tell either way still. The feature that forms the 50/50 that suppresses the system to whatever extent it gets there, is still somewhere in Western Canada I believe. It's location and strength will tell the tale here. I expect model madness until Friday or later with how it goes here.
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I vote someone start a thread for this after the 12z models. It may or may not be a snow event here but it's certainly dominating the pattern thread. Even if it doesn't work out it deserves its own focus area.
