Chinook

maybe a series of scud clouds or wall cloud development yesterday.

Tornado warned cell and two large severe warned cells near Brady TX (San Angelo radar)

HRRR has some storms 03z to 12z near Dallas, with effective helicity/effective shear very favorable for supercells. The surface based updrafts may not happen at all overnight (should be weaker effective helicity)

There was 3" hail where GRLevel3 said 3" hail north of Fort Worth

This is the first rain in Toledo since May 19-20 when 0.3" to 0.5" fell. Also, first 50 degree dew point in Toledo for quite some time. Such an odd time. I feel like somehow I dragged the high plains droughty Fort Collins weather with me, with approximately 22 days without rain, persistent and concentrated wildfire smoke, and frequent dew points in the 40's. The opposite thing seemed to have happened earlier this year. My place got soaking rain with temps of 33-50 degrees all the time in January and February, which is very opposite to the western weather, that is, no rain on the high plains, either sun or snow.

Some actual severe storm reports. You could call this a decently organized slight/enhanced sort of day. For once in the last several weeks.

It's June 10 and the nearest 50 dew point to me is Farmington, Missouri or Pittsfield, Illinois. It should be all 60-70 across the board.

Ryan Hall said: It's the 4th consecutive May without a violent tornado There was not a single report of wind, hail, or tornado in New York or Pennsylvania in May

I wish I could see any raindrops. As per the 12z convection-allowing models, there should be a few storms in E Texas at 18z that will fall apart and leave behind some form of an outflow boundary. Then, there will probably be several cells forming into an MCS south of Dallas. It seems like there may be a corridor of over 200 m2/s2 of storm relative helicity and 30kt to possibly 40kt of shear powering up these cells. Also, as you may have seen in Ed's post (the previous post,) the forecast sounding has high SHIP (sig hail parameter) and so forth. So, hail of 1"-2" should be quite likely, with maximum hail over 2" possible. As per Ed (previous post) I wouldn't be surprised if the MCS continues more eastward or southward towards Houston than today's 12z models are showing.

This plot shows that the 500mb wind averaged to be zero over the lower Great Lakes over this specific 11-day period

some ugly visible satellite images, and you can see that typically the high smoke concentration shows up better on visible satellite closer to sunrise and sunset

I don't think I've seen a 36 dew point in Toledo in June, other than today. And what a firey day it is, with higher surface smoke concentrations. It does appear that dew points of upper 20's to lower 30's have happened at a combination of FNT and DTX sounding locations at some past time

This map says it's unhealthy for sensitive groups in Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa

Today was some of the haziest weather I have seen without being close to a wildfire. I drove to work after sunrise and the sun was red. I smelled smoke briefly yesterday, I think a couple of times. When I lived out West, I smelled smoke from -distant- fires on several days over the course of several years. And then there were the close wild fires in Colorado, and that is not necessarily something I need to compare to weather today in Ohio. Finally, the HRRR shows integrated smoke density and surface smoke density correctly. Both values are very high over my area. I'm not sure what happened at NCEP before but it didn't correctly have these variables over a week ago.

My place in Ohio could badly use the 1" that fell on Loveland.

I forgot what westerly winds feel like. There haven't seen a westerly winds for a week. And honestly it was kind of nice. 90 degrees with dew point of 50 or degrees even lower reminds me of Denver. But then again, the grass in everybody's front yard is starting to look like the prairie grass. The natural prairie grass in Colorado dries out as soon as you hit 90 or 95 on the high plain.

hey this is fun

There were tornado(es) reported north and east of Fort Stockton and also a confirmed warning existed a while ago, in the range of 25-35 miles SE of Fort Stockton.

New thought here. The map from ESRL-PSD says the northwest Ohio division was possibly +2.5 to +3.0 degrees F for July (not sure about the colors) Let's look at some numbers that are the specific observations at the airport. Toledo had an average temperature 75.9 which is listed in this table as 0.5 degrees above average as seen here. The 1991-2020 current 30yr average July is 73.8 degrees. The 1951-1980 average July temperature was 72.1 degrees. so 75.9 would have been +2.1 based on the recent data but it would have been +3.8 based off the data up to 1980. So I'm confused.

This summer is looking bad already as a blocking pattern has made the rainfall go away for the last 3 weeks here. Let's look at a historical d***ght of 1988. It stunk. I remember it. Up to that point in my life I had never heard a weatherman say it was 104 degrees outside. The development really happened in April as the temperatures over southern Canada and the northern Midwest and Rockies were very high. Then, May and June got very dry and then also very hot over a lot of the central to eastern US. The core of the driest weather moved eastward in June. The monthly precipitation plot shows that the precipitation departure was -3 inches over the entire eastern USA. Considering the entire month of July, northwest Ohio had normal precipitation but was still suffering from the effects of drought. The Palmer Drought Index showed a continued drought into September here. In August, the Palmer Drought Index showed extreme drought in the Appalachians, Illinois, and also the northern tier of the US. Some Toledo stats. On June 25, Toledo hit 104 degrees. Then, on July 1st there was a low temperature of 40 degrees, which is nearly unthinkable for mid-summer. Then on July 6th-8th, it was 100, 103, and 100. That's such a crazy change of temperature that is indicative of low soil moisture. This was some of the worst soil moisture that NW Ohio has ever had, as the July Palmer Drought Index was -4 (see plot). Toledo had only minor rainfall until July 18th, but then more rain. July 1988 had a monthly temperature near normal and precipitation above normal at Toledo. The heavy rainfall occurred in between July 30th to the end of August. PRECIPITATION, standardized departure, as calculated by the ESRL-PSD web site June 1988 precipitation departure, in INCHES

It looks like some lake-breeze convergence helped kick off the storms near Chicago. I wish that would happen here.

At my current location in Ohio at 41.5 degrees north, sunrise is 6:03AM and sunset is 9:01PM. At Fort Collins it is 5:32AM and 8:24PM. The sunset time is a difference of 37 minutes, plus extras due to the mountains. For an equivalent location with latitude of 41.5 in Wyoming, directly north of Fort Collins, it would be 5:29 and 8:27.

Denver has a chance of rain for 7 days. This storm was very loaded with rain and hail for several minutes

Lochbuie CoCoRAHS spotter near the Airport got 7.17" of precip. That's like more than half a year of precip for a bunch of areas, considering 14" per year.

New upslope storms have formed at Boulder and near Denver. I'm not sure if these could stall and produce a flash flood. this was at 3:44 Greley precipitation this month (CoCoRAHS)