Chinook

south of Minneapolis

Let's look at how many confirmed tornadoes there were in the winter, counting from the end of November. (Source: Wikipedia) November 29-30, 2022 tornadoes: 25, max: EF3, fatalities: 2 December 2022 tornadoes: 70, max: EF3. There were 68 tornadoes on December 12-15, with 3 fatalities in this outbreak. One tornado occurred on Dec. 29 and one on Dec. 30. January 2023 tornadoes: 125, max: EF3. There were 41 tornadoes on January 12th, with max EF3, and 8 fatalities. On January 24th, an EF3 tornado was in the Houston metro area. February 2023 tornadoes: 53, max: EF2. On February 26th and EF2 tornado moved through Norman Oklahoma with a 27 mile track. Fatalities: I didn't see anything on this, maybe zero. March 2023 tornadoes: 22, to this date, (posting date: March 5th). max: EF2 (two of them). Some tornadoes have been recent, but most likely the NWS has completed storm surveys (?) total tornadoes: 295 number of days from November 29th to March 4th: 96 average of 3.0 tornadoes per day. I think 3.0 tornadoes per day is way above average.

Looks like the new storm is moving in to Minneapolis

The GFS has a complicated snowy scenario for a lot of the northern Plains coming up this week, which would include northern Colorado in the snow. The ECMWF does not really have the snow.

Toledo has had 2 months of soggy rainstorms since Dec 29, as shown on this chart. Relatively little of this total precipitation was snow.

a solid zone of snow on radar has transitioned to a few localized moderate snow bands

preliminary storm reports are 3.5" to 6" (isolated) in northwest Detroit

This must be wet snowflakes that are bright banding

thundersnow on the radar screen as well as local airport observations at Adrian MI, Decatur IL

well, this is in the Ohio Valley area... apparently this was a confirmed tornado, and a few more warnings in the Evansville region

I found this preliminary information

There have been preliminary tornado reports near Champaign, Plainfield, and Naperville

new confirmed tornado near Meeker/ Johnson about 35 miles from Oklahoma city

the radar's tilt-2 is doing a better job of picking up the debris as it is close to KTLX radar, and I suppose could even hit it

confirmed tornado passed US77 highway on the south side of Norman

Such a strange day for February. I've honestly never seen the shear parameters we've seen today with storms. I mean, 0-6km shear of 100 kt only happens with colder air, right?

Oklahoma City confirmed tornado warning (I believe TDS occurred recently next to Mustang)

some near hurricane force wind gusts

TDS popped up next to Hobart OK

possible tornado at the TX/OK border (same cell with the 114mph wind gust measured a while ago). The SPC mesoanalysis now has 1000 m2/s2 of 0-3km storm relative helicity here. confirmed tornado announced at 724pm central time

New tornado may be forming west of Dodge City

This tornado-warned storm is northwest of Dodge City and is on the edge of the CAPE. It's just so unusual to see severe weather so far west

Here is radar right now, near the start of the severe weather event. Some non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 55mph-80mph have been in the region. I'm assuming some blowing dust is the reason that some stations report haze.

this is the first analog from CIPS (last night)

Behind the cold front and in front of the cold front. The colder air really does have a warmer part of the profile at 500mb that looks like a nose. It seems like winds could be 60kt-70kt just above ground in the Texas Panhandle.