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Everything posted by Chinook
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Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
It looks like the 0-1km SRH will be increasing a lot from +2hr to +6hr on the SPC mesoanalysis (23z to 03z). I must say that the current STP is very high at a value of 4, and that same value will shift eastward. -
Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
I didn't really expect this to go to MODERATE at mid-day, but certainly the deep-layer shear is there 6-hr mesoanalysis (RAP) forecast of STP with the radar from (I believe) the HRRR 6hr forecast -
17" at Neenah (near Appleton)
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Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
basically that would convert to 131.1mph one way and 131.1mph the other way. But hey. that's like Cat-4 tornado (113kt-137kt) -
Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
Yes, I got the same thing, it's 262.8mph, and effectively I haven't ever been able to see the data is this high of quality for this type of delta-v in my life. -
Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
tornado may have tracked for 31-32 miles already -
Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
Here's some hype for you. I think there's a high chance of EF1+ tornadoes and significant wind reports after sunset tomorrow. The nighttime severe is always more concerning, as people aren't ready for it. -
Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
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Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
You could check annual graphics from the SPC going back several years to see the tornadoes in California. example: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2022_annual_summary.html -
Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
This radar image from Montebello/Los Angeles tornado from a youtube video from channel "Convective Chronicles" (I recently found this excellent channel) -
Severe Weather 3-23-23 through 3-26-23
Chinook replied to cheese007's topic in Central/Western States
Here is the NAM forecast sounding for eastern Arkansas for 03z (tomorrow night), with effective STP of 4.3. Some odd things going on in the hodograph at 3km above ground, but I'm not sure too much to talk about, given the fact that the rest of the hodograph is excellent for tornadoes. The 3km NAM (not shown here) has up to 490 m2/s2 of 3km SRH at the Arkansas/Louisiana border. HRRR for 03z tomorrow night -
new loop http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_5_2014_SfcRadar_loop.html
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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
Chinook replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
I think this a new product by College of Dupage, Ensemble CAPE for the event that's now 96hr+ in the future, so it's not on the 3-day outlook -
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Yesterday (Saturday) Toledo was 22 degrees with a wind chill of 8 degrees before midnight. It's kind of rough considering there had been a lot of warmer temperatures in February and so many days without snow. Toledo had a high of 33 and a low 22 which was -16 for the high and -8 for the low.
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I believe once Weathafella said that he remembered this heavy NY snow storm, which happened almost on St. Patrick's Day 1956
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I will call this the winter of A.R.N. Another Rainy Night.
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California has gone from flood to drought to flood. Sacramento had apparently 5.12" of precipitation in January. (I added this. The NOWDATA info said the data was missing) and already 2.98" between March 1 and March 15, making for 19.46" of precipitation since November 1st. That's almost 3x higher than the 2020 calendar year.
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hence the Six States. Yes it's weird, I remember tracking it. the storm was quite washed out by the Michigan state line. but hey. Six States. Now, with the time change, we have to wait until 10:15 PM or 10:30 PM Eastern Daylight to get the 00z 3km-NAM and similar products. Boo.
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On this day in 2006, major tornado outbreak and the "Six-State Supercell," the supercell that brought the 66-mile tornado track that damaged Springfield IL (EF2). According to Wikipedia, 99 tornadoes confirmed from March 9 to March 13.
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It has been two years since the Big One.