StormyClearweather

I don't know much of anything here, but when I click on the handy-dandy sounding from Pivotal, it shows a best guess of snow at 192. Maybe that doesn't matter, or maybe that just goes to show how borderline it is, which in itself is concerning? And yes, I realize 37/38 isn't ideal regardless of how you spin it. Edit: Oh, and at least Short Pump goes over to snow, based on the p-type map.

I hear you, but I'm getting some sleet mixing here. Other obs are backing it up. Maybe it's the rates?

Sleet mixing in, and down to 38.4.

Pretty awesome updates to Radarscope launched today. I know it hit iPhone and Mac, and assume it launched on other platforms as well.

Gross

Interesting stuff: https://apple.news/AJjVIzjlMTee4jcq35fbgjA I was wondering when we’d see an "AI" forecast model. Looks like they’re already here.

Sick burn bro.

This is helpful. For mostly ignorant people like me, the lack of digital blue=cave to GFS, even if that's not what's really happening. But if the GFS shows digital blue at 12Z, then I'll immediately become terrified snow won't happen because GFS... even though I'm presently terrified because the GFS is not showing digital blue. Scary part? I'm not even really kidding.

Nailed it.

Reasonable discussion: FOR FRIDAY THOUGH, A MORE SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER- LEVEL JET PATTERN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SPLIT IN TERMS OF HOW THIS DEVELOPS AND THE SPECIFIC IMPACTS TO OUR REGION. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET LOOKS TO BE PLENTY STRONG TO PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARDS THE EAST, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW. THIS LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST OR IN THE SOUTHEAST (DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS). FROM THERE, THAT IS WHERE THE BIG QUESTIONS FOR US COME. THERE ARE 3 SCENARIOS THAT COULD PLAY OUT, AND THEY ALL ARE DEPENDENT ON WHEN/IF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS ARE ABLE TO PHASE. THE FIRST SCENARIO WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH AND WELL OFFSHORE IF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPACES THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THE SECOND SCENARIO PHASES THE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY TOO EARLY, TAKING THE PRIMARY LOW TO OUR WEST, GIVING US THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, BUT LIKELY NO WINTRY WEATHER. COULD EVEN SEE A SCENARIO WHERE THIS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. NOW, FOR SCENARIO THREE WE WOULD NEED THE UPPER LOW TO JUST TRACK BETWEEN THE FIRST TWO SCENARIOS. THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GETS POSITIONED JUST RIGHT OR IF THE TWO SYSTEMS WERE TO MANAGE TO PHASE IN THE RIGHT SPOT, WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. THIS THIRD SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME RANGE THOUGH...THAT IS GOING TO BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY RIGHT. MONITORING TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE KEY TO THIS FORECAST, AND RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER... SO, AS THIS GETS CLOSER ON OUR RADAR, HOPEFULLY SOME GOOD SAMPLING FROM UPPER AIR DATA WILL START TO HELP GUIDANCE CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION. FOR NOW, THIS IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

Yes.

Right where we... want... it?

Pretty good for this far out.

I'll take it!

But gives us a nice little backend burst, for whatever that's worth.

Dec. 29 showing another opportunity, too.

Damn that's pretty.

I know you said "sanding" instead of salting, but still an interesting piece on the issues with salting vs. brining. Road Salt Works. But It’s Also Bad for the Environment. - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

It's a decent step, fwiw:

I'm still pretty new to this area, but isn't CAD generally underdone at this range? Or maybe not since this is not the traditional CAD look?

18Z GFS remains wintry for the Thu PM/Fri period.

LWX alluded to that in their disco and seemed to be saying they think the CAPE is underdone. They don't say why, though. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE NEARLY 80 KNOTS OF WINDS AT 850 WHICH SUGGEST THAT WE WILL HAVE SHEAR WELL OVER 60 KNOTS AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CAPE AT THIS RANGE IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY LOW, I SUSPECT THE CAPE IS BEING UNDERDONE. IF WE ARE ABLE TO GET EVEN A FEW HUNDREDS OF CAPE COMBINING WITH 60+ KNOTS OF SHEAR, THE REGION COULD SEE A DECENT SVR THREAT.

Concur.