StormyClearweather

I hate this model and this obsession hobby.

Lol a proper NAMing. It hits some of us with the first slot, and then hits us again Tuesday. "Hit" is a very relative term, of course.

Being from Greenville and having moved up here a bit over two years ago, I can vouch for this. And to your point, where I lived in Greenville got 8 inches in a January 2022 storm. It was a fluke, proving they can still happen, but that was the sort of thing that happened roughly every 5-6 years, not that long ago.

That's the 0Z Here's 12Z.

Ukie

That reminded me of the "AI" version of the Euro, which you can find here: https://charts.ecmwf.int I have no idea how accurate it is and all that, but it ran at 0Z and certainly looks better than the base Euro to my untrained eye. You can read more about it here: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/ Edit: The screenshot cut off, but that's at 18Z on Tuesday.

Understandably, the focus is on Tuesday, but can anyone speak to how things are looking as we head into late month/Feb.? I don't remember seeing much talk about the longer term after the 12Z runs, but maybe I missed it.

According to the GFS many of us go below freezing this Sunday morning and are still below freezing next Sunday at 18Z and counting. Seems unlikely, but would be wild.

I feel like Jan. 2022 (or at least the first system that month) was a little like this. Granted, I had just moved here, so maybe I just wasn't paying attention. Either way, it was fun.

This is my ignorance and weenieism talking, but is there genuine reason to believe it could continue?

God I hate the NAM.

Looking far better at good ole 69, FWIW

Column cools quicky though once precip starts, so ignore me.

Yes, but... which is significantly warmer than 18Z NAM.

NW of 95, but literally at 299 feet. Fortunately, I live about halfway down the hill, so it's a short walk to 300.

Probabilities appear down significantly. QPF?

Thanks, you're right. I wasn't thinking about the speed-up.

Mercy.

This is obviously a year old, but FWIW Looks to be true. I don't see much when I google GEFS v13 other than some talk about what's coming/etc.

Euro is even faster than the GFS. Has precip breaking out by 18Z Saturday.

Definitely faster evolution this time. Roughly comparable with the ICON timing-wise.

HRRR says why wait until next weekend

Pretty wild for ~36 hours out. From the LWX discussion this afternoon. THE TWO 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS VARY GREATLY STARTING AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW PRESSURE E OFF OF CAPE HATTERAS ON WEDNESDAY, WHEREAS THE 12Z ECMWF BRINGS IT TO ORF, THEN OVER DELMARVA AND UP THE NJ SHORE. WHILE BOTH MODELS GIVE A STEADY RAIN IN THE MORNING, IT IS WHAT HAPPENS AFTER 18Z THAT WILL DETERMINE THE LEVEL OF IMPACT OF ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINS. WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING OFF CAPE HATTERAS, THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAINS WOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AT TIMES. HOWEVER, THE 12Z ECMWF GIVES MUCH HEAVIER RAINFALL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH TOTAL QPF AROUND 2-2.5 INCHES BY 06Z THURSDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z HREF 24-HR QPF ENSEMBLE MAX IS IN THIS BALLPARK.