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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Thanks EastKnox, I think there's probably 2-4 at least in West Tn as well but not 100 percent sure. Also think it may still be snowing at 114.
  2. John1122
    Not seen great access on the Euro yet, but looks like Eastern areas get buried, middle valley gets little or nothing, and western areas get something. Will hopefully get better map access shortly.
  3. John1122
    Through 120 the features are similar to 18z. Lots of skips in the frames that actually made it to the table but the end result is similar. We do continue to be on the very edge of epic snow or epic rain. At this point for our forum, the best bets are Southern Kentucky to SWVA and the mountains. These areas aren't can't miss, but at this point it looks like it'd be very hard for them to miss. Every single model has those areas doing well. They are almost as steady as Western NC in that regard. After that it's the usual suspects north of 40. NW Tn, the Plateau and non-mountain Northern Valley. After that the chances begin to diminish. Northern Alabama/Southern Middle Tennessee appear to be mostly out on every model. The warm nose is just too much for them. Even the very cold NAM doesn't get it done in those areas. If these runs continue for 24 hours I suspect MRX will bring out winter storm watches for SWVA and the Eastern Mountains but will hold off and issue an SPS for the rest of their cwa. JKL will drop them for their CWA and Mem will probably put them up for Northwest Arkansas and NW Tennessee.
  4. John1122
    The FV3 is finally rolling, it's an extension to some extent, of what the NAM would be if it had kept rolling. Through 96 hours, everywhere North of 40 is in excess of 6 inches and some areas south of 40 are there.
  5. John1122
    Well she didn't make 96 before getting stuck tonight. Apparently lots of data issues at CPC this evening.
  6. John1122
    Through 60 the FV3 is a little slower with the low and further SE with the high.
  7. John1122
    Clarksville throws down 5 inches of snow from 81-84 on his 3 hour plots. It could be even more since it doesn't go past 5.
  8. John1122
    Right now the hi-res models are basically giving a large portion of the forum a shot at snow. The Canadian is giving the northern 1/3 or so of the forum a major snow event. The GFS is the furthest north with the 850 and most progressive with the gulf low. It basically gives SW Ky, and the Plateau to the Tri-Cities and north notable snow and leaves everyone else out. So a blend of the models is the best way to look at it. A blend of them yields a significant snow threat along the 40 corridor from Oklahoma to the Raleigh area.
  9. John1122
    While it's a solution on the table, that progression is a GFS bias and it's been give much less weight by the WPC. The NAM is almost assuredly overdoing the hp, but a 1041 over the top banana high with that system is as good as it gets for the entire forum region. That set up in late December through mid-February would be a major snow event from I-20 to I-64 in Kentucky.
  10. John1122
    The NAM is fully Namming. It's hi-res with a lot of the same math as the GFS. The FV3 is a hi-res with a lot of the same math as the GFS. Makes me wonder if that's why they are seeing the similar evolution of the systems.
  11. John1122
    The GFS finally ran out enough to see the entire event. It was similar to the 12z except a little heavier with snow in areas that got it.
  12. John1122
    I've not read that, but normally when those guys are talking about that in that way they are referencing CAD backing all the way to Atlanta.
  13. John1122
    That may be the one I'm referring to as well.
  14. John1122
    I'm still searching for the 18z Euro. I'd heard that it was going to run 4x a day.
  15. John1122
    I believe the sampling comes more into play with the northern stream energy from what I've read from the WPC meta.
  16. John1122
    East Tennessee may be one of the hardest areas to forecast there with the volume of microclimates. 5900 feet in elevation difference in the MRX area. Three major landforms that cause various levels of downslope, upslope and damming.
  17. John1122
    Does anyone know the resolution of the FV3? I know the CMC is 16k, the GFS is 13k and the Euro is 9k. Basically the Euro is a hi-res long range model.
  18. John1122
    I remember one of the guys shooting up to like 35-40 degrees during the event. It's in one of the obs threads.
  19. John1122
    I remember a downslope situation for the Tri area guys a few years ago. Moisture was coming over the Smokies and riding almost NNW. I was downstream of snow that would happen in Maryville. At some point I remember it cutting off towards the Tri-Cities.
  20. John1122
    Ratio'd FV3 map. This is going to be powerline breaking paste.
  21. John1122
    Well, I'm back in the yard stick game on the FV3. That's about as good a run across our region as you'll ever see. 12 plus across so much of the state.
  22. John1122
    It know's everyone is waiting. I'm encouraged to see it laying down the hammer, the WPC thought it was good enough to include in it's superblend of models. The GFS and UKIE are too progressive and open with the wave per WPC.
  23. John1122
    This thing is just so razor thin on the models. You could see an hour of heavy snow, an hour of heavy rain, and back and forth. It's going to come down to knowing your general climatology and how your area does in these situations. Usually I'd make out pretty well but occasionally I'll have mixing issues.
  24. John1122
    WPC update this afternoon says low input from GFS/UKIE. Blend from 12z Euro/NAM/FV3/CMC. They are strongly in the camp of a deeper/slower system.
  25. John1122
    I saw something that said a smooth blending of the EPS had the 850 low track from Mississippi to Wilmington.
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