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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Yeah - I should have been more clear on my model solution statement - I was more referring to the fact that almost all models pushed some sort of activity through the whole area - intensity ignored and also which complex would be "ours" - just the general idea of some semblance of a big complex (even if elevated, pushing through). I woke up around 4am and was stuck at how anemic (other than N MD) everything looked. Was expecting a solid line of rain but sub-severe. I'm not sure I got any meaningful precip here in eastern MoCo. I think we all have to remember that the models have trouble with big lumbering winter storms that span hundreds of miles...why would they perform admirably in situations where small-scale storms and differences in tens of miles mean huge differences in the end result? We are a long way off from having reliably good predictions of "events" like this. I will say that I think SPC did a pretty good job - glad they didn't expand the enhanced into our area (and we were even mostly outside the slight yesterday as well). It was a good forecast. I know we all make fun of how "in the moment updating" they were in 2012...but THIS is exactly why you don't broad brush a moderate risk along the entire "potential" track of an MCS. It just isn't high enough confidence. It seemed like last night they were taking the same approach (even with the late introduction of the moderate risk) and this time their conservative forecast panned out really well. Imagine if they had painted us all in ENH or MOD only to have this end result this morning.
  2. Kmlwx
    11z HRRR has no additional precip for the remainder of the day. The fat lady has sung.
  3. Kmlwx
    Just goes to show you that no matter how consistent the models are on something coming through - these MCS-type events are never, ever, ever a guarantee. Add to that the stable overnight hours...it came through at really the worst time for instability...this is what you get. And honestly the NAM/NAM nest are pretty much nada for the remainder of the day as well. CIPS looks as quiet as it has looked in a while through the entire run timeframe. But yes - maybe some iso severe later this week.
  4. Kmlwx
    Very much meh-worthy IMBY. Maybe the MCV can churn something up.
  5. Kmlwx
    Looks like almost all of the warnings on the complex are "considerable" wording now. Impressive. At least from short term radar trends, the more south solutions seem to be valid. But these things can change on a dime.
  6. Kmlwx
    00z HRRR (running now) strongly favors Virginia for the morning MCS.
  7. Kmlwx
    MCSes are really hard to predict. But yes, the models seem to have the cluster I mentioned for us tomorrow AM. Would think that complex into WV will head too far south for most of us.
  8. Kmlwx
    It's a real wait and see kind of thing. Really nice storms up there in IN/OH/MI
  9. Kmlwx
    Areas south are generally more favored to be warmer/more humid simply by being farther south. Humidity and heat are pretty crucial ingredients for severe weather and storms in general. Though every event is different - the climo for storms is higher south.
  10. Kmlwx
    Cappucci thinks it misses Maryland to the south and west it seems.
  11. Kmlwx
    Really no sig changes.
  12. Kmlwx
    Biggest thing I'm watching for now is timing. It's entirely possible we start to see the arrival time moved up as the storms unfold
  13. Kmlwx
    Yep. Not even close to having the same fuel available.
  14. Kmlwx
    WD index summer edition lol
  15. Kmlwx
    Probably safe to ignore weather until tonight. I personally still think something rather significant is possible - higher odds the farther north and west you go...but these things can surprise.
  16. Kmlwx
    SPC (in the day 4-8 outlook) mentions Thursday as a potential severe day as well - but low confidence at this range. Yoda may be tired of copy/paste soon.
  17. Kmlwx
    Also - looking at CIPS - it's pretty darn quiet and unenthused with anything in the short term (may not mean a ton). Around 100hrs and shortly after, there's a decent signal from the GL region/midwest and into our region. Bears watching since we are potentially entering a period with increased chances for a "ring of fire" pattern.
  18. Kmlwx
    It's been a busy weekend...but I'm just now having a chance to come up for air and take a look at everything. We tend to get lines of storms ahead of schedule...not sure if this would apply to the D-word or large MCSs as well...but I'd assume so. Still, the current timing is well into the overnight period tomorrow night and even closer to 12z Tue AM on some of the models. That's not ideal as @high risk already said for true surface based activity. The 2012 derecho came through late into the evening - but it was also a ridiculously hot airmass area-wide and it was before midnight. 12z is like the worst time entirely for anything severe t'storm related (it's happened, yes...but it's rare). MCS activity (and particularly derechos) are insanely tough to model/predict...and when we are talking about sensible weather, a different of a hundred miles or two is going to mean a ton for your specific location. Few things that I'll be watching for - 1) how much instability is left if the line/complex comes through at that awful time in the diurnal cycle. 2) If the timing really is 12z Tue AM - I think even 6 hours earlier would increase the risk substantially - make it 8-12 hours earlier and even better for severe odds (I think 12 hours might be a tall task, though). 3) We'll need to see where the instability gradient sets up - it's a razor sharp margin on some of the models and if you're too far NE of that...game over. I think EVERYONE is in the game in this subforum for right now. That will obviously change as we get closer to (and into) the event. Doesn't mean anything - but that day 2 Outlook has "the look" of 2012...obviously not basing that on any other analog factor other than map drawings (which don't mean much). I think today will be a feast or famine - if a supercell or two form, somebody will get pummeled - but I'm punting. If something pops this evening, I'll track it of course. Buckle up...let's see what tomorrow holds as we get closer to the potential.
  19. Kmlwx
    All our eggs in tomorrow's basket I guess
  20. Kmlwx
    This from the 6z NAM looks fun. MCS-esque
  21. Kmlwx
    Had to lol at this from the end of the NAM 12km run for Tue PM.
  22. Kmlwx
    CIPS is pretty quiet. Does have some signature around hr168.
  23. Kmlwx
    The ensembles are still really liking a persistent NW flow pattern from 240 through the end of the runs.
  24. Kmlwx
    CIPS has a severe signal in our region and into the NE around the 240hr mark.
  25. Kmlwx
    You can't. But the pattern fits. You also can't predict a KU 10 days out, but you can assess that the pattern could be favorable!
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