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John1122

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  1. John1122
    The flow snow isn't looking too bad on the RGEM over the next 42 hours for the Mountains/Plateau and parts of Kentucky. There's a pretty favorable angle showing up and a decent connection to Lake Michigan.
  2. John1122
    The FV3 track and positioning of upper features is textbook for us and you can look back at some big past storms and see virtually that exact set up. HP in the area of SE Minnesota to Chicago and another near Pennsylvania will often show up in our major snow events. The last few years we've seen this level of model consistency for days on end, only to have it go awry in the last 2 days. Oddly we see these set ups verify from way out for storms for almost every other area of the country. Even last year's very odd deep south snows held steady and worked out. For me, I may get truly excited if this looks good on Friday.
  3. John1122
    This thread is for December discussion, the other is for the general winter pattern as a whole or so it appears to me. I could have sworn I put the November to January temp comparison in the other thread but I believe it was moved to this one, if not, I meant it for that thread. Personally I'd have named this December Pattern Thread or something, but I don't have an issue with it named as it. Clearly it denotes December. Also, I don't recall anyone starting a thread for a dusting of snow being predicted nor anyone being bashed for starting any other thread, but I could have missed it. That said, back on topic for the December pattern. I'll take the storm track the GFS is showing and roll with it. Pretty strong high in the midwest and a stormtrack along the Gulf is almost as good as we can hope for this far out. There's going to be daily wobbles and as always, 50 miles will make the difference for a lot of people on heavy rain vs heavy snow. If you blend the 0z GFS and the 12z Euro the track is probably for an I-40 special across the state.
  4. John1122
    If the deep south gets another mega snow event while we get nothing like the Euro spit out, I'm moving to Hawaii and abandoning snow.
  5. John1122
    Euro very similar to last night, snow line is about 50 miles south of last night, basically lined up along 40. North Knox 4 inches, South Knox 1/2 inch. North Davidson 3-4 inches, south Davidson 1-2 inches. The snowline raises as you go west, as follows basically what I described earlier this year as what I meant when I say north of 40 vs South of 40. As you get towards West Tennessee 40 turns SW and moderate snow accumulations are north of Jackson by about 30 miles on that run. Northern Plateau to Mountain City 8-12 inches. Things get rolling Friday evening in NW Tennessee and quickly spread across the state in the overnight hours Friday. By 5/6am Saturday morning heavy snow is falling from Dyersburg to Johnson City with the heavy snow extending well south of 40 along the Plateau. Heavy rain/snow mix (likely one or the other) is falling from Nashville to Knoxville. If we get the evening/overnight timing plus the Euro's slightly colder profiles to keep it up, we may be in business. We will see how much further along we can get until a model blinks.
  6. John1122
    The Canadian has a very low starting miller B hybrid that cuts NE into a banana high set up before jumping from Western KY to a redevelopment in the Carolinas. Bizarre and unlikely solution.
  7. John1122
    No kidding. We also see heavy snow in Arkansas, and the Carolinas on these storms but rain around here.
  8. John1122
    I've never been to Camp Creek, do people live there? I can't imagine the shingle replacement costs each year if they do.
  9. John1122
    Rainy, foggy and 54 degrees since midnight. Already ready for a change in this weather.
  10. John1122
    The Euro maintained a reasonably favorable set up for people from 40 and north. Translates to 4-8+ inches about 50 miles south of the Kentucky/VA border and points north all the way across the state. Looks like we're in for a week of model watching unless a definitive trend towards a cutter happens over the next few days. Biggest winners in our forum area that run Clarksville west to SWKY where a snow depth of 8-12 is snow, and east from Hancock County to just north of Johnson City with 8-12 depth showing up there. Impressive to get those numbers showing up on snow depth maps. Western Carolina foothlls get buried, 15+ widespread just east of the mountains. As the precip arrives the northern forum areas have 850s of around -1 to -3c with ground temps around 31-33 degrees. So temps support a snow event. Big warm nose really hits the southern part of the forum. Never quite makes it to the far northern areas, some see 850s get to around 32-34 degrees with surface temps also remaining around the 32-34 range. Euro shows moderate/heavy rain/snow over my area during this time and accumulation slows down, which is why areas west and east of me get 8-12 and I'm in the 4-6 range. Starts at around 162 hours for the region and lasts for around 24-30 hours.
  11. John1122
    12z GFS loses the trailing high, cuts the storm, then sends it off the East Coast. Rainer for all, even Western NC outside of the higher peaks, which every other run of every other model is giving 10 inches or more. Canadian gives a nice dollop in Middle Tennessee, and crushes Western NC. I guess at this point I'm most amazed by how consistently the storm is showing up on all models. The details will continue to be wonky but models have gotten better at seeing storms very far out these days.
  12. John1122
    GFS op was weird once again. The trailing high mostly fades and the storm sharply turns NNE briefly, it then gets shoved SE again by a H over the Carolinas or redevelops over Panama Florida. After it moves well out to sea, another low develops off the coast, possibly from another energy transfer from a system giving snow to East Tennessee. Strange looking progression.
