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Chinook

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    Got a bit more graupel/rain. low-altitude CAPE exists. In a recent video by Convective Chronicles (youtube) low-altitude CAPE analysis or short-term forecast is quite effective at identifying areas of tornadoes. And of course, the same exact thing low-altitude CAPE is the reason lake effect snow gets going, that is, adequate updrafts in the winter. (pretty much like today)
  2. Chinook
    The NWS has issued a winter storm watch effective for many areas above 6000 ft and the Palmer Divide. Here is the text. I havent' really looked into it. I'm not sure 6000ft would be the cutoff, but they do include the Palmer Divide in the watch, just above 5500-6000ft I believe.
  3. Chinook
    I have graupel here. It quite uncommon. I saw graupel sometimes in the winter and summer in Colorado, but not often.
  4. Chinook
    The warm front pushed us up to 80-83, despite the fact that it sort of hates to do this with the lake. It really feels like a summer evening without the dew points (that is, a summer evening out West.)
  5. Chinook
    Tornado report in Tyler warning text from several minutes ago
  6. Chinook
    I believe this was the radar for the confirmed tornado near Princeton
  7. Chinook
    Here's a storm with a recent history of hail northwest of St. Louis
  8. Chinook
    two tornado warnings, west Illinois
  9. Chinook
    Etowah OK, confirmed tornado
  10. Chinook
    tornado confirmed near I-240 at about 7:00 central
  11. Chinook
    Honestly I still have no idea if there will be a lot of severe weather reports, but the pattern seems right for several storms, and the CAMs have varying solutions, with some storms that might be elevated, but still capable of large hail.
  12. Chinook
    NAM has the moisture farther west than the previous runs. I think the CAMs are more aggressive with firing storms near the front, or even on the cold side of the front. There's not a lot of agreement between the HRRR and the other ones.
  13. Chinook
    This band of snow has formed on the south side of the low. Because it has to be 50 degrees colder than Saturday, of course. and oh, by the way, the LaCrosse WI area got 9-22" (looks like 9"-13" in the city area)
  14. Chinook
    Here is a cross-section of our cold front today, and the section is across the I-80 corridor. You can see the quick dropoff of the 0 degree C isotherm from over 700mb (east, Ohio, Pennsylvania) to around 950mb (west, Iowa). The polar jet stream is directly over the main section of cooling temperatures at the low levels.
  15. Chinook
    1-10" of snow
  16. Chinook
    Remembering some nasty history!
  17. Chinook
    "nice weather shock" for part of Quebec?
  18. Chinook
    CoCoRAHS, invented in Fort Collins, after the 1997 flood.
  19. Chinook
    MO/AR/IL should have quite a few severe storms in the form of mostly squall lines. Models agree on SBCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and 0-6km shear values of 30-40 kt east of the developing storms in Missouri.
  20. Chinook
    The SPC web page has max/min/average climatology for basic upper air observed values, like 700mb dew point. The extremes at DTX of 700mb dew points are -45C and even lower for several days of the month of April.
  21. Chinook
    Desert, you say? how about 2% relative humidity aloft, measured in Michigan. It's like 2% milk. 700mb dew points should still be -20C to -30C in Michigan right now.
  22. Chinook
    Snowing at APA (Centennial Airport) and raining in the rest of Denver
  23. Chinook
    These are above the July average temps for some or all of the northern Michigan region. Alpena was 35 deg F above average yesterday, for the high of the day. The 850mb temperature was up to 15 deg C, and as you can see, the surface temperature was an even 30 deg C, I guess that's perfect mixing, if you assume 10 deg C/km and give 1500 meters from the 850mb level to the ground, both of which are not exact.
  24. Chinook
    An 2-d cross section across Colorado and Kansas. The development of the nighttime low-level jet goes from the 20's knots range (3-hour forecast, not shown), to 34 knots (first picture) to 46-48 knots (second picture) tonight. There are not thunderstorms expected, so this is showing that the low-level jet is a common feature, whether the moisture is there or not. It has this way of speeding up to the east of the Rockies that's probably unlike a lot of other places in the world. GFS 6-hr forecast GFS 9-hour forecast normal view
  25. Chinook
    It took me perhaps a very long time to figure out that the degree of 0-6 km shear (and layers above 0-6km) directly related to the amount of stretching out of the FFD and also the extent to which the anvil or cirrus material is carried away from the storm. And along with that, the storms with greater 0-3km storm relative helicity but less impressive 0-6km shear, such as 30 kt or 35 kt, turned out to be high precip. as the higher level winds did not remove material. I'm saying this because sometimes you just have to do something for years to learn it. Or you could have "Convective Chronicles" say it in a pretty easy way to understand.
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