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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Ugly GFS trend this am as well. Mon 6z D12.5 Tues 6z D11.5 Wed 6z D10.5
  2. John1122
    That looks like the forum waiting on a legitimate winter threat inside D7 in 2020.
  3. John1122
    Euro Trend. Mon D10 Tues D9 Wed D8 What looked to be a 3-4 day cool shot looks more like a 12-18 hour one at this point, as we warm back to AN after spending 2-7 mostly BN and there's not a lot of BN 2m in the lower 48 or Southern Canada at D 10. BN 850s are more widespread, but sadly we don't live at 850 unless you're in Western NC or the caretaker at LeConte.
  4. John1122
    The game ended uglier than a southeast ridge.
  5. John1122
    From what I've seen it's been verifying similarly since November or December. It is much warmer than the North American models because they've been ridiculous. the off the chart GEFS had been verifying almost 8 degrees too cold.
  6. John1122
    Current 90 day model bias. Hopefully these update in the page but maybe not. Won't bother with the Canadian, because they upgraded recently, but the old Canadian was in the 4-5+ degrees top cold at every period from 2-5 through 11-15. The most accurate 2-5 day temp forecast was NWS forecast offices, almost mirrored by GFS MOS. For longer range the Euro Op was best, but the GFS OP is surprisingly better than the Ensembles. The Canadian stunk at every level. Euro Ens GFSENS Euro Op GFS OP
  7. John1122
    Unfortunately what looked like favorable times have started to fade. The GEFS is clinging to Phase 3 still, but it's on an island. A week ago things looked much better, seeing the Euro creeping it into Phase 4 is tough.
  8. John1122
    No apologies needed. Unfortunately the GFS has warmed up late the last several runs, which is a trend, and the SE ridge returning on both models is unfortunate. Feb 6th-10th we may get lucky, but if that warmth comes back after like it's being shown, we will probably be looking at late February to turn things around at the earliest, and even that's a crapshoot, since the Euro actually has the MJO climbing into Phase 4 by the 10th. By then we are in bowling ball season, where you hope you score with a ULL or some freak event like the blizzard if you don't live at elevation.
  9. John1122
    Even with that look on the Euro at D10, the air mass is already moderating. It's been verifying about -2 D6-10 this winter, which would mean it's probably going to be basically normal. At this point it appears the SE ridge is on the EPS and GEFS with a displaced -EPO that allows for a western trough.
  10. John1122
    It has nothing to do with living any dying with every model run. We are in a hyper warm base state and the pattern for the last 4 winters have mostly stayed there outside of a brief period in 2018 when we had the cold dry weather. No drivers for cold here appear to be trending favorably in the longer range especially with the MJO looking to stay in the 4 or 5 areas even if at low amplitude. The GEFS looks opposite of the OP with the EPO, but due to it's position it also allows the SE Ridge to pop. Unfortunately the GEFS has been verifying about 6 degrees too cold in the LR. Meaning it's almost always too cold which leads to it's extreme snow means that never seem to happen. It's also popped a -EPO about 40 times this winter and I think it's not verified yet on that. We all know that any model that shows a -NAO is a fairy tale too. But that massive +NAO on the GFS wouldn't be a surprise at all. These are the unfortunate realities of the GEFS D6-10 and 11-15 the last few months. Which means the long range cold that crops up there is mostly fools gold this winter. The Euro OP beats all models by far D6-10, including beating it's ensembles and it's still verifying 2 degrees or so to cold D6-10. So when the GFSENS are showing us at -1 in day 11-15, it's probably going to verify at +3-5 degrees. I shudder to think how warm we may be if the GFS is right, and it's better day 11-15 than it's Ens on temperature but still verifies too cold by a few degrees the last 90 days.
  11. John1122
    Unfortunately the trends aren't great and the season is slipping by fast. I'd say any sustained winter pattern isn't going to happen at this point, our best chance is getting one of those random quick hitters that will likely be melted off within 48 hours. The MJO, except on the GEFS, is staying in unfavorable locations now, never leaving the right side on most modeling. The GEFS has been heading right with it itself, it was low amp 8-1-2-3 recently, now it's middle of the C.O.D into 3. 3 is good for winter hear but it's on an island at this point. Other modeling seems to have it in the C.O.D of 4-5, which are not good for us. The GFS keeps throwing out big fantasy storms every other run, but so far it's verification rate on them this year is 0.00 percent. We probably have to score something between February 6th and 10th as we get a couple of cold days in that time frame. If we torch up again beyond that, we will have burned away most of low elevation winter. This is not what you want to see unless you want some February severe possibilities. -PNA/+EPO/+AO/+NAO with the MJO heading towards phase 4 even on the GFS suite by this time. This is a repeat of the pattern that torched us the first week or two of January. Hopefully it's wildly wrong, but it's handled warmth much better than cold this year.
