StormyClearweather

I know it means nothing, but it makes me feel good, so I'm going to say it - FV3 nailed today's "event" for NoVa, at least. Even showed the two rounds we wound up getting.

18Z Ukie appears to be staying the course with its southerly track at 18Z (only goes to 66 for me).

Feels like they're slowly but surely coalescing. 18Z model runs thus far. One thing I'm noticing is how juicy and north-ish the GFS is to our west.

Stealing @yoda's words, since we seem to post these at the same time, "interesting distribution."

PV soundings have sleet by 15Z on Monday:

Just slight changes

Genuine question: Would you disregard the ECMWF's/Ukie's far southern track, then? It seems other models have been shifting that way today, but maybe it's going to wind up as a meet-in-the-middle type deal?

Yeah, it's tight, but looks good:

EPS with a slight bump in QPF for most. Doesn’t look like it moved north or south much, if at all.

Yep, and I pasted the wrong map. Thanks, and fixed.

And ticked north a tad. Noise, but still. **edit to end of run

It can stop now. Also, too bad it's the iCON.

Low might be a tickle south on the ICON, for those who celebrate. Regardless, good snows falling for most by 12Z Monday.

I feel like CMC is always too cold, especially beyond 48 hours, but I sure hope I’m wrong.

I take back what I said about the ICON 6 hours ago. She looks good. Love that follow-up thump.

Reading that NWS PHL discussion in their forum was depressing. I wish I hated snow.

Absolutely 100% agree, but it's not showing up in the grid forecasts. Everything I'm seeing is all snow. It's almost like they're talking directly to us nerds or something, i.e. "Stop focusing on the snow maps."

From LWX Disco THE BIGGEST AREA OF FOCUS OF THE THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. THERE REMAINS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL DISCREPANCY REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THEREFORE LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO A SNOWFALL AMOUNT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PROLONGED WARM NOSE LEADING TO PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWER SNOW TOTALS THAN SOME MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LIGHT SHIFT NORTH FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD BIT OF DISCREPANCY. PRECIPITATION ONSET WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

Or better yet, expand those pretty pinks. PV version:

Check out those DPs

To me, NAM looks very close to ECMWF at 84, but that's just the surface, which is all I know how to look at.

Except with far lighter QPF. But agree in general.