Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,688

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    It may fortell blocking, but it doesn't seem to fortell cold/warm winters. Probably the one thing I did notice was that in winters that it was negative and cold, it tended to be when it was dropping from positive to negative rather than late in its negative cycle. But I'm not sure anything could be inferred from that because as I mentioned, sometimes it's deeply negative and we torch. Sometimes it's positive and we freeze. The opposite of those seem to occur as well. We are fridgid when it's negative and warm when it's positive. I would have thought 2006 would have been extremely cold if it was going to lead to blocking. It was dropping into record low territory through fall 2005. Instead of blocking in the N Atl we had the SE ridge and the lowest temp in Knoxville for the whole month of January was 24. There are often days when it's not that warm for the high in January with good blocking in place. I'll look more closely at sensible weather when it's negative vs positive. But in 1959-60 there was incredible Atlantic blocking when it was positive. I believe that 1977-78 was also a blocky time in the Atlantic and it was positive. There are other examples of it being negative with no blocking to speak of as well, like 2005-06. So there are certain signals that seem to be much more of a guarantee regarding sensible weather here. PNA/AO/NAO trump all other signals in my opinion, including ENSO. The PDO is also a strong signal to see what the weather will do here as well. The PDO trumped a super Nino and a +NAO a couple years ago and delivered enough cold to produce savage winter weather. There are other signals that seem to have less impact or at least less is known about their impact. I feel like the QBR is one of them.
  2. John1122
    Looking at the QBO reveals extremely mixed results heading into winter. 1984-1985 was a negative summer that went neutral to positive in winter. As a matter of fact, it was -27.10 in August of 1984. A record low at the time, after being -25.39 in July of 1984, also a record low. In 2005-06 that record was broken, but then it peaked down in November at -29 after having set a record the prior month at -28, it managed to stay in the -25 range for December. That was not a good winter for snow/cold lovers. It was actually one of, if not the warmest winters I recall. Both 1984-85 and 2005-2006 were weak La Nina years. But absolutely opposite in the intensity of winter. In 1959-1960 it was positive the entire winter. In 1995-1996 it was very weakly negative. In 1977-1978 it flipped from negative to positive in summer and stayed positive in winter. So to me, it seems to have little effect on the intensity of the winter we experience. We can be extremely mild while it's deeply negative and we can be extremely cold and snowy while it's positive. Then the opposite seems to occur too with about the same frequency. So I'm not sure it's a particularly useful tool to try and make a winter forecast. November can be very key though. We virtually always have a cold/snowy winter if it's the temps average below normal in November.
  3. John1122
    I was reading some information last night about the winters of 100 to 200 years ago in the region. It's incredible. 10 inches of snow on May 20th on the Plateau with feet in the Smokies, and I believe 2 inches in Knoxville. Snow fell in Tennessee but didn't stick in June 1865. The high temperature on July 4th in 1816 was likely in the 40s in Knoxville. There were multiple 15+ inch snow events in the valley region but there were no official records. Only newspaper reports. Throughout the 1800s and into the Early 1900s the Tennessee river would freeze over in Knoxville and ice flows from the Clinch and other tributaries would flow into Knoxville. At one point the river froze so solidly that it was 12 inches thick in the middle and people were driving wagons across it. It snowed so regularly in December Knoxville had a sleigh festival on a yearly basis. In more recent times there was the wild November 1952 snow storm that effected Corbin Ky to Scott County to the Tri-Cities down through Knoxville to Athens. I was reading an old newspaper report from then that said a man who lived in Powell worked in Kingston for TVA. He left Kingston with no snow on the ground and arrived in Knoxville to find 12 inches in West Knox county and 20 inches by the time he arrived in Powell. It was an incredible cut-off from no snow to over a foot of snow. There was the crazy 1951 event from the Plateau west where that area was buried in snow and ice, but the Knoxville to Tri-Cities area only received .2 inches of ice and didn't get nearly as cold as Nashville. Tri-Cities was 60 degrees on Jan 31st, Knoxville, barely west of Tri was 44, and west of Knoxville it was in the 20s and 30s with freezing rain, sleet and snow all day. The next day it was 62 at Tri, a midnight high of 45 in Knoxville and 22 in Nashville. Areas from the Plateau west ended up with 3-5 inches of solid ice compacted on the ground and temperatures 20-30 degrees colder than the far eastern valley areas. We had similar weather a few years ago here in the February blitz but not quite to the extreme of that event. I enjoy looking back through old news paper articles to see this stuff.
  4. John1122

