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John1122

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  1. John1122
    I'm pretty sure we all got it on that one!
  2. John1122
    I'd be giddy with 25 percent of the Euro verifying here. 00z Euro had 12-16 inches here. The UKIE is 12+. The FV3 has been throwing around 20 inch totals at various times. So it definitely has the potential to be the biggest bust ever based on modeling. I've seen the DGEX throw out 30 inches at day 7 before. Never seen there Euro show more that 15 inches imby at any range since I started following weather that I can recall.
  3. John1122
    No kidding. Just casually drops 32 inches in my backyard. Just preserve these clowns, we'll never see their like again.
  4. John1122
    This is the type of storm that occasionally occurs here and when they do they are normally not in January or February. The biggest snowfalls we've ever seen for many areas in the valley happened in November or March, outside of peak snow climatology. In elevated areas they are more prone to happen in any winter month, but for the lower areas of the valley it's either just before winter or just before spring. I can't believe that particular run of the Euro will verify, but those kind of storms have happened before and will eventually happen again.
  5. John1122
    It's about 50 miles sw of me but is usually reflective of the weather here, they get warm nosed a little more than me normally.
  6. John1122
    That is so so close to a monster snowstorm for Nashville. I could even see heavy rates keeping it all snow with temps around 33 at 850.
  7. John1122
    Our whole story revolves around a little piece of northern stream energy that is going to be trying to catch up with the southern stream energy. Very good write up from the WPC regarding it. We need it to pull the storm closer to the coast as detailed below.
  8. John1122
    Hopefully the Euro holds serve. Having the UKIE and it both showing me with 12+ inches is tantalizing to say the least. Still so long before we get the full picture though. It seems like we've been looking at this thing for 10 days now.
  9. John1122
    WPC has above average confidence through Saturday going with a blend of 12z GFS/00z Euro/00z UKIE as of a few hours ago. Ignoring the Canadian. Says the GFS is showing it's bias of possibly being too fast/flat with the system.
  10. John1122
    No clue, I don't recall ever seeing anything like that actually happen before, but it's obviously technically possible. I'm personally going to discount it. I assume the model sees some brief weakness in the high over the top and thinks the system will slam the brakes on and shoot north but then be forced to resume eastward.
  11. John1122
    Looking closer at the FVS, it's pretty funny, the LP moves at two almost perfect 90 degree angles. The HP is further south initially so the low is actually further south of Panama City at 108 than it was last night. But instead of moving more smoothly NE like basically any system would, it suddenly moves due North for 6 hours then moves due east for the next 6. I guess that could technically happen, but it would be utterly bizarre for it to do so. I can't take that particular run of the FVS all that seriously due to that.
  12. John1122
    I'm not even going to pretend to understand the FVS 3 at this point. It seems to show only rain here but piles up major snow. It's features were actually perhaps the best positioned for our region that I've seen so far. It's parent high was about 200 miles South of it's position last night when it dumped 2 feet on my area.
  13. John1122
    Have had some more pretty nice snow showers this morning. Expect there may be 1/2 inch or so overnight tonight once temps get into the 20s and another impulse rotates through.
  14. John1122
    The Euro seems to mostly be in line with it's ensembles, the GFS seems to want no part of it's ensembles. We will see who folds and which direction they fold in over the next 48 hours. Should get something closer to definitive by then. Crazy how hard is is to forecast for the entire Tennessee valley. Look how consistent the system is for the Carolina area. Even last year the models nailed big snows in crazy places in the deep South from pretty far out. For our area it's just never easy or simple. I don't remember the last time a forecast came off without a hitch so to speak.
  15. John1122
    Euro snow depth map is similar in areas north of 40 to the snow depth map from the FV3. 12+ inches on the Northern Plateau with some 16+ areas where elevations approach or exceed 3000 feet near me and into SEKY, 2-4 right along the TN/KY line from Clarksville to the Eastern Highland Rim. 8-12+ inches in NE TN/SWVA. 16-25+ in Western NC. Just insane, if it were to come to pass there'd be a ton of power outages and it'd be a truly old school storm. My largest has been 13 inches in the 2000s. February of 1998 I had 17+, February of 1996 I had 15, March 1993 I had 25. I think 13 is the biggest December event I recall seeing listed here. But I would have to go back and look again. Warm nose up the Eastern Valley to probably Jefferson City or a little further, and for all of Middle and Western Tennessee below the border areas with Kentucky. This is probably the biggest Euro run yet for the areas in SEKY, Plateau, NETN, SWVA that get the snow. Also, that is as I noted, the snow depth map, not the snowfall map. I'd imagine it might look like the FV3 map.
  16. John1122
    The FVS also gives my area around .30-.40 freezing rain.
  17. John1122
    The FVS is hanging in for 40 and north basically. I won't bother with the crazy tropical map that puts down 2 feet of snow right on top of me. But the snow depth looks like a reasonable compromise.
  18. John1122
    Just had what I can only describe as a burst of snow. It just poured down for about 10 minutes.
  19. John1122
    I actually like that run of the GFS pretty well. The high is stronger in the Midwest. The air is colder than it was showing a few days ago. The track is really great as well. With all those factors it just feels like the GFS is overestimating the 850s. The other day Holston posted some reanalysis animations. This exact set up was on one of the major December snowstorms. HP over SE Minnesota, low along the panhandle. I just don't see the 850s hitting the Ohio River in this set up. That is a 1008 lp, not a 997 cranking in the Gulf.
  20. John1122
    It's never easy here. For whatever reason this area is one of the very tougest to put together a winter storm out of the Gulf of Mexico. They used to be our primary source of snow but these days WAA eats them up badly. Thats why snow averages have been cut in half over the last 30 years, especially south of 40. Knoxville had a 14 inch snow average in the 1951-1980 period. It's down to 6 or so from 1981-2010. The perfect storm features over the top blocking with a good cold source and a potent low. If you have marginal cold or the top you have to hope the low is weaker. The current event we are tracking would have a better shot for success if this were after December 20th or so. The deeper into winter the colder our source.
  21. John1122
    The models are actually amazingly steady on the track of this system. The run to run differences we see are relatively minor wobbles. It's just that these 75-100 mile wobbles have major effects on the sensible weather on the ground for our region because as we often are, we are on the borderline for rain vs snow. Sometimes it's like they designed and implimented 40 just south of classic snow vs rain areas.
  22. John1122
    Today vs 12z yesterday when Georgia got turned into an ice berg.
  23. John1122
    It's slower vs yesterday's runs. It's 850 cold pool is further north than 12z yesterday when it was down in Georgia. I'd think between 144 and 168 East Tennessee/Western NC get a pretty good dump of snow. But with the 24 hour frames. I'm not sure.
  24. John1122
    Tropical has issues with the FV3. Pivotal has a little better one from as closely as I can tell. The safest bet with most snowfall maps is to cut 33-40 percent of whatever they spit out and be extra happy if they actually verify. The GFS is doing something I've seen it do before, and that's follow the Euro run from 12-24 hours before. I believe yesterday's 12z Euro had everything well south of 40. Today the GFS moves there. As Carvers just said, these situations where we potentially get an I-40 special to span the whole state, 50-75 mile shifts of track mean the difference between 12 inches or nothing sometimes. This is a snow depth map from Pivotal and it may be more reflective of what the FV3 is putting out. Totals around 60 percent of what the Tropical map shows.
  25. John1122
    The 3k NAM also shows some potential if you happen to get under a snow streak with some 1 inch+ bands showing up in Middle Tennessee.
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