StormyClearweather

5.8" here, and thrilled for the jackpotters, especially since they're not the typical jackpotters.

It's already been stated by the smart people here, but LWX mentions the dry air in the latest disco. Snippet below. THE ONSET OF SNOW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT SLOWED BY THE AMPLE DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 250 MB. THIS IS SHOWN QUITE WELL IN THE 00Z IAD SOUNDING, GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 750-MB, WHICH IS CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW/MID RH OF 20-25 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE ELEVATED CORE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AND MOISTEN THE LAYER BELOW THROUGH EVAPORATION AND WET-BULBING PROCESSES. EVENTUALLY THE ENTIRE AREA WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW ONCE RESIDUAL DRY AIR IS ERODED.

Reminder that it's based on older runs and such, but latest NWS Blend is nice:

I wish I had your self-control. #masochist

I don't know if this is sarcastic or not, so I'm going to answer and say that, at this range, probably not at all. But it's very pretty to look at.

Maybe the RAP was on to something.

Okay, snow map pron time.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503-504-VAZ053-054-501-505-506-526-527-050500- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0000Z-250107T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 9 inches, with amounts of 10 to 12 inches possible in isolated spots if heavy banding sets up in this area. Ice accumulations of a trace possible near Interstate 66. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. Highest snowfall rates occur overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Snow may mix with sleet and perhaps some freezing rain Monday morning into the afternoon, especially right along the Interstate 66 corridor. A lull in precipitation will occur sometime during the afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

NWS Blend

I think it's more that it tightened up the QPF a bit than really moved. Although I guess it's really just noise (just not the kind we like). And fortunately, it's the ickycon, so.

Inferring from your comment that you don't love the FV3? I don't follow it much, so genuine question.

And with a bit more to come, it appears.

It doesn't look that way to me. Just a break between the initial wave and the back-end stuff. Sorry for small size - file size limitations.

Agree 100%, but if anything, it nudged a little bit south vs. 6Z (talking about the 12k).

3K NAM at the end of its run. Should be a bit more to come with nice ratios.

Was just about to post that. Would be great.

12z 3k is also colder than 6z at the same time.

3k continues to be a tad colder re: thermals. I don't know which is better at what, but that feels like a good thing?

But back to snow by 51, or close to it.

Yeah you’re right - I was focusing on the edges. Decent run.

It looks like less QPF to me, vs 12z. Am I missing something?

CMC is a bit south - 5-10 for most.