StormyClearweather

It seems to me a slight trend toward holding back that energy on most of the guidance (GFS obviously being the worst and most extreme offender), a trend we obviously need to stop. What's the cause of that? Is it the stronger high to the north or something else?

Woof

Ukie will just fine. Mod to heavy snow by 9Z Sunday.

I would argue it trended slower and broader with the precip, due to enhanced strength and the coastal low scenario.

Oh hello

I was just wondering about this last night - thanks for going back and finding it. I seriously remember being at dinner on Valentines Day and checking the 18Zs (yes, really), and even though it looked fine, you could feel what was about to happen as ECMWF shifted south. So if we make it through today... maybe I can actually start feeling some confidence in this thing? P.S. My friend the MOGREPS, so this isn't just a banter post:

Wow, was the wind blowing the snow off roofs? That's wild (and presumably helpful when there's that much of it).

I have no idea if the MOGREPS (UKMET Ens) is any good, but since I like what it "snows," I'm posting it. 18z vs 12z

Not sure if anyone posted the EPS, but it's a hold or slightly improved. 12Z:

With more to come.

Chilly

FWIW, AI GFS has a 1"plus of precip over 48 hours with temps in the 20s. Presuambly, that'd be snow (?). Do think it tends to overdo QPF, but still...

This upcoming pattern is screaming suppression to me, which is by far the most annoying way to fail. Hope I'm wrong and just being my negative nelly self.

AFDs getting a little too real.

3k especially

Ha!

Check out that mean 2m 24-hr min, and at 360 hours to boot.

1.32" on the day; 1.33" total between yesterday and today. I'm counting every drop, dammit.

LWX Disco (the part we care about): THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY SPILL TO THE EAST. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES THEREAFTER AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US. IF THIS TROUGH WERE TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE, LOW PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AS TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THE FRONT, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR COULD BE WINTRY IN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE GFS HAS SHOWN THIS SCENARIO FOR A FEW RUNS, BUT AS OF NOW IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE OR EVEN MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. JUST A PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO FOR NOW.

I mean I guess I’ll settle for 2 10” storms instead of one 12”, if I must. Separately, isn’t the JMA a joke? Serious Q.

I'm sticking with the RRFSOPQXYZ

Okay it's one op run at the very end of its range, with no real agreement with its ensembles... but since it shows this, it'll probably come true.

1.43" for the day - 11.85" for the month. Am sure those to my east in Fx county and around Potomac, MD have far crazier day/month totals.

Wild how the same areas keep getting hit (and not hit) over and over again. I was in the "not hit" camp in June, and know I will be again. But for today, 2.91" between late last night's/this afternoon's storms, and 9.85" for the month. Feeling pretty good about hitting 10" for the month, which is pretty surprising based on how summers have gone since moving here in 2021.