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John1122

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  1. John1122
    I will end the year with 81.37 inches of rain, breaking the record set last year, with around 90 years of observations within a 4 mile area here.
  2. John1122
    The GEFS mean through 240 is around .75-1 inch in Jonesboro/Tupelo/Memphis/Chattanooga/Huntsville. 2 inches in Nashville/Clarksville/Cookeville/Knoxvile. 3 inches Crossville/Bristol/Tazewell. 4+ in SWVA. As noted by the individual members it's not a case of 5 monster storms and a bunch of blanks, it's more a lot of members showing around 1-4 inches that gives the mean. That mean almost doubles through 384 along areas north of 40 and especially border areas in Kentucky/VA/Northern Tn. So we might have the warmth to deal with now and will probably see it come back strong a few times in the next few weeks, but we should get the cold and we could have some chances to see white ground over that time frame. The Euro cold shot towards the end of it's run is the kind that would likely result in snow showers hanging around all day as temps struggle to get out of the mid 20s.
  3. John1122
    GEFS still saying we should see something in the next 6-10 days with every member having at least something somewhere in the Valley region.
  4. John1122
    The Euro has two shots of cold and a clipper that puts some snow in the air for a lot of us and snow on the ground for some of us. It's downright frigid at the end of its run.
  5. John1122
    If the 1954 connection continues into 1955 we may be in luck. January started warm that year. Another 70 in Knoxville in the first week of the month. The second half turned cold and there was a big snow event in the 3rd week of the month. February was up and down with another decent event during the month.
  6. John1122
    Thundered here a bit ago. GFS has snow showers in about 5 days.
  7. John1122
    That's impressive. I only made it to 66 today. Which is still extremely warm, but 76 is crazy.
  8. John1122
    Yes, it runs out several weeks like the Euro weeklies. It's resolution is 38km for long leads and 27km like the old GFS in the 10-16 day range. The lower the km the higher the resolution. The Euro for instance, is 9km through 240 hours. The old GFS used to be 27km beyond 240, which is why it switched to 12 hour panels. The new GFS is 13km to the end of the run, which is why it now has 6 hour panels all the way to 384.
  9. John1122
    It's not very skilled for things like that. It's more a broad pattern, longer range model.
  10. John1122
    Some big dogs in there on the GEFS through the time frame the Euro/GGEM was showing the event.
  11. John1122
    06Z GFS a little faster and a little further south than the Euro/GGEM. Rounds the base of the Apps instead of running west of them. Thumps the Plateau and gives a smaller but still very decent event to other areas along and north of 40. Several cold days in this time frame, lows in the single digits and high in the mid to upper 10s in the deeper snowpack areas.
  12. John1122
    Euro was close to the Canadian. Smashed NE Arkansas and NWTn through Kentucky. Icy for Northern Middle.
  13. John1122
    The Ensemble mean will spit out weird looks sometimes when individual members are in different camps.
  14. John1122
    Not saying the GFS is right but its been verifying better than the GEFS lately, the Euro is still beating both. But even it's only verifying at 35 percent at day 10 at 500mb.
  15. John1122
    It was transient on the run, but the +PNA and -EPO team up around 180 and the Alaska ridge shoots into the Arctic and pops a -AO. The GFS tries to go back to a western trough at the end but the Ridge is building back towards Alaska again at that point.
  16. John1122
    I don't have a lot of trust in the models right now, but they are finally starting to reel in the cold. it's now well inside day 10 for the first cold shot.
  17. John1122
    Major Arctic blocking on the GFS, Canada loaded with cold and a lobe of the polar vortex headed for the Great Lakes. Looks like we are in for repeating very cold shots if its correct.
  18. John1122
    Frigid with upslope/clipper prospects around day 7 to 10 on the GFS.
  19. John1122
    The EPO, when positioned right, is probably the best driver for us valley wide.
  20. John1122
    I saw some big hitters on the EPS Ens. A few valley wide smashers.
  21. John1122
    After seeing the reality that Tennessee basketball is awful, I need something positive model wise to help me through the winter.
  22. John1122
    Gonna hope the EPS isn't another headfake and it starts a trend. We've spoke often though, of how often the headfake happens when a pattern is locked in.
  23. John1122
    I'd never seen anything like it, I parked it in about 8 or 9 inches of slushy snow. When it went below 0 it just lifted it. A local business I frequent didn't get it's parking lot cleared and it turned into a skating rink, there was about 5-6 inches of compacted ice that driving across and sun basically polished. They finally got someone with a bobcat to come break it up because it wasn't melting in that cold wave. If we could get the EPO ridge 500-800 miles East we'd be in big business.
  24. John1122
    At one point the snow had a dump of rain into it, then more snow then below 0 cold, one of my vehicles actually had it's wheels lifted off the ground when the ice expanded below it and basically jacked it up.
  25. John1122
    2010 was of course quite snowy and persistently cold. The MJO went low amplitude from 3 to 7 from January 1st to the 21. January 1st - 13th only had 1 day above freezing. We had a warm up when it went into 5-6 and 7. Then after about a week in 7, we cooled back down for the first two weeks of February where it hung out in 7-8. By looking it takes several days for it to warm up once it gets to 4-5 then it's warm in 5-6 and it takes several days to cool down when it's in 7. If it's in the COD it seems to tend cooler than normal even if it's in the COD near 5-6.
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