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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It's magic is tricking the board!
  2. John1122
    Most assuredly.
  3. John1122
    Middle and West Tennessee posters after the NAM.
  4. John1122
    Looks like we got NAM'd just a little bit.
  5. John1122
    It's normally 3:15-4:15ish.
  6. John1122
    This one will either end power for some or go down as a moderate to large bust. Maybe even both. That is the nature of ULL snows and their path will likely not be correctly modeled even going off short term now cast models like the HRRR and RAP for more than a few hours in advance. In this scenario bet on elevations but expect your bet to possibly bust wildly even in valley floors.
  7. John1122
    Euro was much more N/W than the GFS/Canadian for wave 2. 1-1.5 inches across West/Middle 2-3 Plateau, 1.1.5 Eastern valley. The Euro has a 3rd threat 2-3 days after wave 2.
  8. John1122
    Sharp cutoff in the Eastern Valley that run.
  9. John1122
    Euro is doing work on the Plateau and Eastern Rim back towards Nashville.
  10. John1122
    MRX put this out around 10pm.
  11. John1122
    Wave 2 is swimming on the Canadian and GFS. Spreading snow across West and Middle Tennessee at the end of it's run on the UKIE.
  12. John1122
    UKIE backed off a bit and is still extremely elevation dependent. But it is temp issues and not precip that is the problem on it.
  13. John1122
    It's possible but it shows it snowing here for 3 more hours after that.
  14. John1122
    Big run from the Canadian. I do wonder if it's seeing downsloping in NETN.
  15. John1122
    As expected, the GFS is still very Eastern edge on modeling. Could still be right but it's very much on a island right now.
  16. John1122
    My RGEM sounding best guess is freezing drizzle/rain though the model output shows about 2 inches of snow in the prior 3 hours. I assume it's the dry air above 700mb causing a lack of moisture in the dendritic growth area (-10c temps)
  17. John1122
    The GFS will probably shift back West some like the NAM did. Though it may wait until tomorrow.
  18. John1122
    Just look at the Christmas event. The GFS was just blowing things out. The Euro actually waffled to the GFS for a a run or two then came back. The Canadian family was rock steady. The GFS finally came back some inside 36 hours. The Euro came back faster but still not enough. The NAM was awful and missed badly to the East and the UKIE was too warm for the longest time.
  19. John1122
    Accuweather article out today just bullish as all get for the pattern all the way into February. They say the good stuff won't even get rolling until basically after January 15th. Pretty good news that we have two potential snow events to track before the heart of winter arrives and according to them, the best pattern due to the split vortex. They harp on cold building into the Northern Rockies that shunts further east and south behind storms until it's all the way down into Northern Florida.
  20. John1122
    The exact path of the ULL will have major consequences on who gets what here. The models will likely jump around quite a bit with it. Heck, the NAM/GFS do that with every system that involves snow here. Tomorrow or even early Thursday may begin to set in stone our final fate.
  21. John1122
    Euro currently folding towards the GFS. Something that happened at this range during the Christmas event before it came back towards the Canadian suite at 0z. No clue about whether that will happen here or not.
  22. John1122
    The UKIE, which didn't handle the Christmas event very well. It was warm for that event if I remember correctly.
  23. John1122
    It's way south right now. Much more suppressed than 12z. Still, much better suppressed at day 6-7 than close.
  24. John1122
    Smoking hot Euro on wave one. Works well further West than other models and buries the East.
  25. John1122
    Next panel the Knox area and most of East Tennessee gets smashed.
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