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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Steady but very light snow falling. Don't expect it to amount to anything at all. It's the kind where you have to run your wipers every minute or so to clear off the misty look it gets from melting against it.
  2. John1122
    Looks like the Euro has a clipper system in the same time frame that the GFS has the gulf system. Lots of time to go, but both models are at least showing somewhat favorable temperatures for snow to fall in parts of the valley, GFS scenario favors the Plateau and west for now (though I think it'd be good for all of us) and the Euro is Plateau and East, above 40 for the most part, as clippers tend to favor those areas.
  3. John1122
    If you look at the reanalysis animations Holston posted last week, of Decembers past, you'll see some memorable snow events on one or two of them. They often took essentially the same exact path the storm on the GFS takes from 222-234. To say the least, it's likely to change a million times, but I'd take the path from near Panama, to near Charleston to over Eastern NC every time. I believe there'd be more snow than the GFS puts down with that path. I know there would be if it were December 20th instead of December 5th.
  4. John1122
    We had some nice snow showers around this morning. Pretty to see for sure. Hopefully they manage to continue as the day rolls on.
  5. John1122
    The 3k NAM is spitting out 2-4 inches around my area in persistent snow showers. Probably above 2000-2500 feet. It's the most aggressive of the models with the snow showers. But they persist for the better part of 48 hours on the hi-res models. I'm just hoping to see flakes since I was in Florida for the snow showers last week that dusted the ground.
  6. John1122
    Interested to see if we can squeeze a storm with potential in the brief overlapping forecast -NAO/+PNA combo the ens forecast shows. Outside of that, we look to stay chilly for the next couple of weeks. We are easily in the window where snow can fall here with the proper track in early December. Getting that track seems to be an issue, as models generally forecast a parade of cutters in the near term. If the Euro is to be believed we could have a severe event in the day 8-10 time frame rather than any snow.
  7. John1122
    Too many mental mistakes by the Vol veterans in that game. Grant turning it over when he had a shot from 3 feet away and then fouling out on the next play where he was behind the guy just sunk the Vols. Not that there weren't plenty of other mistakes from other players as well. No clear idea why Fulkerson sees the court time he does, about 3 of every 4 plays involving him results in a bad event for the Vols. Finally, terrible game for the officials. Kansas' big man got his 4th on a bad call. But the vast majority of bad calls went against the Vols. Crazy to see that big a free throw gap in a game where both teams were playing the same style of basketball. Kansas was + 14 on FT attempts before the Vols ever started fouling on purpose. It's only November but that is a win that would give the Vols seeding advantage in March and they just melted like snow on a 50 degree sunny day once Grant went out. A troubling sign from a team full of veteran players.
  8. John1122
    Vols have went brain dead and let Kansas tie it. How you can have Kansas' big guy out there with 4 fouls and not even make him defend is beyond me.
  9. John1122
    Shocking return home, 84 to 43 upon returning from South Florida.
  10. John1122
    Actually forgot to add November to that total. 45 inches fell that winter. 44.5 of it fell Nov 29th - Feb 28th. March, as I noted, only saw a few dustings here.
  11. John1122
    The December 31st event spilled into January with half a foot falling on Jan 1st. It was mostly cold til mid-month with 4 inches falling on the 12th. It never got as frigid in January though, it was sub zero in December, approaching -10. Jan 18th til Feb 5th was mostly a thaw. Upper 40s to upper 50s for highs. After that it was below normal for the most part for the rest of the month. Not frigid but cold. It finished slightly BN for January even with the warm up, it snowed a few inches during the month. In February it was classic Nino temps, it wasn't very cold for lows but the highs were very suppressed. The month ended at about -6 with decent snows of 3-8 inches on the 6th, 19th-21st and the 28th which was the largest event. That one got BNA to Knoxville and points north with 4-8 inches. March warmed up fast after the 1st, but had a big cold shot the last of the month. It ended at -2 temp wise but without more than a few small trace snow events. The Nov-March period was BN every month, and right at 42 inches of snow fell during that time. December was the prize winner with just over 20 inches falling, December was also the coldest of the months finishing at 10 degrees BN for the month.
  12. John1122
    I've seen the 63-64 winter analog used several times so far in various winter forecasts. That year started quickly. Large snows of 2 inches to way more in several cases, fell on November 29th, December 2nd, December 18th, December 22nd, December 23rd, and December 31st. Snow also fell from a trace to .5 inches on November 30th, December 1st, 8th, 9th, 10th, 13th, 14th, 24th, and 27th.
  13. John1122
    Missing the snow back home, had to settle for this on a 76 degree evening.
  14. John1122
    Had a report from back home that the snow was "grasshopper deep". I'll have to try for an explanation. I'm thinking .15-.25.
  15. John1122
    Been snowing back home from what I've heard. Warm and sunny the first half of the day here. Changed to cloudy and 78 this afternoon. If you guys pay for a vacation for me in February I'm sure we can pull off a winter storm.