  12. John1122
    Not surprisingly, the Euro was much warmer vs the 12z run at D9/10. Canada is cold but there's no penetration into the upper midwest that run so our cold source is 10+ degrees warmer than 12z today so we basically get down to near normal. The Euro shows a -10 BN over Nashville the morning of the 7th. But it shows a 2m temp of 24 there during that frame. I believe Nashville's normal low is 28 around this time frame. So the -10 may be a little bit overdone on the anomaly map. But even that is brief, afternoon temp hit the 40s. The western ridge is south of the PNA region and the heights are lower in Alaska which once again just means the air comes off the Pacific instead of across the pole. GEFS is awful. Western trough/SE ridge. GFS op will have spring flowers in bloom late in the run. I'm pretty sure if that takes place into mid February, winter is basically done but we will see if we can get lucky.
  13. John1122
    Trends have gotten worse for the event 48-60 hours from now. Another decent track but elevation snow system. SWVa might get an inch or two. Looking tough for the rest of us below 2500 feet. January is going to close out as one of the worst winter months in the entire history of the sub forum for those who like cold and snow. Who knew it could be that much worse than the putrid 2019.
  14. John1122
    Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
  15. John1122
    Euro gives a few flakes with the mid week system, mainly in elevated areas. By D10 a storm cut the Apps and gives some snow the northern part of the western forum areas. Big East based NAO at day 10 with some minor Alaska and West coast ridging tries to come around day 9 that appears to be beaten back quickly by another low in the Alaska area. Hopefully the EPS carries into something favorable. An East based NAO with heights East of Greenland tend to promote cutters and miller Bs that bring snow to places like Indianapolis, St Louis, Columbus Ohio etc while not getting a lot done here.
  16. John1122
    GFS is a little better, doesn't get it done for us but NW trend definitely on the precip shield. Still low level warm issues. Keep having these early spring type looks where even good tracks rain low and snow above 4000ft.
  17. John1122
    Nope, no luck for the rest of us. NW areas and Western NC are the winners that run. Really strange, TBH, 850s are 0 or less into Georgia, the 540 line is south of Birmingham and Atlanta but surface temps are in the 40s overnight and most of us rain.
  18. John1122
    West Tennessee gets a nice backside thumping there. Looks like we night horseshoe with snow in western NC and West Tennessee but rain mostly for the rest of us. Hope the backside works it's way across the state but looks like it might lift NE instead.
  19. John1122
    Looks like the frozen line dips into the Northern Plateau by 60. 18z Nash to Knox was seeing snow. This run Bowling Green to Tazewell is more the area. Fine details but this is a border line cold event. It arriving overnight into very early morning is one thing in the favor of the areas from your Plateau west.
  20. John1122
    Yep. Through 57 hrs the frozen line is a good 80 miles north of the 18z frozen line. Typical luck.
  21. John1122
    NAM coming in stronger but warmer for the midweek system. Won't be surprised if it shows all rain south of Kentucky this time.
  22. John1122
    Day 10 on the Euro, deep trough in the SW, eastern ridge. Mostly AN to well AN. No snow outside the NC high elevation border areas. Just can't seem to reel anything in at this point. Winter of 1993 was awful like this. A trace of snow all winter until February 25th-26th when we got 4 inches. Then of course the blizzard hit and made it one of the most memorable winters in history from the Plateau eastward. But most winters that go this poorly never recover in any significantly wintery way.
  23. John1122
    GFS has lost its mind late run. Appears to have a major coastal low coming out of the gulf and a very strong cutter in Arkansas at the same time. Never even seen that from a model before, let alone reality.
  24. John1122
    Played pretty well considering. Had Azabuike not been allowed to commit about 40 fouls we might have even won the game.
  25. John1122
    Tennessee is giving is giving us the d9-11 -EPO look right now.
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