StormyClearweather

I don't mind this. Even if it winds up being snow TV.

Moving up here from SC in 2021, between Tuesday's storm and today's storm, this is the most snow I've seen on the ground... ever. Don't take it for granted! Most of the SE Forum would kill for this.

Ya love to see it! Posted by NWS LWX about 10 minutes ago.

Have you measured lately? You're close enough to me that I find it easier to use yours than walk outside and do it myself.

CMC is a similar 2-4.

But what about conservatives? GFS Snow Map (see? this wasn't a wasted post)

It's aight.

Models don't appear to be picking up the "precip" streaming overhead, while it looks like HRRR takes a couple of hours after precip starts for it to start hitting the ground. Maybe, just maybe, the stuff falling now helps moisten the column, reducing virga when the real stuff gets here?

Latest from LWX: PRECIP ALOFT HAS BEEN NOTED ON REGIONAL 88DS AND GPM MICROWAVE IMAGER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND, BUT NO SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND AS LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20C PER 19/00Z IAD SOUNDING. NEW SET OF 18Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO SPEAK OF ABOUT FRIDAY'S FORECAST. STRONG SHORTWAVE-TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY FRI SUPPORTING STRONG LIFT TO GENERATE SNOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL LACK DEEP MOISTURE TO MAKE THIS A MAJOR STORM IN ADDITION TO BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWAT VALUES GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.4 INCHES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN. FOR BIGGER STORMS, TYPICALLY 0.5 INCH PWAT VALUES AND HIGHER ARE NEEDED UNLESS IS A SUPER COLD AIR MASS. ALL OF THESE FACTORS, IN ADDITION, LACK OF A CLOSED 850-700 MB CIRCULATION, SUGGEST WARNING LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SEEM UNLIKELY. OVERALL, THE FORECAST AND SNOW AMOUNTS SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LIKE FREDERICKSBURG VA MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE DUE TO LACK OF MID-LEVEL SATURATION WHICH MAY INHIBIT SNOWFALL RATES. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE 13Z-19Z FRI TIME FRAME.

Me likey.

3k has precip breaking out in the northern zones at 6Z and encroaching DC by 8Z.

Yeah, but the RAP...

I mean, I know it's LR HRRR, and I know HRRR sucked last time, and I know I probably shouldn't, but... Obviously, precip is still ongoing at this point, but it's a very nice trend for most of us.

I mean that's really the only thing that matters, so I think you're golden.

And Kuchera because it's prettier.

For those who want to compare Kuchera with non-Kuchera. It's the same for MBY, but pretty different for some.

UKIE is slightly improved as well.

FWIW

ICONic (relative to everything else, anyway).

Let's hope it's an 18Z fluke and not the start of a trend. As said above, it matches the GFS pretty well.

Light snow across most of the area at 12Z Friday, just getting started.

Euro looks a good bit drier through 60, but hopefully, it'll wind up just being noise.

LWX's prelim storm reports: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow

Is that a good or bad thing in this setup?

What's the insta again? Asking for a friend.