
John1122
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February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not anything wintry on the Euro but 5-10 inches of rain basically valley wide over the 10 days. Basically everyone from Murfreesboro east is 300-400 percent above normal for the last 30 days according to the AHPS Precip Analysis maps. If we get to February 19th with 10-15 inches of rain in the bucket for the month, that will be staggering for flooding unless spring turns dry. -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
John1122 replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
Not a pretty picture on the 18z GFS Mon-Thurs morning. -
TN valley heavy rain/flooding week of whenever
John1122 replied to janetjanet998's topic in Tennessee Valley
WPC day 3 outlook. -
Southeast Valley Special Obs and Last Min Forecasts.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hard to see here but its pouring snow above 1700 feet here. Was mixed when I was in town around 1200 feet, saw the foggy look up the mountain and it was really coming down hard. Saw the GFS showing it but was skeptical. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Probably out of luck on winter for the next 10 or 15 days, but extremely wet conditions are likely to continue. If you blend the GFS/Euro/GGem the entire forum likely sees 4-6+ inches of rain the next 10 days. Norris Lake went up 14 feet from the rain the other day. Another rise like that and roads are underwater again this year. Last year it got to 1030ft and low lying homes in southern Campbell co were basically on islands. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
It virtually always gets cold 10-20 days after phase 7 (seeing that now) and that worked before. But it's probably too late in the year for most areas to wait that long so it not getting in 7 is good at least. -
Southeast Valley Special Obs and Last Min Forecasts.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Well we've had snow on the ground in northern Miss, Memphis area, Nashville area and now most Eastern areas. Not the best events except the Nooga area thumping this morning but in such a terrible stretch of terrible winters at least it's something. Maybe we can spin something else up before winter ends. Probably not going to see a classic slider or Miller A, but always liable to see smaller scale events that hit parts of the forum area before cold season ends. -
Southeast Valley Special Obs and Last Min Forecasts.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
MRX posted about the snow starting at Morristown and mentioned sun angle causing it not to accumulate. -
Southeast Valley Special Obs and Last Min Forecasts.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Southeast Valley Special Obs and Last Min Forecasts.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
This is a bit too far north but looks like it was the closest run of any model. I posted this yesterday and mentioned how models were busting South and East this year and under modeling the NW precip shields. No globals ever caught on to this really and even the NAM lost it after this run. -
Southeast Valley Special Obs and Last Min Forecasts.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Looks fairly robust right along 40 and south. A few rogue flurries here. Looks like the NAM yesterday from 18z may have handled it closest with snow accumulation from Knox to Chattanooga. -
Southeast Valley Special Obs and Last Min Forecasts.
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
According to MRX Chattanooga and other southern valley areas of East Tennessee and NE Alabama should see some big flakes with this one. There's not much better than those half dollar or larger ones smacking down, they accumulate quickly too. With luck the system will be a little bit more vigorous north and west to get more of you guys in the game. -
Who knows if we will even get another event this season, I like to go back in summer and read these threads of any events we have. May the WWA verify for our Southeastern Valley areas, as you guys can barely get a car top whitener the last few years.
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Andre Michaux Feb 1796 analogue Storm
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
That surprised me. Williamsburg got 3 inches. Figured you'd get 2 or 3 as well. -
Andre Michaux Feb 1796 analogue Storm
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Couple more from today, this was at 2400ft. It was one of those snow showers all day, long icicles on the eaves kind of days that we don't have often the last few years. The day time high was only 27 degrees. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
I honestly thought precip was moving in early morning down south. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Any met who mentions sun angle in early February regarding snow potential needs to reexamine climatology for February regarding snowfall in East Tennessee. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Todays 18z NAM as the precip moves out overnight Sunday. . 2 Yesterdays for the same 24 hour period. The globals have been catching back onto these events later than the meso models and have had struggles with how far west/northwest the snowfall zones are. Middle and West Tennessee did much better yesterday than the globals suggested. The event in upstate SC/Western NC last week was almost happening before the Euro caught up. I think it was 12z the morning of the event before the Euro had the precip far enough NW for it to fall as frozen. -
February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread
John1122 replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Just in the past 24 hours the NAM has expanded the precip shield NW and made it heavier. Yesterday at 18z the 24 hour snowfall was 50 percent of what it is now with virtually nothing reaching East Tennessee. 18z unfolding now has 1-3 from the Plateau eastward. -
Andre Michaux Feb 1796 analogue Storm
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Very heavy snow shower rolling through. Visibility down to about 1/2 mile or less. -
Andre Michaux Feb 1796 analogue Storm
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Ended up with 2 inches on decks and car tops and about 1.25 on the ground. Looks awesome in the trees. -
Andre Michaux Feb 1796 analogue Storm
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Andre Michaux Feb 1796 analogue Storm
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
The temp fell from 34 to 30 after that band passed over. Moderate snow with much smaller flakes out there now. -
Andre Michaux Feb 1796 analogue Storm
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Hard as all get out to see, but huge flakes falling and everything is covered. Don't think there's enough upstream to get me over an inch but will hold hope. -
Andre Michaux Feb 1796 analogue Storm
John1122 replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
Having a burst of snow right now but overall the precip has been ragged on this side of the system. Looks like 75 at elevation is slowed down some, could be sticking around 2000 feet on the road but I'd suspect it's more likely just lowered visibility in the heavier snow.