John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The 3k is going to be much much better than 18z. All are mostly quirks of the modeling. The basic idea of a near statewide snow event are still there. I'd think a general 2-4 inches with some big winners and a few who don't do as well, like always.
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NAM is amped early, slows down, dumps west of the Plateau, north of 40, then weakens as it does a weird handoff and the East doesn't do quite as well, but still does okay. Like a better version of its 06z run this morning.
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NAM is gonna be a weird run. Had a low up near Asheville at 45, then it was back in NE Georgia at 48.
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I don't know why, models started doing the streaks last year with the Christmas storm.
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21z RAP. Looks much better for Western areas this run. Still snowing in the far east at this frame.
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Well, now I know the WVLT house model.
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It turned cold in mid February and there was a winter storm basically every week until March 6th. There was snow on snow, ice on snow and a monster snow event in Middle and West Tennessee that saw people there get 12+ with some near blizzard conditions. There was a lot of sub zero cold too.
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WVLT's house model must be the Hinkin 2000. Their model shows 3/10ths total in Crossville, 2/10ths in Oneida, 3/10ths in Knox, 7/10ths here. The met for them noted the South Valley dry slot would get Knoxville and south, so not much below Knox. I'm honestly not sure that he even believes what he's saying but he says it anyway.
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The NAM is usually amped which means it has the most prominent warm nose.
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MRX first call map.
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From OHX for Mid State. 215 PM CST Tue Jan 4 2022 ...Significant Snowfall Likely Thursday into Thursday Evening... A storm system moving over the region will bring snow to the mid- state once again Thursday and Thursday evening. The precipitation may start as a mix early, with even minor ice accumulation south of I-40. But it should quickly change to all snow, and end rapidly in the early evening. Amounts at this point look to range from around one half inch southwest to as much a 4 inches along the Upper Cumberland. This snow will be followed by frigid temperatures on Friday. Check back often for later updates as snowfall amounts are subject to change.
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NAM ends up here. A few pockets of freezing rain below the snow.
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NAMing underway.
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There's about a 3 to 6 hour timing difference in the models. Slower runs like the NAM are better for the West side.
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The 540 isn't more than a general indicator. It can snow at 546 or rain at 534. It's a great snow sounding over Knox, south of the 540.
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SWVA looks pretty good across all modeling.
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Very end of the extended HRRR seeing the system. Ends with us sitting here. Generally puts down 2-4 inches in the mid-state getting to this point.
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The best pure snow events for the valley areas almost always seem to be upglide situations. The systems that are prone to produce big events are almost always prone to mixing issues. The rare times they don't is when you see huge totals in lower elevations. But most major valley cities have fewer than 15 10+ inch snow events in the last 100 years or so. So once again, uncommon. I'll always take a 3-6 inch all snow event vs a risky mix or 12 inch gamble.
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Here's a video that gives a very basic explanation. https://www.wbir.com/video/weather/explaining-horseshoe-snow-forecasts-in-east-tennessee/51-5f97bf74-5944-4211-948a-e572cf82db2f
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Double post.
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This, and the difference here (N. Plateau) vs NE Tennessee, even at similar elevations, is that you're more likely to see 15+ inch snow events there than here. Here you are more likely to see more different days where snow falls. Tazewell is on the edge basically of the NETN valley and NE section of the Cumberland Plateau. It's the snowiest non-mountain/plateau city in the state with an official reporting station.
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Look up the Grand Divisions or look at the CWA for each NWS office. To me, southern Tennessee is basically the two or three counties along the southern border of the state. You will often see I-40 used as a guide, because snow/mix/rain line seems to happen right around it quite often. The Northern Plateau is basically Fentress, Scott, Morgan, Campbell, NW Claiborne. Crossville and a county or two south is Central imo. Everything else is southern Plateau. Yes, there are times when the Plateau/Mountains see snow when everywhere else sees rain. It's actually pretty common.
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Take with huge grains of salt as it's at the enc of it's range, the RAP shows a smaller and more compact precip area with the snow falling Plateau/East. It also introduced freezing rain for parts of the forum area around southern middle Tennessee.
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It's going to be cold enough for snow everywhere in the valley except for perhaps the southern edge. The models will just key on different bands at times and it will lead to heavier totals displayed in those areas. Sometimes they key too much on terrain when the system has ample cold for all.
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The QBO has progressed deeply into the negative, around -24 to -25. Our last progression this deep into the negative in January/February was 2015 when we saw brutal cold and snow/ice in February.
