Jump to content

John1122

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    10,718

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    If we don't actually start reeling something into the d7 or less range soon, just have to assume its another headfake. Meanwhile I'm forecast to get to 28 tonight. 31 I think Wednesday night and not be below freezing otherwise the rest of the week. My normals this time of year are 42-21. Those were old normals though. It's like the earth tilted and we all live 100-150 miles south of where we did a few years ago.
  2. John1122
    Winters have become like this Kansas game. It goes okay early and you get excited. Then it just inevitably grinds you down.
  3. John1122
    Mostly bleh runs at 0z. GFS tosses some 1 in a 1000 stuff at 300+. We have about 35-40 days left of true winter chances. If it doesn't improve this is easily the least snowy 4 year stretch in the last 90 years at least imby and most of the snow I've seen has been in spring.
  4. John1122
    It's those big very wet flakes that splatter the windshield.
  5. John1122
    Currently getting a rn/snow mix. 38 degrees.
  6. John1122
    There's a few good members for everyone. Parts of the forum have at least some snow on every member. There's even the obligatory Knox County snow hole on Member 13.
  7. John1122
    The GEFS has, not surprisingly, a strong mean, especially over the eastern 2/3rds of the region. 3+ inch line dips into Northern Alabama.
  8. John1122
    Several MJO forecasts are starting to see 8-1-2-3 in the COD as possibilities. GaWx pointed out that Atlanta was an average of 3 degrees colder when the MJO went through these phases in the COD vs at higher amplitude. The Australian model that runs through March 1st sends the MJO into the COD on the 8-1-2-3 area and stops it just before 4 and loops it back into 3. The GEFS goes 1-2-3 in the COD. When February 2015 turned brutally cold, especially for the 2nd half of the month through March 7th or so, the MJO was in the COD in those areas or in the very center.
  9. John1122
    It's very likely we don't see anything close to it again. It's one of the few paths towards snow for any of us with the marginal cold. Normally that storm in January or February would be golden. But the models are throwing out these storms and the results are what you'd normally seen in March or even April with great tracks but cold rain and elevated snow.
  10. John1122
    I just noticed how especially cruel to Knox County specifically that it is. That said, I would have to think we would do a little better outside elevated areas with that kind of monster taking that path East of the Apps.
  11. John1122
  12. John1122
    Phasing bomb on the Euro. Sadly too late and too warm for most Valley locations but SWVa and the mountains get to measure in feet. 3-6 on the Eastern Rim, Plateau and more in far NETN. Every one else looks like rain. It would be an all time eastern valley screw job if it went like the Euro is depicting with snow just south of Chattanooga but rain from Chatty to just NE of Morristown. When a monster phases like that and bombs to our southeast and East and its raining and in the 40s, it's tough to swallow.
  13. John1122
    No kidding. I could probably go back and look at the last two winters and days with snow actually falling and see that March and April had more days of it than January.
  14. John1122
    I just can't buy into it any more regarding the long range. This is been the winter of mythical blocking day 8-16 but it has failed every time. I will hope it's correct this time if for no other reason that it virtually always gets cold 10-15 days after the MJO moves into 7.
  15. John1122
    Waiting on the GEFS MJO forecast. It's been quickly looping into the COD and going back into the COD phase 8. Which is probably why it's been looking so wintry day 8-16. EMOM would basically end winter as it loops the MJO in 5 for the next month.
  16. John1122
    A bit of scattered snow on the GFS and Canadian inside 10 days, especially higher elevations. GFS went off the rails in the long range compared to the past few runs.
  17. John1122
    Great tracks on the GFS through198, but no cold air in the entire lower 48. That massive vortex in the gulf of Alaska just pumps in Pacific air.
  18. John1122
    The 18z GEFS saw the 2 inch mean expanded in the SW valley areas and down into northern Alabama. It's still snowing on it at the end of the run most likely.
  19. John1122
    Member 18 was no shrinking violet itself.
  20. John1122
    The Euro is frustratingly warm with decent tracks on those systems. Would probably be a snow above 3000 feet scenario if it's right on temp profiles.
  21. John1122
    Do you know the elevation of the cabin you're staying at? It makes a huge difference in upslope events in the Smokies and foothills in regards to seeing snow flurries and showers vs a long duration event with accumulation. LeConte is in a world unto itself in those events as well. It's the premiere upslope location in the entire southern Apps. Sometimes models can bleed snow over onto areas it might not quite happen at because their resolution isn't quite high enough. Especially globals. But the higher up you're staying the better chance of seeing snow and accumulation.
  22. John1122
    The GEFS snow mean actually got a little better for the Valley region vs 18z. It's not really from some massive big hitter on the individual members either. There's a pretty steady agreement across a lot of members for snow, especially along and north of 40 where the mean on there is 2+ inches.
  23. John1122
    Yep, completely different look at 500 means different everything. Pretty standard GFS flop.
  24. John1122
    Snow falling all day, 24 hours in the 20s or colder and an earthquake. Just when wintry days were starting to happen more often that earthquakes this year, along came one to even the score.
  25. John1122
    Had quite a shake from that earthquake. That was the 2nd one in almost the exact same spot in as many days.
×
×
  • Create New...