  16. John1122
    Left this morning to 35 degrees and frozen fog riming the mountains just above me, to 80 and humid in Florida. Crazy how fast it warmed driving down 75. Valdosta Ga was 57 on the car and Ocala, Fl was 77.
  17. John1122
    Congratulations to all seeing flakes. Giving a dusting to 1/2 inch for my area tomorrow evening into tomorrow night. Temps were colder than expected this morning when I left for Florida. Heavy frozen fog was sticking to the mountains above 2400 feet or so. So it apparently was well below freezing there. Topped out at 37 back at my house. Quite a different picture in Florida. 80 and fairly humid where I'm at now just after midnight.
  18. John1122
    The Euro/GFS backed off quite a bit on the amounts of snow in the western areas, as did the NAM. The NAM has a massive ice storm now, and further east than before. These are the wobbles I was talking about, small ones have big consequences on the heavy snow axis.
  19. John1122
    Winter weather advisories are up for the Western Valley, from Eastern Arkansas, West Tennessee, Northern Miss and SW Kentucky. Ice should develop overnight in these areas and transition to snow by tomorrow night. 1-4 inches look likely across most of the Western Valley with isolated spots possibly going higher. Per Memphis NWS the area will spend 48 hours below freezing just above the surface with surface temps struggling to rise above freezing. Very impressive event for any month there, let alone mid-November. There is also a chance of some brief freezing precip in the far NE Valley, though that may be contained to Western North Carolina.
  20. John1122
    Many times it's where the maximum amount of moisture that can still fall as frozen will set up. Basically the colder the atmosphere the less moisture it holds. It seems to play out often when it's snowing south of here along the northern gulf states. You'll see an area around 20-40 miles north of the rain/snow line that gets hit harder than surrounding areas.
  21. John1122
    Right where the rain/snow line sets up will probably see the heaviest snow, tough to ever tell with these systems though, wobbles of 30 or 40 miles have major effects on the ground. I'd like my chances best in SW Kentucky or NW Tn still, not sure that the totals the models are throwing out will verify but I'd say they might in isolated areas. It's usually not a bad idea to shave off 40 percent of what they show.
  22. John1122
    The Euro was colder initially than prior runs, moderate ice storm across most of Kentucky, still moderate snow in West Tn with snow spreading statewide but in much lesser amounts as the system moves away. NAM is very icy too, just crushes North Carolina, parts of NW Tennessee and the Western 2/3rds of Kentucky.
  23. John1122
    I'll be in Florida by then, so flakes are almost a guarantee. The Euro is very bullish for West Tennessee, even down to Memphis. Nice SE shift for those guys.
  24. John1122
    Our western forum area folks are still in the game for winter weather later in the week, though sadly today/tonight didn't work out for them. I hope they can pull off a few inches from the late week system. The GEM and Euro are just about 50 miles outside of our forum area with decent accumulation. They should see flakes in the air if nothing else though. Possibly some icy mix in areas as well. There's also been a few hints at a clipper rolling through late next weekend but it might be a rainy clipper here with snow closer to the Ohio River. The 12z GEFS keeps lower heights over the SE with almost no AN temps in sight as we close out November. The 20 coldest Decembers since 1948 (time of record there) in Crossville had 16 N/BN Novembers and 4 AN Novembers. 8 of the 16 were 2+ degrees below normal for November and 8 were within .5 degrees or less of normal for November. So I looked around the region to see how November led into December during that timeframe. Basically we want near normal or below if we want winter to start in December. At TRI 12 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. At TYS 14 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. At BNA 14 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. At CHA 12 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers At HSV 12 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. At LOZ 13 of the 20 coldest Decembers had N/BN Novembers. In Memphis it changed up, 11 of the 20 coldest Decembers actually had AN Novembers there. So the weather we are seeing across the area, N/BN, is a better signal for a cold start to December across most of the valley vs an AN November where you hope for a flip to cold in December. As a note, it took 2 days for Tri to erase it's +3. It's now at +.2 for the month, or essentially normal. According to how the next week plays out, it will be tough for it to finish AN for the month if the next weeks forecast comes to pass but it could if the flip to warm is dramatic. The Canadian ESN are even colder than the GEFS and has the whole country in the freezer by the end of November. With all that said, I wouldn't be shocked if the Euro was right and both the GEFS were wrong.
  25. John1122
    The GEFS may be wrong, the GEM ens may as well, but this is the look the GEFS is throwing out for the next 16 days. That is getting us into the last 3-4 days of November. Tri may be the exception in the region because it's been way warmer compared to average than the balance of the valley. But if these actually come to pass, there just won't be any way for the majority of the region to finish above normal unless the last 3-4 days of Nov are 80/60 or something crazy. Especially considering places like Huntsville, Memphis and Crossville are in the -2 to -3 range for the month already. As for the GEPS, it's even colder than the GEFS over this period. Granted, both may be wrong and we won't verify nearly that cold.
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