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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Euro is just crushing the southern Plateau and maybe even Nooga. Someone is going to get plastered north of the ULL track.
  2. John1122
    The GFS was mostly meh, but we are in that timeframe with it where it's way far east or south with everything. I'd say about 24 hours from now it will possibly trend better for more of us. The Canadian was a lot better for virtually everyone vs 12z today.
  3. John1122
    18z Euro Control really slams the midstate area, and the mountains. 1-2 inches in other areas. 3-9 in the mid-state. 18z EPS mean is in the 2-3 inch range for the Plateau, higher far east mountains, .75-1.75 inches elsewhere basically. The 18z almost mirrored the Canadian with the ULL that run.
  4. John1122
    I'm more interested in seeing things get into RGEM range. It's not been a great year for American modeling but the Canadian suite has been decent.
  5. John1122
    We get a perfect track Gulf storm that drops .20 or less QPF over a 12 hour period. Also a good part of the area have favorable 850s, 540 thickness, plus it's overnight but it shows rain on the model output. Seems unlikely with that storm track and those upper levels. I figure there would be heavier precip, more top down cooling and a much better chance at snow. The GFS is by itself for now on those thermals.
  6. John1122
    Perfect track, light precip, much warmer than the Euro/Canadian. See the prior post about models struggling mightily to handle Gulf Low precip shields.
  7. John1122
    06z GFS looks like it's going to Miller A storm 2 like the Euro.
  8. John1122
    Euro looks like the GFS almost with the first storm. Perfect track but just doesn't really blossom precip other than a couple of random spots that get heavy snow, then it nails NC. The second system is a classic Miller A/Slider that also appears to have an underdone precip field. It's been discussed many times over the years how poorly models depict precip fields with Gulf lows.
  9. John1122
    Canadian feels the block and the second system is a deep south slider from Texas to South Carolina. Huge difference between it and the GFS.
  10. John1122
    GFS not so good, Canadian a good bit better with system one. GFS shifts 500 miles with system two and decides it's going to be a big cutter even with a massive amount of blocking over the top. AKA very unlikely outcome.
  11. John1122
    Some -12c to -14c BN anomalies at 850 showing up on the EPS. Those showing up in mid January would mean some extremely cold weather at the surface. Probably closing in on 0.
  12. John1122
    Barnes benched Fulkerson for the last 5 minutes of that crapshow. I think he was trying to prove a point. Pons was in foul trouble and Fulkerson didn't do anything to lead the team in his absence. I hope Springer is okay. Losing him hurt the team too.
  13. John1122
    The timeframe has a +PNA/-NAO/-AO at a level not seen in combination since the first half of February 2010. There were 3 snow events from Jan 29th to February 15th that year.
  14. John1122
    The EURO is solid even for unelevated areas Plateau east.
  15. John1122
    Putting my chips on the Canadian since it's the only one working out for me. It and the RGEM did do well with the Christmas event when every other modeling suite was too far East for the longest time. Not gonna hold my breath on anything being worked out before 24-36 hours out.
  16. John1122
    Modeling has one common theme this year. Looks bad/warm long range. Slowly corrects towards something workable as we get closer in time. We've went from warm until the mid month period while we wait on the SSW to moving two possible snow events inside the D10 timeframe.
  17. John1122
    I'm still a fan of the EPS/Euro. There's some bone chilling cold on there around D10, -10 to -12 BN 850s. The EPS mean for the last 6 runs has increased the snow mean for the area. I'm a big fan of the blocking showing up vs the SE ridge patterns we've had. My normal is 41-21 over the January 15-31st period. The mean around freezing. So basically normal temps to even slightly AN can still produce snow here. The Euro also had a warm bias as a rule. So overall I'm still pretty excited vs the general hopelessness of the last 3 or 4 winters.
  18. John1122
    The Euro/EPS was basically even better than the 12z run today. Cold in place, a southern storm track. The GEFS looks way too warm for the 500mb pattern it's showing. The GOA low gets shunted west, a +PNA pops, the NAO is crazy negative. Should result in something good as it also falls in the most climatologically favorable time of the year for snow forum wide.
  19. John1122
    The GFS now has two potential snow events in the region between day 10 and day 15. One was a doozy. Classic Miller A trapped under a block. Long way to go but shows the potential of that blocking that's been showing up. And overall the GFS blocking is less impressive than the EPS for the same time frame.
  20. John1122
    Tennessee is really really good. I really hope we get a tournament this year. If this team doesn't make the final four I'll say we may never make it as a program.
  21. John1122
    Was just coming to post about the EPS that Carver's just posted about. We are going to have to ride out a rainy/mild period for the next 10 days or so, but good things should be coming for peak winter, Jan 15th - Feburary 20th or so for the non-elevated valley.
  22. John1122
    Sadly, not quite snow. Just unending rain.
  23. John1122
    One more day of snow on the ground in the books. The new years eve storm may get me to 100 inches on the year if it over performs.
  24. John1122
    Miller A's in January and February are by far our best way to get a big snow. Average low temps forum area wide in mid January are cold enough for snow. It mostly just has to not be well above average. The EPS above had 850s well below 32 with a storm signal in the gulf area and monster blocking over the top in the extended. If we also got the slight bump into +PNA territory it would be the rare winter triple play. Historically those periods are snowy and cold here.
  25. John1122
    The strat warming is actually underway now. Whether we benefit or not remains to be seen. By by and large we eventually see more snow than normal in the 60 days that follow.
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