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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    RGEM a little east and weaker than the NAM this morning.
  2. John1122
    3k agrees, still snowing over west and even some of middle Tennessee at this point. It went for another 12 hours or so on the 12k.
  3. John1122
    West siders got NAM'd this morning!
  4. John1122
    It's very possible. The Canadian, RGEM show it there and the Euro jumped well NW too. The GFS is close and it's been missing way to the East so far this season.
  5. John1122
    There was 3-4 inches from here to Bell County to the Cumberland Gap area too. Map shading seems a bit off on the ground reality.
  6. John1122
    The 18z GFSV16, which has been working better than the GFS moved its snow shield a good bit N in North Mississippi from 12z to 18z. Also much better for NW Alabama than the prior run. The track is similar but it was better organized longer at 18z. The Euro from 0z last night to 12z today was a major improvement for N Miss too. 12z
  7. John1122
    Never wager on snow anywhere in the South but this one looks really good for at least part of Mississippi. I really hope the RGEM is correct and it just smokes you guys.
  8. John1122
    I don't believe in jinxing but appreciate anyone who does! I hope you all score something!
  9. John1122
    Went ahead and posted a thread for this system. It's almost universally modeled that at least Mississippi gets snow here. I know we have a Miss poster and would actually welcome more or even Louisiana posters. We welcome anyone in the SEC footprint*. *SC/Fla/GA posters are doody heads with their own subforum.
  10. John1122
    Figured with this within 72 hours of laying down some Mississippi snow love we may as well have a separate thread for it. Virtually all modeling is now hitting parts of Mississippi with a good bit of snow that washes out as it heads NE into Alabama and Tennessee. Several models who are performing well this winter have some N Miss and West Tennessee love to share. The latest RGEM was very bullish with the entire western half of the state seeing snow at 84 with a good bit down in N Miss and West Tennessee. GFS is so progressive this year it can't be relied upon in the d2-7ish range. Ironically it actually nailed the Christmas event at D9/10 then lost it to the East until the last minute. So ride a Canadian/Euro blend and hope for victory! Good luck to the western valley with this one!
  11. John1122
    Looking back, obviously no model got this right and it was unlikely they ever would due to the nature of the ULL and the extreme microclimate that led to valley downsloping and kept the upper levels probably 1-2 degrees from being a major snow event. It feels like the GFS got it the most wrong, at least in my area. Probably for DB's area as well and for everyone who got sno in Middle Tennessee like Blue Moon. Way too far east/progressive. It's been a major issue with the GFS all season and historically, except this year it's not even doing a strong NW trend as a rule.
  12. John1122
    MRX event recap.
  13. John1122
    With so much moisture it may stick around into tomorrow or Sunday, especially if it stays cloudy. It will be a slab of ice tonight once it gets into the 20s.
  14. John1122
    Yes, it's like concrete. The 10:1 maps giving me 5-6 inches were spot on given the actual ratio. I just measured again and I've lost almost 1/3rd of an inch due to compacting. The bottom layer is like 1/2 inch thick frost you have to scrape off.
  15. John1122
    Seeing people saying that it goes from a blanket of snow in Campbell County to bare ground as soon as you cross the AC line. It's amazing how often a snow line happens there almost exactly at the border.
  16. John1122
    I noticed at one point it was 30 in Oneida and 37 in Oliver Springs on some weather stations.
  17. John1122
    Actually looking back at the radar stove posted at 2:20 there was an odd nose of rain up against the mountains in eastern Morgan county on the back side of Cross Mtn/Frozenhead. I wonder if the NE/ENE wind off it downsloped eastern Morgan and caused the rain?
  18. John1122
    That really surprises me. The ptype radar looked good for you overnight.
  19. John1122
    That's surprising to me too. I had just a very little bit of rain mixed in after the first burst of heavy snow but once it picked back up there was nothing but snow the rest of the night. Down to a few random flurries now. How much did you get?
  20. John1122
    I'm surprised that you're not doing better at that close to 2k feet. I'm not sure why the upper levels were more favorable here. It's 35 with rain in Knoxville and it was 36 with heavy snow in this area at the outset.
  21. John1122
    There's still a decent shot some of us see some wintry weather with wave 2, and to me this is all bonus stuff. The truly wintry pattern resulting from the SSW should start being felt mid-month and beyond. MRX has this delightful sentence to end their AFD this morning.
  22. John1122
    It's getting close to winding down here for now, though the radar has filled in a bit to the sw of me, that will probably be my last hurrah on this round. Still snowing enough to have visibility at around 1/2 mile and give it the foggy look outside but flake size is tiny now even with the radar not showing much happening here. Currently at 3.25 inches. I'll probably peak here with compacting happening and snow about to slack off for a while. Looks like another wave will rotate through around 9-11amish if the HRRR is to be believed. I don't expect it will amount to much, as temps will probably be in the mid 30s by then.
  23. John1122
    I resize them and use freeimage.host. You can upload them and find the direct link to the photo in the sharing via html option. It will be the part that ends in .jpg in the middle of the code. I just copy and paste that and drop that here and it auto hotlinks it.
  24. John1122
    Just hit 3 inches. If this wasn't paste I'd probably have 5.
  25. John1122
    MRX had you guys changing over around 3 or 4. You still have a lot of moisture upstream too.
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