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John1122

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  1. John1122
    Through yesterday I'm at -1.9 for the month to date. That will get significantly lower over the next 10 days by the way it looks now. It should make it pretty tough for November to finish anything but BN for the month. This doesn't by any means guarantee a great winter, but it certainly eases my mind compared to AN November winters. Around the region Tri is at +3 as it has been oddly warm there. Chattanooga is at -0.7, Knoxville is at +0.7, BNA +0.2 (both will fall into BN after today) London Ky is at -0.7, Jackson Ky is at -1.5, Memphis is at -3.0, Crossville is at -2.1, Clarksville is -0.8, Jackson TN is at -1.5, Huntsville, Al is at -1.1. So pretty much the entire valley area outside of far NE TN is or will be BN for the month after today. If the GEFS is to be believed we will average -8 to -12 valley wide over days 1-5, and -6 to -8 over days 6-10 and normal in the West to -1.5 in the East over days 11-15. The average temperate for the month of November at Tri is 46.6 - record for Nov is 38.8 1976 at Tys 49.7 - record is 42.7 1951 at Cha 51.2 - record is 42.7 1976 at CSV 46.6 - record is 39.3 1976 at BNA 49.5 - record is 40.9 1976 at CKV 48.8 - record is 41.8 2000 (no station in 1976) at MEM 52.2 record is 45.5 1976 at LOZ (Ldn, Ky) 46.5 record is 36.1 1976 at HSV 51.2 record is 42.8 1976 Looking at those and looking at the records, Memphis has a shot at setting a record cold November this year, already being at -3 for the month and looking to spend the next 10-12 days around -8 to -10 on average. No one else is going to approach 1976 most likely but there is a shot if the numbers verify for some places to approach top 5 coldest November temps which are 2-4 degrees warmer than record cold years. 7 of the 10 coldest Novembers on average across the region correspond to 7 of the 10 snowiest winters in the area. So lets hope this cold snap has the teeth it appears to have now and that we can fall into the snowy winter side of the cold November analog.
  2. John1122
    The Euro also has system #2 now, ice in the Carolinas right now, rain here.
  3. John1122
    The Canadian pops the 2nd wave and rides it up the coast, but it's too warm to snow. The 850 line is hanging out in Southern Canada so it's upper 30s and raining again. It enhances the back side of wave one more and drops 1-2 inches from 40 north from Crossville to Cocke Co and points north.
  4. John1122
    Euro is steadfast in saying very little to nothing for our forum area. GFS and GEM both came in with lessened amounts. I expect the NAM will follow suit soon enough. The perfect HP/LP set up from a few days ago has disappeared. The HP that was coming down into the midwest is no where to be found. That allows the storm to track further north and it's not there to deliver enough cold. If that indeed comes to pass, the Euro will take an early 1-0 lead on the GFS . Nice to have something to track this time of year, hopefully it's more a normal thing this year than the last two.
  5. John1122
    Late in it's run, but the NAM is onboard with the GFS in nailing the NW portion of the state. Dyersburg looks to be in a nice spot to get a few inches of snow if it verifies. Timing will be favorable as will 850s. Rates would help overcome ground temps. The rest of us get the absolute misery of both a missed opportunity and rain with temps in 35-40 range. Meanwhile, much like last year and the deep south snows, this one has the potential to put areas of Northern Texas and South/Central Arkansas 2-5 times over their normal yearly snowfall totals before November is over if the American models are to be believed. The Euro is much more conservative and blanks these areas.
  6. John1122
    Euro says the ground may get white in a few areas, far NW Tn being the most likely place it happens. That same area gets buried by the experimental GFS. Looks like classic cold chasing rain, models usually over do that significantly, so for most of us, hope to see some flakes. For our W/NW areas, hopefully you actually get smacked with a nice snowfall.
  7. John1122
    Looks like the GFS is slowly moving NW with it's track. As I mentioned yesterday or the day before, the Euro track seems more likely and the GFS is slowly heading that way.
  8. John1122
    While verbatim the outcome changed some on the 0z GFS vs the 12z today. The track/intensity/hp to the northwest stayed virtually the same on the GFS. Gonna be borderline for a decent miller A storm or just a perfect track wasted if the GFS comes to pass. If it were December the 15th we'd be rocking with that path statewide or close to it.
  9. John1122
    Quite a few winters you'll see much more than Knox, especially south or west Knox. A couple of years ago the lower elevations around LaFollette picked up 20-25 inches. I believe Knox had around 5-8 inches that year. Driving from Knox for years the snowlines were North of Halls, another often set up around the Clinch River bridge, another sets up around the Anderson/Campbell line. Once you get into Campbell elevation will play another big factor. You'll see snowcapped mountains fairly often. Especially Cross Mountain above Caryville.
