Chinook

December-type weather is happening now, with continuing lake effect snow in the area. There were many pleasant sunny days recently, even multiple days over 70 degrees. The last 30 days have been roughly 4 degrees F above normal over most of us on the sub-forum. I saw some decent sized snowflakes yesterday, with what could have been a snow rate at least 1/2" per hour. It wasn't really cold enough to get 1/2" accumulation for more than a half hour or an hour. I saw some large aggregate snowflakes of 1/2" width or better, so that's pretty rare. At the end of the day, the ground was really too warm for accumulation

tornado warning for downtown Durham.

interesting tweet that I saw retweeted by Jim Cantore

hand-picked observations from 0650z to 1050z

Here is a cross section across the Midwest. The cold front is on the left, the warm sector is in the middle, and the warm front is on the right. The black lines represent potential temperatures and you can see a little higher slope of the frontal surfaces with the cold front. Colors are frontogenesis. You can see the 0 degrees C isotherms (purple dotted lines) near the ground on both sides.

It's a pretty good weather day in Ohio, with completely sunny skies in the state. There are only easterly winds in Ohio at this time. In the late fall, easterly winds typically go with clouds, below normal temperatures, or rain.

second EF-3 tornado, which includes the preliminary storm survey information that I saw

tornado track of the earliest EF-3 on Friday

So, I guess 3 ft of snow fell since September 30th in WA, OR, ID, MT, WY, and CO, with more coming.

Toledo tied a record high of 76 degrees from, surprisingly, 1978. There has been quite a low percentage of normal rainfall since September 1st.

Max wind gusts measured by METARs (standard gust, not "pk wnd") a couple of hours ago (knots)

My area has been slow to get into the wind gusts. I just went jogging with a temperature of 70 degrees, fading sunshine, and wind gusts only up to about 15 to 20mph occasionally. There were groups of leaves blowing down the street. I wouldn't go jogging with 35-40 gusts, it's to much.

There was a 76mph wind report in NW Illinois

heavy damage reported at Idabel, Oklahoma from a couple of hours ago.

continuation of Boston TX tornado

large tornado debris signature at Bagwell, TX

damage to homes at Powderly, Texas

Tornado debris possible at Honobia/Pickens Oklahoma (this storm)

Very rural eastern Oklahoma (Fort Smith AR radar)

I think this was the tornado ( a while ago) northwest of Paris TX next to the Red River

first thunder/heavy rain of the day at Denton

Here is the HRRR model (00z) with the SCP with radar overlay for late afternoon tomorrow.

The fateful day of November 10th, 1975 compared to the upcoming weather situation on Saturday. The Edmund Fitzgerald Storm went from 1000mb near Wichita, Kansas to 984mb in Lake Superior in 24 hours. Our current weather situation will have a low of 1004-1006mb near Wichita, Kansas moving toward 987mb to near La Crosse Wisconsin within 24 hours, and then moving to Lake Superior as shown.

HRRR updraft helicity tracks up to 08z Saturday

The new Day-2 outlook has 10% hatched tornado probabilities and 30% wind probabilities including the region of Dallas to the Red River, Texarkana.