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Chinook

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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    While we are waiting for this to get on the Day-2 type time frame, I'll post the CIPS analogs, with Apr. 2, 12z data, for two different sectors. The way the data goes into the sector of the analog system must make a significant difference as to which analogs are picked. And get this: None of these analogs are what Ryan Hall mentioned as the best analogs, 4/26/94 and 2/29/2012. Midwest sector Southern Plains sector.
  2. Chinook
    I think this is a sneaky non-TDS as the velocities aren't very high. Any thoughts?
  3. Chinook
    Does this qualify as a derecho?
  4. Chinook
    Here is definitely a bounded weak echo region with the supercell shape and tornado warning. It seems like the velocity data has just been showing convergence rather than an easy-to-view mesocylone
  5. Chinook
    There are storms on every side of Dallas/Fort Worth. Several new small storms are popping as potentially a new group of supercells. Maybe one of those could become dominant.
  6. Chinook
    I think the storm near Stephenville has transitioned from being mainly a hail storm to maybe getting a bunch of rotation right now.
  7. Chinook
    some storm chaser probably has a good view of a wall cloud, or even a tornado (no direct evidence of a tornado yet.)
  8. Chinook
    Dallas has a 64 dew point, up from a dew point of 17 yesterday (2:53AM on April 1st). It's just amazing how that works.
  9. Chinook
    This one was a bit of a surprise as I thought maybe nothing would happen before the next large low pressure system. Things seem reasonably favorable for tornadoes. Some areas could be above 200m2/s2 of storm relative helicity (0-3km). Actually the NAM has up to 400 m2/s2 by the late day! The HRRR has some discrete storms and also a cluster of storms near/south of Fort Worth.
  10. Chinook
    NWS now says 1-3" near Fort Collins, maybe 6" for Estes Park, and up to 20-24" at Casper/Casper Mountain, Wyoming
  11. Chinook
    Severe weather polygons of all types from 3:00AM March 31 to April 2 (early)
  12. Chinook
    A large storm system on Monday night will most likely be a close call for heavy snow at Fort Collins and Estes Park.
  13. Chinook
    low-instability severe squall came though here around 11:00AM. At the time I didn't realize there would be this storm report of over 82mph over the Lake
  14. Chinook
    The 500mb anomaly, shown here with Jan 10th-Mar 30th, highlights the exact area with the most precipitation this year: mid-California
  15. Chinook
    Was that Upper Freehold, Pennsylvania? I'm not familiar with where this tornado warning took place.
  16. Chinook
    for those interested, this was a tornado reported by a spotter(s) at 6:01 and 6:06, Bridgeville. I am not sure if it was a tornado after 6:06PM
  17. Chinook
    It looks like this is it... the debris may be recent or perhaps wafting north into the storm
  18. Chinook
    Debris is directly over I-65, probably large tornado
  19. Chinook
    I wonder if we will have a significant tornado get going in western Illinois as per the 03z HRRR updraft helicity (hour 17-18)
  20. Chinook
    12z HRRR significant tornado parameter. The 12z 3km NAM has this entire field of instability farther west into Missouri and Iowa.
  21. Chinook
    With the GFS right now, it seems like this would be a northern threat somewhat removed from a southern threat. The 00Z ECMWF doesn't really have the same exact setup. The low pressure placement at 00z (Apr. 1, or, 8:00PM eastern on the evening of Mar. 31) is kind of different from the GFS. Along with this, the surface winds to perhaps 850mb winds much more in the realm of southwesterly rather than southerly. I think there is certainly some disagreement as to the synoptic features.
  22. Chinook
    I think this was Fort Collins' largest snowstorm of the year, (11" at Windsor, not shown) and apparently this was a surprise snow band
  23. Chinook
    This is a picture of me on March 14, 2021. Sometimes I trim my beard back a little bit.
  24. Chinook
    Mayjawintastawm probably liking this for Boston
  25. Chinook
    It looks like the 0-1km SRH will be increasing a lot from +2hr to +6hr on the SPC mesoanalysis (23z to 03z). I must say that the current STP is very high at a value of 4, and that same value will shift eastward.
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