  10. John1122
    The Euro has been as steady running the Apps as the GFS has been taking the low road. The Canadian seems to just bounce back and forth between the two. At 500mb they are both very similar with the big western ridge. The ridge in the Atlantic is a little more westwardly prominent on the Euro and that shifts the storm track 200 miles west/nw on there. That ends up making all the difference in the world here between snow and rain.
  11. John1122
    The 12z GFS is a Miller A dream track from the Plateau and West, if it were a month from now it'd be a state wide dream come true. That path from Lake City Florida to just ESE of Columbia, SC would bring home the bacon. There have been unusual snows well South of us in recent years, it'd be nice if we managed one at one at some point in our region. The Canadian went way south and looks to bullseye East Tennessee with it's latest run.
  12. John1122
    0z GFS holds serve with it's far south/off shore solution. More widespread cold and snow showers for most of the state on that run with the system further south/east. Elevated areas see a few inches along the Plateau and Mountains. A dusting over most of the state, through I'd suspect more of a deck and rooftop type event. Canadian moved closer to the Euro with an Apps runner. Still a decent ways to go but I wouldn't be surprised to see a cutter/Apps runner come to pass. Seems more likely than the GFS solution just based on climo this time of year and the general tendency of systems to be far more likely to cut west of the Apps vs east of them. Even with the Canadian solution most of the state would see backside snow showers, but that's often overdone on models and drying tends to happen much faster than modeled.
  13. John1122
    If we can pull this look off in winter I'll be pretty happy with it. I actually think it would probably be more snow than rain if it can come to pass next week.
  14. John1122
    The Canadian seems to be somewhere in the middle of the GFS and Euro. The Euro was even more of a Lakes event at 12 than at 0z. If nothing else the models are always consistently at odds with the exact evolution of events but seem to be better at sniffing out systems in the 7-10 day range than ever.
  15. John1122
    If I schedule a trip during a month it can snow, it immediately pops into the forecast around that time frame. Like with every other month, snow in November used to be much more common in the area. Last time I had more than 1 inch in November was 2008 on the 20-21st. 3.5 inches Nov 10th 1996 with some snow falling on the 8th and 9th too. Back in the 60s several Novembers had multiple multi-inch snow events.
  16. John1122
    The GFS went full on coastal craziness on us for Nashville and points east. We'd be fighting some ground temps for sure. and the height is in the afternoon, but the sun angle this time of year is similar to early February. The Euro is well NW during this time with a major storm from Oklahoma to Michigan with some snow showers here chasing the back end. There was a member of the EPS that showed a similar event last night.
  17. John1122
    We're going to Marco Island. Leaving Wednesday evening next week. A week ago the forecast high was 86 upon our arrival. Now it's changed to 73/56.
  18. John1122
    Euro snowfall map for next week. Obviously still a ways out and the accumulation is a crapshoot at best. But 43 of 50 members of the EPS at 00z had some form of dusting or more for the various parts of the valley. Most were clustered like this snowfall map but some were more West Tennessee based, of member mauled NW Tn up through SWKY. More important to me is the significant cold being modeled. My cold November stance is well noted and this cold snap is just what I was hoping for. Hopefully it comes to pass, even though I'm going on vacation to SW Florida next week and temps when I arrive there are forecast to be 15-20 degrees below normal. The normals where I'm going is 83/64 so probably looking at 70/50ish.
  19. John1122
    Looking more and more like the first lower elevation flakes of the season are going to be possible somewhere over the valley early next week. Clarksville to Nashville and points East look most likely right now, to see snow showers. The Euro and GFS are putting out .5-1.5 on the Plateau/SEKy/SWVA with 1-3+ inches in the mountains.
  20. John1122
    Looking back on reports about the Euro weeklies from around 4-6 weeks ago, it was also depicting zonal flow towards the end of its run then. This looks to be the actual result for the time frame.
  21. John1122
    I'd actually say most of the area here is now at peak as well after taking a look around yesterday evening. It's crazy how fast it has moved. The entire process of change has happened in about 10 days. This is looking down in the 1300-1700 feet range yesterday evening from around 2800 feet. You can see much more color looking down on it.
  22. John1122
    It's had that look off and on for a few days now. Reel her in GOOFY!!
  23. John1122
    My area is at peak above 2000 feet and probably a week from peak below that. The heavy rain tomorrow may end the peak early above 2000.
  24. John1122
    For whatever reason, that is the site that won't work for me. It gives a security error no matter which browser I use to open it. Says the security certificate is figured incorrectly.
  25. John1122
    It's raw day today. 44 degrees and NW flow showers passing over.
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