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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    The Euro was indeed much warmer. I lose around 26 inches off my totals from 12z today. No biggie. It was an epic 24 hours or so of model watching, now the GFS/CMC/Euro have very similar snowfall maps for our region since the Euro folded to the GFS with this run. The mountains still look to do very well. Probably 3-6 inches for the Plateau and border counties with Kentucky and Virginia. SEKY and SW Virginia look like the are still in the game for double digits.
  2. John1122
    Last night, Louisiana to here with these 850s. Tonight at the same hour.
  3. John1122
    I only have the 24 hour Euro maps right now, but the SE forum just flew off the cliff, apparently not good for them. Though to look at the 24 hour panels it doesn't look any different than the 00z run last night, actually looks better on them. Once again though with 24 hour panels, can't see many details.
  4. John1122
    Waiting on the maps from other places that may be more accurate.
  5. John1122
    The FV3 just smashes most of the state. Though not sure if the FV3 snow map on tropical is remotely correct.
  6. John1122
    The Canadian is 100 miles north of the GFS track but much colder. Not sure why the GFS keeps pumping up so much warmth at 850 vs all the other models.
  7. John1122
    About 1/4th to 1/2 inch here. Been nice sized flakes coming down for a few hours now.
  8. John1122
    Despite basically every feature looking better regarding placement of highs and lows vs it's prior run, the GFS significantly cut snow totals from it's prior run for the forum area. Especially those north of 40 from Dyersburg to the Plateau to Johnson City.
  9. John1122
    SWVA and Eastern Ky make out okay on the GFS. The thermal profile is nonsensical on the GFS for Tennessee. At one point the model output is showing rain with the 534 thickness line over the area and Sub-freezing 850s.
  10. John1122
    18z is probably going to be unimpressive for anyone outside of Western NC. Low is flatter/slower and I think much weaker. It looks like it's sliding off the coast before turning up and may be a little further east. Banana high over the top in Wisconsin/Iowa and Northern Virginia with a great track, but once again the GFS pumps the 850s up into Ohio. Edit: It winds up and slows down over the Outer Banks. Surface temperatures are hilariously stubborn over East Tennessee during the period.
  11. John1122
    Through 96 the HP kicked it in gear and is further south and east than it was at 12z. Precip shield is suppressed by about 75 miles, was just over the KY border at 12, now it's along 40.
  12. John1122
    Out to 84 the HP in Iowa is not moving out as fast as it did at 12z. This should help us out if it doesn't race ahead of the LP as quickly it will help suppress WAA.
  13. John1122
    Minor differences out to 72 on the GFS. The HP is about 75-100 miles SW of it's position on 12z. LP is in the same spot 1mb stronger.
  14. John1122
    It looks like we're about to get NAM'd.
  15. John1122
    On the Euro the snow doesn't begin until Sunday around noon in Pigeon Forge. The heaviest snow that falls there falls overnight Sunday through the day Monday.
  16. John1122
    I had to upload it at a separate hosting site. Should be working now.
  17. John1122
    The UKIE map Carvers linked to earlier. Keep in mind, it's likely still snowing when the model run ends at 144.
  18. John1122
    12z GFS Rain/Snow radar simulation.
  19. John1122
    EPS snow probs. These seem to be posting for me, but let me know if they aren't showing up. Probabilities of > 3 inches of snow. Greater than 6 inches. Greater than 12 inches.
  20. John1122
    The ones that have drifted across my area today are almost convective in nature. Very heavy snow and windy but for short times.
  21. John1122
    No sooner does Jeff post about the conveyor belt, it appears 30 minutes later in the MRX disco. They may be watching, Jeff!
  22. John1122
    Neighboring WFO in Kentucky, NC and VA have issued winter weather advisories for snow overnight and into tomorrow. Waiting to see if MRX follows suit. Fairly robust wave working through the area over the next 24 hours. Just had a burst pass through that was blinding for about 10 minutes. Hopefully they increase in frequency overnight.
  23. John1122
    I never thought I'd say this, but 3 feet of snow might be too much even for me. I can't imagine the power line wreckage.
  24. John1122
    Heavy snow falling currently, dusted everything in about 5 minutes. 35 degrees. If we get any of these after dark I could see travel issues developing in the area.
  25. John1122
    The snow depth map isn't terribly different from the snowfall map.
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