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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Western areas are looking at a potentially crippling ice event. The first half of February, if the MJO does work through the COD into Ph 3, should provide opportunity for continued cold/frozen chances into the mid-month at least. Super charged cold vs a SE Ridge like last February is possible, though PH 3 actually shows up as nearly nationwide BN winter temps. That tells me you see what models are showing. Cold builds in the west and rolls east rather than getting hung up anywhere. The QBO also remains deeply negative. Around -26 at 30mb. That's one of the lowest winter readings of the last 30 years. I know I've had it better than most this year, with right at 20 inches of snow this month and there's been at least some snow on the ground all but around 4 days this month. My mom, who is in her early 70s, remarked that this reminds her of winters when she grew up, a good portion of which were the late 50s and 1960s. Legendary Tennessee winters. Those winters usually featured some big hitters in February and even March.
  2. John1122
    The trend has been East and South lately with storms. Hopefully the Euro fired a shot that the GFS caves to like it did last week with a major S/E trend. Another 150 miles south and 150 miles East to that low track would be a much better solution for us. The Euro shifted that far or further from 0z to 12z.
  3. John1122
    The MJO right now, looks like it will spend the first half of February in Phase 3. That's one of the best places it can be for winter for the Tennessee Valley area.
  4. John1122
    The UKIE shows this but looking at 850s, almost all of it would be freezing rain from around Nashville East.
  5. John1122
    Lots of honking for a big ice storm, a devastating one in Western areas. Crazy that the GFS had that look at D15 or 16. The Euro and UKMet spread winter across the state.
  6. John1122
    This is a basic map for downsloping off the Plateau in Tennessee.
  7. John1122
    Ended up with 4.1 inches it looks like. Sunny and 14 with ice crystals blowing around outside. Areas just west of me where the band was around earlier had 5 inches.
  8. John1122
    Another round of moderate snow falling. Gonna have to grab an hour or two of sleep soon but always hate to when it's snowing like this.
  9. John1122
    Over performer to say the least.
  10. John1122
    Upslope engaged.
  11. John1122
    Ripping again here. I didn't expect to see it keep up like this. 18 degrees and windy. Gonna have drifts like Shocker.
  12. John1122
    I'd think you were all snow. Too cold in the upper levels for graupel, which is a partially melted flake. Looks like it was ripping there.
  13. John1122
    They were mostly nickel sized with some quarter sized flakes. It's so cold the flakes don't get huge, they just fall thickly. It's slowed down some now but man, that was a ride. The HRRR runs that popped 3 inches over me is going to be close. Maybe a bit too light.
  14. John1122
    Finally got it to upload.
  15. John1122
    Trying to upload a gif of this, but no cell service and poor home internet speed is making it tough. 2 inches has fallen in the last 45 minutes.
  16. John1122
    It's crazy how hard it's snowing right now. It reminds me of the blizzard of 1993. Flakes are dime to nickel sized but there's so many of them it's like being in a heavy fog outside. Plus the wind is probably 20-25mph at times. I assume I'm in a squall.
  17. John1122
    Doesn't do justice to how hard it's snowing. Very low visibility, strong winds from the NW.
  18. John1122
    Flow snow seems to be underway now. Foggy look, small flakes, nothing on radar over me.
  19. John1122
    The meso low in middle Tennessee looks healthy out that way, but not sure of the ground truth there.
  20. John1122
    Hopefully it's moving south!
  21. John1122
    That stinks. I dodged them for a long time too but finally cashed in. Future radar shows you getting some action soon and another wave rolls off the Plateau your way from 12 to 1 on it. I was skeptical of it earlier but the snow moved in when it showed and it's been pretty solid depicting what's happened.
  22. John1122
    These never do justice to how hard it's actually snowing. I think it's the led motion light, but its heavy with 1/4th mile vis and swirling winds.
  23. John1122
    It's actually pouring here now. The radar went from ragged to booming. Visibility is between 1/4th and 1/2 mile. Classic powdery snow. My friend who lives by Cove Lake at 1050 feet has over 2 inches. So it's completely non elevation driven. It's just luck of the bands driven.
  24. John1122
    Just saw a FB video down in Caryville on the valley floor, it was near whiteout conditions with at least a couple of inches down.
  25. John1122
    After getting missed to the west all night it looks like the snow squall in Kentucky is going to miss me to the east by a couple of miles.
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