StormyClearweather

Woof.

For those interested.

The amazing, incomparable, infallible, always right, never changing 6Z Weather Next took our light snow away, too.

12Z WeatherNext looked similar to, though a bit east of, 6Z. No idea on QPF, but shows light snow for most of us from roughly 0Z Saturday > 0Z Sunday.

Last Monday's 12Z GFS for this past weekend's storm: But yeah, would prefer every model agreed we's a gettin' a blizzy.

What a crazy map. On the bright side, ice looks like less of an issue for many further south.

Good lord.

Yeah, word on the street is it sucks at thermals, but we can get a dopamine fix out of it at least. I hate the NAM. It's only right when it fucks us.

I was so young; so naive.

RGEM looks a touch colder through 60 - still snow for most.

Okay I'm about to go super weenie here, but that's where I am mentally. You probably already know this, but per this paper, the FV3 is being retired as well when RRFS comes online: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0323.1/BAMS-D-25-0323.1.pdf The RRFS switched to MPAS for v2, which is (I believe) what we're watching slowly roll in. Supposedly, even v1 outperformed most high-res models, with some reflectively issues that have hopefully been resolved per that paper. I'll stop now.

Taken literally and using Kuchera, FV3 has us at 4-6" at 7am. I'm not saying it's right, but that's what it says.

It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay.

3K is definitely slower on the changeover, still has most of us in snow (including DCA) at 60.

GEFS

I was literally coming here to type this comment. When I start trying to convince myself, I just bring this up.

Of course, it also does this. I don't buy it - its thermals seem rather suspect, but FWIW.

THIS. It's a fine line we're walking. You either clean up on the thump re: QPF with a better phase and change over faster, or vice versa.

I can't help myself - I'm watching column max temps and how they progress. Here's how they compare at HR 60 across the models that PW has with that metric. It's a good sign to me that the 3K NAM is a touch colder. People can hate on it all they want, but I've learned to not bet against 3K NAM temp profiles (good or bad) within 24-36 hours (though this is obviously outside that range).

Now THIS is a crazy temp map

Don't know if it'll load the preview, but GIF of the 24H max through the run: