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Everything posted by Chinook
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Models generally have Larimer/Weld counties with pretty low amounts of snow. I believe it is due to mainly downsloping from the north at the surface. Also I think a lot of the lift will be towards southern Colorado.
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The models predict a significant snow storm next Wednesday. As usual the GFS is loving the 11.8 to 18.1" near Denver, as it always loves forecasting high amounts of snow for the roughly 5-day forecast. Lots could change before the NWS issues a winter storm watch, but I do expect a winter storm watch at some time.
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February 8-9 Should There Be a Thread For This Storm
Chinook replied to Hoosier's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
This 500mb chart makes me think of tornadoes in March. As for now, SPC has 10% enhanced outlook for tornadoes today (-not- enhanced for wind/hail) -
Under "Anatomy and Physiology of Frosty the Snowman"
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My place had 4 sunny days in a row with snow on the ground. The last time my place had 4 sunny days within maybe a span of 5 days was probably November or October, with nearly summertime temperatures.
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As I mentioned in the Lakes/Ohio Valley banter thread, I have a hard time imagining a -44 degree value without radiational cooling and a valley with lighter winds, or at least some localized low spot. It's truly a once-in-a-generation 850mb temperature up there and also the same for wind chills for some.
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I can't imagine -44 without radiational cooling and mostly calm winds.
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The wind gets faster over mountain peaks and some mountain passes. The air is forced into a smaller- volume space: the mountain, and other air above it. You get a faster wind by conservation of mass flow. And maybe extra turbulence.
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Here a note on the Northeast wind chill blast. The GFS has -40C temps at 850mb for the Caribou, Maine area. I think it will be very close to a record or record-breaking at Caribou. The record coldest 850mb temperature is -39.40 Celsius as per the SPC page that has this stuff. The "median" would be -11.7 Celsius.
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Here is other note on the Northeast wind chill blast. The GFS has -40C temps at 850mb for the Caribou, Maine area. I think it will be very close to a record or record-breaking at Caribou. The record coldest 850mb temperature is -39.40 Celsius as per the SPC page that has this stuff. The "median" would be -11.7 Celsius.
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Part of Ontario near Sudbury is 49F degrees, or 27.2 C degrees, lower than yesterday. Sudbury went -4C to -33C in about 23 hours.
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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
Chinook replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
Chinook replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
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Anybody from Toronto in here? The GFS says -14F (-26C) with a wind of 10 knots (19 km/h) on Friday morning. The NAM has some temperatures that are not quite so cold.
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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022
Chinook replied to It's Always Sunny's topic in Central/Western States
Fort Worth had 0.30" reported freezing rain. Other note: thunder recently reported at the Dallas area and also Poteau, OK (temps below freezing on both) -
1.4" of sleet at Bentonville is an impressive storm report tonight when you've got 4 precip-type colors on radar
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my place got about 1/2" (surprise!)