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Chinook

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    It looks like the 0-1km SRH will be increasing a lot from +2hr to +6hr on the SPC mesoanalysis (23z to 03z). I must say that the current STP is very high at a value of 4, and that same value will shift eastward.
  2. Chinook
    I didn't really expect this to go to MODERATE at mid-day, but certainly the deep-layer shear is there 6-hr mesoanalysis (RAP) forecast of STP with the radar from (I believe) the HRRR 6hr forecast
  3. Chinook
    17" at Neenah (near Appleton)
  4. Chinook
    observations from 0927z, 4:27 AM Central
  5. Chinook
    some snow reports of 7-13" in NW Illinois
  6. Chinook
    basically that would convert to 131.1mph one way and 131.1mph the other way. But hey. that's like Cat-4 tornado (113kt-137kt)
  7. Chinook
    Yes, I got the same thing, it's 262.8mph, and effectively I haven't ever been able to see the data is this high of quality for this type of delta-v in my life.
  8. Chinook
    tornado may have tracked for 31-32 miles already
  9. Chinook
    Here's some hype for you. I think there's a high chance of EF1+ tornadoes and significant wind reports after sunset tomorrow. The nighttime severe is always more concerning, as people aren't ready for it.
  10. Chinook
    interesting that CIPS analog #3 lines up almost perfectly with the calendar date
  11. Chinook
    You could check annual graphics from the SPC going back several years to see the tornadoes in California. example: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2022_annual_summary.html
  12. Chinook
    This radar image from Montebello/Los Angeles tornado from a youtube video from channel "Convective Chronicles" (I recently found this excellent channel)
  13. Chinook
    Here is the NAM forecast sounding for eastern Arkansas for 03z (tomorrow night), with effective STP of 4.3. Some odd things going on in the hodograph at 3km above ground, but I'm not sure too much to talk about, given the fact that the rest of the hodograph is excellent for tornadoes. The 3km NAM (not shown here) has up to 490 m2/s2 of 3km SRH at the Arkansas/Louisiana border. HRRR for 03z tomorrow night
  14. Chinook
    new loop http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_5_2014_SfcRadar_loop.html
  15. Chinook
    I think this a new product by College of Dupage, Ensemble CAPE for the event that's now 96hr+ in the future, so it's not on the 3-day outlook
  16. Chinook
    near sunset
  17. Chinook
    Yesterday (Saturday) Toledo was 22 degrees with a wind chill of 8 degrees before midnight. It's kind of rough considering there had been a lot of warmer temperatures in February and so many days without snow. Toledo had a high of 33 and a low 22 which was -16 for the high and -8 for the low.
  18. Chinook
    I believe once Weathafella said that he remembered this heavy NY snow storm, which happened almost on St. Patrick's Day 1956
  19. Chinook
    I will call this the winter of A.R.N. Another Rainy Night.
  20. Chinook
    California has gone from flood to drought to flood. Sacramento had apparently 5.12" of precipitation in January. (I added this. The NOWDATA info said the data was missing) and already 2.98" between March 1 and March 15, making for 19.46" of precipitation since November 1st. That's almost 3x higher than the 2020 calendar year.
  21. Chinook
    radar/rain gauge adjusted MRMS precipitation for the last 72 hours
  22. Chinook
    As a non-northesterner, I still gotta say, this is quite a thing
  23. Chinook
    hence the Six States. Yes it's weird, I remember tracking it. the storm was quite washed out by the Michigan state line. but hey. Six States. Now, with the time change, we have to wait until 10:15 PM or 10:30 PM Eastern Daylight to get the 00z 3km-NAM and similar products. Boo.
  24. Chinook
    On this day in 2006, major tornado outbreak and the "Six-State Supercell," the supercell that brought the 66-mile tornado track that damaged Springfield IL (EF2). According to Wikipedia, 99 tornadoes confirmed from March 9 to March 13.
  25. Chinook
    It has been two years since the Big One.
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