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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Yep, it has a rain to extremely heavy snow changeover for elevation areas/north of 40. It also appears to be showing rain on it's map but counting it as snow. Oddly, it has a weaker high further west and less favorable track than the GFS but the source cold with it is much much more impressive. Below 0 cold in the midwest. Looking at the 850s etc, they are bizarre on there, with random areas of the map being above freezing while areas south are below freezing. Also shows heavy snow over my area with the 850s never getting below freezing until 9 inches have fallen and the 540 line 150 miles NW of me. It shows part of NC under the 552 line, 75 mile NW of the center of the LP getting heavy snow. All in all, I'd say the snow map is way off. Probably be freezing rain in NW NC, and all rain here.
  2. John1122
    That's a snow map north of 40 most of the time on the GFS. That HP over SE Wisconsin would deliver enough cold North of 40 to get the job done in most cases. It's a fairly cold air mass with it, temps appear in the mid-10s under it at mid-day.
  3. John1122
    I first read that map as f departure but then notice it was c departures. Still may be a shade too warm.
  4. John1122
    The departures are also around -6 just to the East of Nashville. It's an ever expanding heat corridor with so much development in the metro area.
  5. John1122
    Tri is at -2 through yesterday and will fall some with todays cold anomaly. It's currently the 26th coldest November at Tri. If it falls to -2.4 from it's current (very possible) and could finish there it would rise into the top 20 range of coldest Novembers. It's bizarre as this looks like the first time it's happened in such a dramatic fashion, or at least the first time since Tri has been keeping records. Literally every other year is very close across the entire region. The rest of the Valley region from Jackson Ky to Knoxville to Chattnooga to Huntsville is within 2 or so degrees of each other and Tri is 4 degrees different.
  6. John1122
    The November/January correlation is the same for BNA as it is for Crossville. Same years as well. So being -4 for the month in Nashville should be a positive there. Knoxville has 3 different years vs those two, 1918, 1994 and 1912 for their top 10 coldest January temps. All three of those saw -2.5 to -4 for November. Knoxville and Cha may be the only stations in the region that didn't have January 1977 as the coldest. They are 3-5 degrees warmer than Tri, Crossville and Nashville for January of 77. Must have gotten warm nosed more often.
  7. John1122
    Tri-Cities coldest Januarys + November anomaly. January 1977 coldest at Tri. November 76 coldest ever at Tri -9.2. January 1978 2nd coldest at Tri. November 77 AN same as Crossville. January 1940 3rd coldest at Tri. November 39 -5. January 1985 4th coldest. November 84 -5. January 1970 5th coldest. November 69 -7 January 2014 6th coldest. November 13 -4.5 January 1981 7th coldest. November 80 -2.8 January 1966 8th coldest. November 65 -.5 January 1948 9th coldest. November 47 -3.2 January 1979 10th coldest. November 78 +3 (2003 was colder at Crossville and came in it's top 10 over 1979, 2003 was 11th at Tri) This year is odd in that Tri and Crossville are around .5 of each other in what constitutes normal temps. All these years are the same during the era of record keeping at Crossville for coldest Januarys and the November temps are easily within 1 degree or so at each location. Except this year Crossville is at -6 and Tri is at -2. Huge gap that seems to have never been the case over the last 70 years.
  8. John1122
    November 94 was a blowtorch, +5 AN in my area. December continued that trend and it was +5 as well. January was +1 and February was -2 with a few snow events. The biggest was 6 inches in early February. It was one of the top 5-10 warm Novembers around the Valley region in the last 70 years.
  9. John1122
    I recommend uploading images to https://imgbb.com/ or a similar site. It's easy and won't eat your hosting space up here. It goes fast here. There it's fine.
  10. John1122
    14 this morning with a high of 34 this after noon. It snowed for 30 hours, albeit lightly and was sub freezing for 38 hours here, in November.
  11. John1122
    Through yesterday November temps are at around -4 to -6 across the western 2/3rds of the valley. Today will lower those a bit. Tomorrow will be near normal on average and the final day of the month will be above normal. So we should see -2ish around Tri. -3.5 to -4 around Knox. -4.5 around Cha. -5.5-6 along the Plateau from London Ky to Huntsville. -4 around Nashville. -6 around Clarksville and Memphis. November will be a top 10 coldest ever at Huntsville, Crossville, Jackson Tn, Clarksville, Jackson Ky and Memphis (top 5 ever for some of these areas). Top 15-20 coldest for BNA, CHA, London, Ky. Top 20ish for TYS. I think it's 21st right now before today's -15 to -20 comes in. This doesn't lock down a cold/snowy winter. But it is a characteristic of the greater majority of memorable winters here. 59-60, 62-63, 76-77, 84-85, 95-96, 13-14, 14-15 show up among these. At Crossville Jan 77 is the coldest ever. It followed the coldest November ever in 76. Jan 2014 is the 3rd coldest ever at Crossville. It followed the November of 13 which is about .5 degrees warmer than this November so far at -5. Jan of 85 is the 4th coldest at Crossville. It followed November of 84 and it's -4.5 anomaly at Crossville. The 5th coldest January at Crossville was 1970. November of 1969 was -6.8 at Crossville. The 7th coldest January ever at Crossville is 1963. November of 62 was -4 at Crossville. Rounding out the top 10 coldest Januarys at Crossville are 2003, 1981, and 1961. There we find that November 2002 was -5 at Crossville. November 1980 was -3 at Crossville. November 1960 was -2 at Crossville. So 8 of the 10 coldest Januarys ever recorded in Crossville were following Novembers that were at least -2 degrees. Of the two others, one was -.4 from normal and only one of the 10 was AN for November. That was November 1970 and it was +2. So 9 of the 10 coldest Januarys ever at Crossville followed Novembers that were below normal, several of those were very similar to this November.
