John1122

There's always a gamble in believing the models 12 hours out, let alone at this range. All you can do is say at this lead, they are about as good as they can get for our forum area. That said, a few years ago the Euro gave me 32 fantasy inches and the NAM 28. I got 1.5 inches as it ended. Above 2500 got 15 inches in that storm. So the thermals were barely off and it bit me hard.

This one is more recent than that one if I recall correctly. It may have even happened last winter. Kentucky reported he was getting freezing rain 20 or 25 miles north of me while I was getting snow. It's very rare but it happened in that case.

Dynamic cooling is generally rate based/top down cooling. It showed very heavy precip falling there but as rain. I don't recall seeing many NW quadrants fall as rain while the southern portion falls as snow.

There was a system in the last few years where it snowed here and was freezing rain in Kentucky. The warm nose ran-up the west side of the Plateau and wrapped into Kentucky. It's in one of the winter storm threads here. Can't remember which right now. But that made some sense from a topographical standpoint. The NAM had freezing rain across the Northern Plateau on the NW side of the storm with snow on the central Plateau and points south.

The NAM showed heavy rain over Tazewell, the snowiest city in the state with an observation station, and heavy snow over the southern valley. I'm not for sure how that would work. But I'll certainly take my chances with it's track.

Another Euro haymaker. No big snow holes here. There would also be sleet in areas.

Euro more progressive, South and East vs 12z through 84. Frozen falling 40 and North.

UKIE.

The big clown is the Canadian. It developed a heavy deform band over the midstate and just went great guns.

A good 100 mile or so shift on the Canadian.

The Canadian went from being entirely north of almost all of Tennessee to making a run at breaking Nashville's all time storm record.

Canadian is just pummeling the mid-state at hour 90.

Through 54 the Canadian is about 50 miles SE of 12z.

GFS is well south and east again vs earlier runs from today when it took the low up into Kentucky on its way to a hand off. Still on the northern edge of guidance and very amped which was a Para bias as mentioned earlier. I wouldn't be surprised if the Canadian is the furthest north suite here at 00z. But I'd guess it's still south of its 12z run the LP crossing Tennessee.

The snow shield is better deeper into the south vs 18z. Deeper into Alabama. The random snow hole over Roane and Loudon County, may be some kind of downsloping off the Plateau. Globals struggle with placement of it though. But if you live in an area that gets downsloping in these events, know it's possible.

GFS buries 40 corridor and North. Gets below 40 in the mid-State as 40 gets furthest north at Nashville.

RGEM was faster, slightly further south too. It was just smashing West Tennessee. Looks like a front end thump/rain then a back side blitz.

The ICON, from all I've read, has a warm bias. The NAM/ICON are in the almost Miller A camp. Will have to see how it goes the next few days still. I can see plenty of big changes all the way to the event. For areas that get snow, you may see huge silver dollar flakes that just plaster everything. For the non elevated or more southern areas you may see monster flakes piling up fast and 10 miles away under lighter returns it may be raining. If this comes as it's being modeled today, the power grid will probably take a hit. There were a ton of outages here last January with a 4 or 5 inch paste event. Then more with the endless freezing fog. So hopefully my area has lost enough weak limbs and trees recently that the ones standing are doing okay. If these solutions are showing up Friday, I'd recommend anyone reading this get a back up heat source if you use electricity for heat. Just make sure it's a safe to use indoors set up. But this kind of snow threatens the power grid at about 3 inches, more than that and you will see widespread outages most likely.

18z Euro control may be seeing what he was talking about too. It was a good 150 miles SE of 12z.

His reasoning was that the 18z saw this, caused heights to bump up in the region and sent the storm further SE.

The 18z Euro Mean.

It should be none. WXBell claims to have separate maps for sleet, freezing rain and snow. For the most part, this is a snow or no situation for most of the forum region except maybe some parts of Kentucky, far NW or far NE. The Euro showed less than .01 zr and around .2 to .3 sleet at most.

The GEFS mean Wurbus was referring to.