StormyClearweather

. 69 today

KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM RISK LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. TODAY'S FORECAST HAS BECOME VERY COMPLICATED/UNCERTAIN DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH DENSE OVERCAST MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER EASTERN OH AND NORTHWEST PA. THIS WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON HEATING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH 90F BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VA SEEMS LIKE IT WILL SEE THE MOST HEATING AND THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WEATHER. MANY CAMS SHOW A MINIMA IN QPF BETWEEN THE ALLEGHENIES AND THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. ALSO, HRRR FORECASTS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE AS IT HAS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S, WHICH AIN'T HAPPENING BASED ON 24-HR MODEL AND CURRENT TRENDS. WHILE THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WX, THERE ARE STILL MANY UNKNOWNS AT THIS TIME.

. 27 so far with some light rain falling. Hopefully more to come.

3K NAM shows DCA going from 70 at 6pm to 37 at 7pm. Now that's a cold front.

Or maybe not!

12/5: 1.5" 12/14: 1" 1/1: 0.3" 1/17: 0.1" 1/25: 9.5" (5.5 snow/4 sleet est.) 2/6: 0.3" 2/22: 3.3" 3/2: 2.0" 3/12: 1.0" **Total: 19"**

12/5: 1.5" 12/14: 1" 1/1: 0.3" 1/17: 0.1" 1/25: 9.5" (5.5 snow/4 sleet est.) 2/6: 0.3" 2/22: 3.3" 3/2: 2.0" Total: 18.0" Surprising to me that I beat last year's 16.9" IMBY. Stuck around forever this year, but felt like less.

Never thought I'd say it, but I'm ready.

12/5: 1.5" 12/14: 1" 1/1: 0.3" 1/17: 0.1" 1/25: 9.5" (5.5 snow/4 sleet est.) 2/6: 0.3" 2/22: 3.3" Total = 16"

Drier and thus warmer for many. And maybe east too.

A WWII movie with a Met as the main character? I'm in!

I remember a storm not so long ago that the GFS showed as a blizzard in NC, and it was on an island. I think we know how that turned out. Any time a model is alone in showing an extreme solution, it's almost certainly not going to be right. Unless that solution is an extreme drought - then it's always right. I realize I'm stating the obvious, but I'm doing it as much for myself as anyone else, and I sure hope I'm wrong.

Sigh

Which is funny considering the bouncing around pretty much every model has been doing with this system, which we've been tracking for approximately six years. Except maybe the UKMET.

And the CMC is a no-go. She dead y'all. I blame the tarriffs for this.

A reminder that it could be worse: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2026/02/11/restless-cranky-balmy-western-winter-leaves-many-loss/

Only 384 hours away!

AI GFS is suppressed. Double sucks because I was hoping for rain if we didn't get snow. SryNtSry.

Woof.

For those interested.

The amazing, incomparable, infallible, always right, never changing 6Z Weather Next took our light snow away, too.

12Z WeatherNext looked similar to, though a bit east of, 6Z. No idea on QPF, but shows light snow for most of us from roughly 0Z Saturday > 0Z Sunday.

Last Monday's 12Z GFS for this past weekend's storm: But yeah, would prefer every model agreed we's a gettin' a blizzy.

What a crazy map. On the bright side, ice looks like less of an issue for many further south.