    ENSO

    John1122 replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    If we can keep it moderate to weak, that will bode much better for winter, especially early winter. Looks like a decent bet that it will land in that range.
  5. John1122
    That was a great event for the whole state basically. I was lucky enough to stay all snow and ended up with 13 inches. I believe the central valley and central plateau of East Tennessee had some major mixing issues with freezing rain and sleet.
  6. John1122
    In reply to Carvers post in the spring/summer pattern thread about El Nino being back loaded. I've seen both front loaded and back loaded. 2009-2010 started fast and furious and never let up until late February. A couple years ago it was super back loaded and we got bombed in February. Here are some of our Nino Decembers. Early December of 1957 it snowed 3 inches and got to -7 degrees then warmed up later in the month. Strong Nino December of 1958 it was frigid, around 5 degrees below normal for the month, lots of lows in the 10s, snowed just over 2 inches for the month. Very dry with only 1.5 inches of rain total. December of 1963 it was super cold for December. 8 days in the single digits for lows, peaking down at -5 on 12-19. It snowed on 14 days of the month, the last 10 days were pure winter. 7 inches of snow on 12-22, 8 inches on 12-23, 7 inches on 12-31. December of 1965 it was a drought. It was average to above on temps. Snowed a couple of times, December 1st it was 9 degrees. Less than 1 inch of rain for the month. Strong Nino December of 1968 it was below normal on temps, snowed on 8 days, 2 inches was the biggest event on 12-4-68. 10 days with lows in the 10s, highest temp was 57. Coldest day was 24/13 with snowshowers on 12-15-68. December of 1969, which was a weak Nino, was cold with a huge snow event on Christmas day with 8 inches falling. Snow fell on 13 days of the month. December of 1972 was a torch, around 5 degrees above normal for the month. There were still a few cold/snow showery days but overall wet with 10 inches of rain, and warm. December of 1976 was cold, snowed on 5 different days, snowed 2 inches on 12-21, snowed an inch on the 29th, the temp shot p to 50 and it changed to rain on the 30th, but it switched back to snow and snowed 1.5 inches on the backside of the system. 12-31 was the coldest day at 23-2. December of 1977 was about 2 degrees below average overall and it snowed on 10 different days. None were more than .5 inches though. December of 1979 was mild, 2 degrees above average but snow fell on 4 different days of the month, also less than .5 inches each event. This was a weak Nino and it's a rareish one that was above normal in December. December of 1982 was very warm, around 6 degrees above normal with 8 inches of rain. We had a 5 inch snow during the month though. Very strong Nino. December of 1986 had a few days of snowshowery weather and was around 1 degree below normal overall for the month. This general pattern continues, if the Nino is strong or very strong, December is probably going to be AN and either very wet or very dry. If the Nino is weak or moderate, it's often game on in December, but not always.
  7. John1122
    The -NAO/-AO is going to eventually return for winter, but it's a believe it when I see it thing for me at this point. This is the worst time of year for me weather wise, over the heat but knowing it's still got weeks and weeks to go. Fortunately it's not so bad right now. Generally spending a week in late July/August in the upper 70s isn't too bad at all and it looks like I'll be there for the next 5-6 days.
  8. John1122
    This is one of those days where you can look at the radar and see the plateau and mountains. The rain just developed and is sitting over both areas.
  9. John1122
    Wide spread downed trees and power outages here. Power is still out in portions of the county. Rained 1.75 inches and I'd guess peak winds at 60-70mph.
  10. John1122
    Extremely heavy t-storm passing my area as we speak. Winds are probably gusting to 60mph, I'd estimate the rainfall at 3+ inches per hour at this rate. Looks like a bow echo on radar.
  11. John1122
    Just had a very high wind/heavy rain storm roll through. Winds justified the severe warning. Sideways sheets like you'd see in a hurricane, was hard to hold the car in the road from the wind.
  12. John1122
    Tornado warned cell in Lincoln/Casey Co in SE Kentucky. The storm will approach the I-75 corridor over the next hour.
  13. John1122
    It's been like Hawaii here the past few weeks. There's been about 6 days with rainbows and multiple doubles.
  14. John1122
    The SPC reasoning for the moderate risk area. It's crazy that there's an excessive heat warning right where the storms are getting fired up in Arkansas and West Tennessee. Memphis is supposed to have a HI around 115 today. I'm not sure I remember areas having excessive heat warnings and enhanced/moderate risk outlooks for severe at the same time.
  15. John1122
    The only tornado in my area in recent times was a July f3. Gonna be keeping an eye out for this one.
  16. John1122
    I've been going to 7 on 7 events already. I love football and the weather that comes with it. I know we have long stretches of heat, often high heat this time of year and beyond, but it seems easier to deal with after July 4th, if nothing else because the days are getting shorter and shorter was we head into August.
  17. John1122
    The GFS definitely has a warm bias when you look at it's temp outputs lately. It's had quote a number of days at 98-101 in the region so far this summer and it seems to run 5-7 degrees too high normally.
  18. John1122
    Temps have really spiked today in the lower elevations of my area. Changing the sand in my friends pool filter at 1200 feet and it's 96 in the shade on his thermometer. It's about 5 feet off the ground on the north side of the building over grass, so it's probably pretty close.
  19. John1122
    It was as cold an outbreak I can recall here that featured no snow on the ground. I was subfreezing for almost a month straight. Had we been able to get snow cover, double digits below zero probably would have happened in my area. The scientist I was referring to said that we still are a few years from the low activity peak of 24 but that we are already experiencing less sun activity than the lowest point of cycle 23.
  20. John1122
    Currently in a panel with an NASA astrophysicist who is talking about the extremely low sunspot activity we are approaching over the next 2 to 3 years as she is linking them to extreme cold out breaks. She feels we are going into an extended minimum and so far she's mentioned that the little ice age featured 4 consecutive extended minimums and that the year without a summer also featured an extended minimum. She has also spoken about an extended minimum in the late 1970s that led to those winters, including a downward peak that featured a July snow event in Michigan. The panel is almost over, but I wanted to write that out while it was still fresh.
  21. John1122
    Heavy rain and as was pointed out above, very loud thunder early this morning. Looks like I might not get out of the 80s this weekend now and that the higher chances of rain will return by Monday. I'm at 4.4 inches of rain since Tuesday. I'm almost 10 inches above normal for the year to date.
  22. John1122
    Powerful thunderstorm swept through here, downed trees and quarter-sized hail along with extremely heavy rain. It's been another very rainy several days here and it looks to continue for at least a day or two before it heats back up. Hopefully some of the heat is blunted by the high moisture content in the soil.
  23. John1122
    I've managed a pretty rainy week. Had heavy rain Tuesday evening and it rained a good portion of the day today.
  24. John1122
    I love to fish in those creeks and rivers in the Obed. Great for smallmouth.
  25. John1122
    After a hot, dry week, been drenched the last few days. Currently downpouring to add to the 3 inches of rain this weekend.
×
×
  • Create New...