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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    MRX rolling with the Euro based on their snow map. Can't really blame them.
  2. John1122
    It was a Tuesday-Wedneday timeframe. Around Feb 11th and 12th I think.
  3. John1122
    This is the MRX discussion from when Robert made the call about enhanced snow over East Tennessee in 2014. I don't quite think it is the same set up as here.
  4. John1122
    I won't trust it or really any model until 24 hours or less out.
  5. John1122
    The NAM is a state length slammer.
  6. John1122
    Why can't the Euro show the NAM solution?? I do not expect this to happen and hope I'm very wrong.
  7. John1122
    After the 00z suite, pretty sure I'm out of chances. Not willing to hang my hat on the ICON. But there may be some flakes in the air from Memphis to Tueplo to Huntsville to Chattanooga.
  8. John1122
    Front end thump comes and goes for our area. It's looking good for southern areas. Crazy how those areas average the same or less snow than our general area but have just crushed our forum area year after snowwise. No idea why it's gotten so much harder to snow specifically in the Tennessee valley but other areas of the South seem to get about their normal amount every year.
  9. John1122
    Frontogenesis at 700mb in purple. Also waa into the snowgrowth zone aiding moisture transport
  10. John1122
    The NAM 2 of the last 3 runs has shown very favorable frontogenesis setting up over various parts of Tennessee, when it does the precip is here and in a good amount. The frontgenesis 700mb maps aren't out yet for the 18z run but I suspect we will see it here when they come out.
  11. John1122
    The NAM at 81-84 seems pretty decent for parts of the forum area as well. Keep in mind it's the NAM at 84.
  12. John1122
    Big jump north on the Euro for the system Thursday. Precip field moved from South of Atlanta at 12z to SW Virgina at 00z. A light stripe of snow falls across a lot of the state early Thursday that run. Will see if this is a trend toward even more moisture for us or not. The HP in Iowa and moisture in Texas is a classic for us normally.
  13. John1122
    I think the HP is being over modeled. The models and especially the GFS roll these big 1045-1050 highs down all the time and they verify at 1035 when they actually arrive.
  14. John1122
    My snow season lately lasts into April. I've had far more snow in March/April than January the last several years. I used to rarely get through March without a 3+ inch event. Its usually gone 36 hours later though.
  15. John1122
    .91 in the bucket since around 3am this morning. MRX has most of the area in the 4-6 inch range by Thursday. Not sure that flash flooding will be an issue but a lot of slow rising water issues will happen at that point. I'm now at 8.17 inches of rain already for the month and had 7.35 last month. So already 8 inches or so above normal for 2020.
  16. John1122
    Not anything wintry on the Euro but 5-10 inches of rain basically valley wide over the 10 days. Basically everyone from Murfreesboro east is 300-400 percent above normal for the last 30 days according to the AHPS Precip Analysis maps. If we get to February 19th with 10-15 inches of rain in the bucket for the month, that will be staggering for flooding unless spring turns dry.
  17. John1122
    Not a pretty picture on the 18z GFS Mon-Thurs morning.
  18. John1122
    WPC day 3 outlook.
  19. John1122
    Probably out of luck on winter for the next 10 or 15 days, but extremely wet conditions are likely to continue. If you blend the GFS/Euro/GGem the entire forum likely sees 4-6+ inches of rain the next 10 days. Norris Lake went up 14 feet from the rain the other day. Another rise like that and roads are underwater again this year. Last year it got to 1030ft and low lying homes in southern Campbell co were basically on islands.
  20. John1122
    It virtually always gets cold 10-20 days after phase 7 (seeing that now) and that worked before. But it's probably too late in the year for most areas to wait that long so it not getting in 7 is good at least.
  21. John1122
    I honestly thought precip was moving in early morning down south.
  22. John1122
    Any met who mentions sun angle in early February regarding snow potential needs to reexamine climatology for February regarding snowfall in East Tennessee.
  23. John1122
    Todays 18z NAM as the precip moves out overnight Sunday. . 2 Yesterdays for the same 24 hour period. The globals have been catching back onto these events later than the meso models and have had struggles with how far west/northwest the snowfall zones are. Middle and West Tennessee did much better yesterday than the globals suggested. The event in upstate SC/Western NC last week was almost happening before the Euro caught up. I think it was 12z the morning of the event before the Euro had the precip far enough NW for it to fall as frozen.
  24. John1122
    Just in the past 24 hours the NAM has expanded the precip shield NW and made it heavier. Yesterday at 18z the 24 hour snowfall was 50 percent of what it is now with virtually nothing reaching East Tennessee. 18z unfolding now has 1-3 from the Plateau eastward.
  25. John1122
    The massive 10-12 inch rains have backed off. Granted 4 of those inches have already fallen, but it's looking more like 2-5 more over the next 10 days vs the 6-8 after this event that had been shown. Granted it will probably waffle back towards us if the colder solutions don't happen.
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