John1122

I for the life of me don't know what to make of the winter storm watch for my area. It ends at 7pm Monday evening. The worst weather is forecast to arrive after 7pm Monday evening.

After both storms Memphis gets 17 inches and 15+ is common out that way. That would have to join some of the all time wintery periods in the history of west and western middle Tennessee.

The reason the Central Valley of East Tennessee and more of Alabama got more wintry was the Euro shifted south about 100 miles that run vs OZ. the Low heads slightly east of due north from Panama instead of from south central Alabama and ends up near Asheville. If it could only head east a little further you'd see more snow and less freezing rain further east.

Pretty much the Euro has most of the central valley of East Tenneseee getting up to .10 accumulation of ice now. Plateau and Middle Tennessee get 1/4th to 3/4ths inch of sleet. .25-.35 ice in valley counties that border the Plateau. Eastern Middle also gets around that much ice. The Plateau is over 1/2 inch ice accumulation. That snow map is awesome for the western 2/3rds of the valley and at this point, it looks like a classic winter storm that will come off basically doubt free for many of you. You have the most important ingredient for any southern winter storm, guaranteed cold.

Yeah, it's a sharp edge and it just won't budge east or south so far.

The Euro is awesome for the middle and western area. Also folks in Knoxville, it joined the RGEM in giving freezing rain to you.

It looks like it has its best shot on Monday night. The further west and north you are the more likely it does. Anderson, and Roane have the best shot. Deep west Knoxville has better odds than east Knoxville too. It's crazy how the precip overnight has oriented just below the subfreezing airmass. It been a long miserable night down there it looks like. 33-36 and rain is my most disliked winter weather.

The 06z GFS is tough on the Plateau. Coming in line with the 06z rgem for snow out west. The rgem shifted its snow axis west some vs 12z and bumped Memphis back up.

75 is bad in Whitley and Campbell this morning if you're coming back.

MRX will probably issue a winter storm watch for Morgan, Scott, Campbell and Claiborne in the afternoon shift. They've abandoned snow here now, freezing rain and sleet with a low of 25 now for my area. Most modeling suggests more than .5 but they just say .1 to .2 in their forecast. Worst of all it says light rain. Heavy rain washes away a little. Should make for skating rink level travel. Especially if mixed with sleet.

You would think OHX would update Crossville's forecast. It's 28 there and they are predicting a low of 32.

Yeah. 911 had to call tdot out here. They were apparently not treating 75 here and it's icy too.

I see the interstate is closed in your area or just south of you for black ice.

I don't really believe the Canadian but it would let me keep power so I'm pulling for it.

Way colder RGEM with better snow/sleet with freezing rain creeping into the counties in the valley that border the Plateau.

THE NAM is still at the poor part of its range but that was better than the Cutter it showed at 18z.

Major ZR sounding Monday evening imby there at least. Love to see snow but that 4cish warm nose at 850 will be tough to overcome.

Struggling to find what I am missing that has MRX now saying I'm going to be rain changing to snow on Monday and Monday night with no freezing rain. Is that even remotely close with any model sounding or output at this point?

Glaze of ice on trees and cars now. Just mist blowing in basically. The fog did lift for now. 31.2 still.

31.2 with freezing fog and freezing drizzle.

The point forecasts are always all over the place. I especially don't pay attention when they are showing 2 hours of frozen, 2 hours non frozen, 2 more hours frozen etc changing back and forth all day. That's extremely rare.

Temperatures went to 32 once the sun set. Big spread even 10 miles to my south where it's 36-37.

WWA issued again for here tonight. Currently 35 after 40 was predicted. Just to the W and NW of me temps are below freezing. Models cooled a bit today for the next event but MRX raised my temperatures some. Upper 20s basically instead of mid 20s and slightly above freezing highs instead of right at freezing. I have found that temperatures don't go up much in scenarios like what's being shown. It's just getting that cold that takes some effort.

The euro is slightly colder and moves the system along much faster than previously. Still a high impact winter storm for most areas west of the Plateau.

Keep in mind this is 6am cst Sunday to 6am cst Monday.