  13. John1122
    The models are trending back in our favor for next weeks system with a long while to go. The Euro is a significant winter storm for the Plateau, SE KY, SWVA and NE Tennessee. 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow, would be even more if not for mixing issues. Shows a nice front end thump. The precip stays mixed over Eastern areas. The American models are very close themselves to getting it done for us. The Canadian is the oddest miller B I think I've ever seen. The low meanders around Mississippi for a while then transfers off the Savannah area. The GFS is the Euro control but 150 miles Further north.
  14. John1122
    Monthly November ranks through today. I'll look at some of these either later tonight or in a day or two and see how the winters right around them performed. But from what I've found so far, the theme of strongly cold periods that follow in winter will likely be much more common than AN winters. Tri-Cities 19th coldest November. Wise Va 20th coldest November. Abingdon Va 11th coldest November. Tazewell, Tn 7th coldest November. Knoxville 13th coldest November. Oak Ridge 2nd coldest November. Chattanooga 10th coldest November. Jackson Ky 4th coldest November. London Ky 9th coldest November. Crossville 5th coldest November. Cookeville 5th coldest November. Hunstville 10th coldest November. Nashville 10th coldest November. Clarksville 3rd coldest November. Bowling Green 12th coldest November. Jackson Tn 4th coldest November. Memphis 6th coldest November.
  15. John1122
    The 06z is back to a slower and more miller A track. Still spits rain out but temps are 4 or 5 degrees colder vs 0z. The fv3 continues to have snow output or ptype output issues. Not sure which. But it dumps heavy snowfall totals while showing the rain/snow line at the ohio river.
  16. John1122
    Euro no longer cuts and now goes from Eastern Texas to near Columbus Georgia then up the coast rapidly. It's heavy snow axis is about 150 miles south of the GFS heavy snow axis now. The FV3 GFS is very close to the Euro on track/snow axis. We need the track 100-150 miles further south an we'd have a 40 special. It spits out a snow map sort of similar but not as extreme as it's 12z run, with temps being very borderline and near 32 at 850/925/surface for north of 40 in parts of our forum. So very very close to rain/snow. The last days runs have shown it moving with the GFS but always being further south than it. The 12z GFS was too far north for us, the FV3 nailed north of 40. The 18z GFS was a big hitter for our forum, the FV3 had North Georgia getting a big hit. Now the GFS is back north and the FV3 is south of it, but still back north.
  17. John1122
    The Canadian is a cutter, I can understand that path, even though it's not good for anyone here.
  18. John1122
    I had to laugh at the 198 to 204 panels on the GFS. Shows the storm off the Louisiana coast and seems to move it 300 miles due N into West Central Arkansas over the next 6 hours. Straight towards the 1036mb high in the Plains. It's an hilarious path. It drops Southeast from West Texas to off Louisiana, moves straight north 300 miles, then starts moving due east just south of the Tennessee border and it moves due east and off the coast. I don't know what path/solution we will see, but I'll bet my house it's not that.
  19. John1122
    18z had a big 1044 high in the Midwest. 1036 further north on the 00z at 198. Probably going to be a rainy solution on there for our region. The most important take away will be it hopefully staying Miller A instead of cutting.
  20. John1122
    The 18z was epic. 00z is showing some snow on Wednesday now as well.
  21. John1122
    We had some low to mid 10s on the Plateau yesterday morning. The record is around 8. So within 5 degrees.
  22. John1122
    I'll have one of what the control is having and call it a December. The frigid yesterday dropped most of the areas around the region .5-1 degree in the November anomaly dept. Notably Tri fell from -2 to -2.7. It should fall a bit more today but once again temps are oddly warm there vs the rest of the region. Most of East Tennessee is between 35 and 37 right now, even Chattanooga is only at 41. Tri is at 45, not sure what the low was there this morning or if they got to the predicted 49 today.
  23. John1122
    After looking at the PSU site, the 2009 event was a miller A. HP over Minnesota and another over New York funneling cold into the CAD regions. Low developed off Brownsville and tracked NE. Classic Miller A that followed the path of the OP GFS rather than the further north solutions.
  24. John1122
    I do look at that snow map and it's extremely similar to December 2009 when Campbell County got 4-8 inches of dynamically cooled snow. Areas near me got 1-2 inches in Scott/Claiborne and Whitley Ky. Tri/SWVA also got heavy snow with that one. It nailed the mountains and western Carolinas too. I can't remember the exact set up for that one or how similar it might be to this one. The rest of the region was heavy cold rain.
  25. John1122
    This map isn't as extreme as the map on tropical but it's still close. The majority of it falls in a 6-10 hour period of heavy wet snow. The areas in our forum area that see snow are generally around 32-33 at the surface, 32-33 at 925 and 32-33 at 850 during the snowburst. It was easier to see temps on Pivotal than on TT. The thing that makes me think there is some kind of model issue or model interpretation issue is that areas of my county show 9-10 inches falling on the southern end and 3-4 falling on the northern end. But when you look at the snow depth map on Pivatol the southern end of Campbell has 5 inches on the ground and the northern area has 7. So clearly something is wrong with the output from the model. Those areas of 8-10 inches in NE Tn show up as 2-4 inches on the ground and some central Eastern Valley areas have more on the ground than what is shown falling. I don't think that the specifics of this storm are remotely set yet and these snowfall maps are next to meaningless when talking about what will happen on this particular day. But I'm posting them more to speculate on a potential model output issue and keep it in mind going forward. Snow depth
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