StormyClearweather

No real changes.

To your point, here's Nashville's disco tonight, FWIW: It`s snowing!!! All of our observation sites are reporting snow this hour with the heaviest falling along and south of I-40. We`ve already received a report of 0.5" of snow in Bellevue. Looking at the latest run of the HRRR tonight, boy did it come in hot. It paints a narrow band of higher totals ranging from 6-8 inches from Wayne County all the way through to our furthest NE counties on the Plateau, including Nashville. This solution would mean this event overachieves a little further north than originally forecasted and it pumps out more snow in any heavier bands that move through. This will be something to watch as the night progresses. There were talks of bumping up QPF along our northern border to match up with this latest run of the HRRR, but for now, we`re going to hold off on that to see what the next round of models show since this is only 1 run. Our sounding tonight shows a textbook snow event; big, healthy layer of moisture right in the snow growth region with all layers below 0 degrees Celsius. As for temperatures, they have tanked. Most everyone is sitting right around 20 degrees and dropping. We will be back with a full forecast update in the next several hours. In the meantime, stay safe, stay warm, and enjoy the snow!

Seems like noise to me more than anything. Maybe responding to the HRRR?

ICON is slightly improved again, too. If I keep posting these, maybe it'll help me forget about the 0Z HRRR.

Screw the NAM, I've got a new daddy now. HRW FTW!

The short-term discussion was updated (pulled out the important piece) - guessing this means they'll be hoisted with the early morning update. THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM MID MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SECOND PERIOD OF SNOW. WHILE INCONSISTENT IN DEPICTION IN THE MODELS, A MORE PERSISTENT HEAVIER BAND CLOUD RESULT IN A STRIPE OF UP TO 6 INCHES, ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WARM AIR ALOFT DOES BEGIN TO INTRUDE LATER MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-95. THIS MAY RESULT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION, OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE IF A DRY SLOT LESSENS PRECIPITATION RATES.

But then gains it back at 39 with a final (?) round of light to moderate snow.

Man that's beautiful.

18Z runs of all the models because I have nothing better to do.

Euro with a healthier "finger" of very light precip late tonight, which is new from 12Z.

You love to see it.

Happy 12Z ICON run, for those who celebrate:

While y'all are getting NAMed, I'm geting... uh... RAPPED. (Had to be careful there.) Snow ongoing at this point.

ok thx Anyway, ICON is fine:

Not bad for a day's work. Better than the alternative anyway.

Maybe because it's virga prior to? PV shows 0 QPF through 18Z.

I hate this model and this obsession hobby.

Lol a proper NAMing. It hits some of us with the first slot, and then hits us again Tuesday. "Hit" is a very relative term, of course.

Being from Greenville and having moved up here a bit over two years ago, I can vouch for this. And to your point, where I lived in Greenville got 8 inches in a January 2022 storm. It was a fluke, proving they can still happen, but that was the sort of thing that happened roughly every 5-6 years, not that long ago.

That's the 0Z Here's 12Z.

Ukie

That reminded me of the "AI" version of the Euro, which you can find here: https://charts.ecmwf.int I have no idea how accurate it is and all that, but it ran at 0Z and certainly looks better than the base Euro to my untrained eye. You can read more about it here: https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/graphcast-ai-model-for-faster-and-more-accurate-global-weather-forecasting/ Edit: The screenshot cut off, but that's at 18Z on Tuesday.

Understandably, the focus is on Tuesday, but can anyone speak to how things are looking as we head into late month/Feb.? I don't remember seeing much talk about the longer term after the 12Z runs, but maybe I missed it.

According to the GFS many of us go below freezing this Sunday morning and are still below freezing next Sunday at 18Z and counting. Seems unlikely, but would be wild.