StormyClearweather

RGEM looks a touch colder through 60 - still snow for most.

Okay I'm about to go super weenie here, but that's where I am mentally. You probably already know this, but per this paper, the FV3 is being retired as well when RRFS comes online: https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-25-0323.1/BAMS-D-25-0323.1.pdf The RRFS switched to MPAS for v2, which is (I believe) what we're watching slowly roll in. Supposedly, even v1 outperformed most high-res models, with some reflectively issues that have hopefully been resolved per that paper. I'll stop now.

Taken literally and using Kuchera, FV3 has us at 4-6" at 7am. I'm not saying it's right, but that's what it says.

It literally has precip starting at 10pm in DC, but okay.

3K is definitely slower on the changeover, still has most of us in snow (including DCA) at 60.

GEFS

I was literally coming here to type this comment. When I start trying to convince myself, I just bring this up.

Of course, it also does this. I don't buy it - its thermals seem rather suspect, but FWIW.

THIS. It's a fine line we're walking. You either clean up on the thump re: QPF with a better phase and change over faster, or vice versa.

I can't help myself - I'm watching column max temps and how they progress. Here's how they compare at HR 60 across the models that PW has with that metric. It's a good sign to me that the 3K NAM is a touch colder. People can hate on it all they want, but I've learned to not bet against 3K NAM temp profiles (good or bad) within 24-36 hours (though this is obviously outside that range).

Now THIS is a crazy temp map

Don't know if it'll load the preview, but GIF of the 24H max through the run:

You're not wrong literally - that's the 24H max temp representation though, so it's looking back at the previous day (I assume). We technically go below at 0Z Saturday though, to your point.

To your point, just did a 24H max temp check, and ECMWF has us go below freezing at 0Z Sunday and not get above through the end of its run. In fact, many of us don't even get out of the 20s through that period.

My ignorance here, but when I look at the AIFS on TT, the 540 line jumps north of most of us. Does that not matter? Soundings on Piv also seem to show sleet/snow mix for many of us, FWIW. Not to be a Debbie Downer - just hoping I'm wrong and missing something.

QPF continues to improve as well. All of us are in the 1.0-1.2" range sound of the MD.

In the "old days," the NAM was the best at CAD setups, especially the 3K when it gets into range, and models (especially globals) scoured it out too quickly. As Randy said, might be weenie coping, but I hope that's a trend we see continue as we get closer.

✱FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY✱ The extrapolation comment made me think I'd try something funny, so I told Gemimi to create the next frame of the NAM.

Kuchera ratios are 17-18:1 for most of us during peak. I mean I'm not saying I buy it, but I'm not saying I don't either.

I mean it's noise, but it's a little better verbatim, though I wonder if this is more just it being a little faster than anything.

ICON looks a touch faster to me, so far.