  12. John1122
    GFS and Euro continue to be at odds over next Tuesday. The GFS has various southern stream solutions, from a favorable Gulf track to a cutter over the last 24-48 hours. Euro is consistent with a clipper from the northern stream of varying strength. Canadian is a weak southern stream system as well.
  13. John1122
    Steady snow has picked up after dark. It tends to do that here in flow events. Otherwise bitter cold, midnight high of 29, temps went down all day long.
  14. John1122
    MRX put out a SPS for the band over central Sullivan, says an inch possible from it over the Tri-Cities airport/Blountsville area.
  15. John1122
    JKL has put up an WWA for their N/E areas. Says the snow will increase overnight and up to 1 inch will fall. Those of you downstream might get in on some of that if it doesn't downslope and dry out.
  16. John1122
    Light snow showers have moved back into my area and the temp is actually falling. Down to 23 degrees.
  17. John1122
    The local Christmas parade is Saturday evening around 6 but there will be lots of float and parade prep from 3-6 as well. I'm hoping we can avoid the severe during that time frame if we can't avoid the rain.
  18. John1122
    Looking back on the Decembers following the 10 coldest Novembers over the last 60 - 70 years. 7 of the 10 of these years were 7 of the snowiest winters in my area. 2014 - December was a month long warm fest that finished about +4 AN. The lowest temp in the entire month was 22 degrees. The coldest day was the 31st when the big cold front/severe event moved through and ushered in a frigid January start. 1997 - December finished at -1.4 with another month of up and down temps. 1st week warm, second week cold, third week warm, final 5 days of the month were cold. The warmth was muted and the highest temp was only 60 but it was never rock bottom cold either, lowest temp was 10. Was mostly a dry month with about 50 percent of normal precip. 1995 - December ended at -2.5 as temps rode the roller coaster. There was a big warm up during the 1st 6 days of the month with temps in the upper 60s. The bottom fell out and there was a 24-3 degree day in the middle of a 7th-13th cold snap. After that the roller coaster went back up, with a 69-55 degree day by the 15th. It stayed above normal until the 20th and the coaster went back down again. Spent the 20th - 28th mostly below freezing, had a white Christmas from snow showers that fell every day from the 23rd-27th. 1996 - December ended at +2.6 with more wild temp swings. Had a low of 18 on December 9th and it was in the 60s on the 10th. 18th-20th were cold and snowy with temps in the lower 20s for highs. It was in the upper 50s by the 23rd. Final week of the month was in the upper 60s and pushed it from a BN month to an AN month. 1976 - December was a roller coaster this month too. It finished at -4 even with the yo-yo temps. There were stretches of +10-14 AN weather and stretches of -20 BN weather. Snow fell on multiple days. 1969 - December started cold and stayed that way until the end of the month. Finishing at -6 degrees. Snow fell multiple days of the month with a big time White Christmas storm. 1967 - December was another warm one, +3.5 degrees. Warm most of the month and then it turned cold around Christmas with several inches of snow falling the day after Christmas into the 27th. 1959 - December was mostly steadily near normal with a couple of spikes up and down, it finished at +1.5 for the month. The coldest temp for the month was 17 and the warmest was 62 and they both happened in the first week of the month. The 17 happened due to 5 inches of snow falling the day before. That was the only snow event for the month, the rest of the month was mostly mild to normal and very wet. Almost 8 inches of rain for the month. 1955 - December was -2.5 in another roller coaster of a month. Temps were all over the place with a -10 from normal day and a +15 in the first 3 days of the month. It bounced around then got cold through the middle of the month. By Christmas it warmed up and was in the upper 60s on Christmas eve and Christmas day. By New Year eve there was snow on the ground and the high was in the 30s with a low of 10. 1954 - December came in at -3.5 in a month where the cold was never extreme, merely steadily cold most of the month. Lowest low was 13 degrees. There were 7 days with lows in the 10s and 11 with highs in the 30s. Very wet month, almost 10 inches of snow fell and almost 10 inches of rain fell.
  19. John1122
    You don't often see a temp of 25 degrees at 1:00 pm in November. But here we are. Things were actually icy here this morning from some freezing drizzle that happened. Cars and steps were coated in ice with snow over the top.
  20. John1122
    This is from lower elevations at Jacksboro Walmart. I've been at a friend's house this evening and am just heading back towards the mountain.
  21. John1122
    Decent rates here have coated car tops and decks. Nickel sized flakes blowing around.
  22. John1122
    Steady but very light snow falling. Don't expect it to amount to anything at all. It's the kind where you have to run your wipers every minute or so to clear off the misty look it gets from melting against it.
  23. John1122
    Looks like the Euro has a clipper system in the same time frame that the GFS has the gulf system. Lots of time to go, but both models are at least showing somewhat favorable temperatures for snow to fall in parts of the valley, GFS scenario favors the Plateau and west for now (though I think it'd be good for all of us) and the Euro is Plateau and East, above 40 for the most part, as clippers tend to favor those areas.
  24. John1122
    If you look at the reanalysis animations Holston posted last week, of Decembers past, you'll see some memorable snow events on one or two of them. They often took essentially the same exact path the storm on the GFS takes from 222-234. To say the least, it's likely to change a million times, but I'd take the path from near Panama, to near Charleston to over Eastern NC every time. I believe there'd be more snow than the GFS puts down with that path. I know there would be if it were December 20th instead of December 5th.
  25. John1122
    We had some nice snow showers around this morning. Pretty to see for sure. Hopefully they manage to continue as the day rolls on.
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