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Chinook

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    Unfiltered storm reports on three previous days. Up to 161/990 preliminary unfiltered reports on March 31st.
  2. Chinook
    Now there are have peak winds gusts of 47mph at Defiance without thunderstorms
  3. Chinook
    The radar is kind of a mess, with only 4 severe warnings in the country right now. I'm not used to temp of 77 with dew of 63. It's like insta-summer. I'm used to getting the first few 70 degree temps out West, not too long after snow, with a dew point of 20 and a view of the snowy mountains. The SPC really kind of busted with the Arkansas area yesterday, you know, like 100% bust when you look at this map.
  4. Chinook
    Almost baseball size hail north of the warm front near I-80. That's pretty nasty considering the storm doesn't even seem that big, and the surface based CAPE is 0. VIL and reflectivity maxed out near Princeton, so that must be the region where the large hail developed.
  5. Chinook
    A little morning-time rear flank downdraft
  6. Chinook
    There is 1.5"-2.5" in Fort Collins and Loveland, some snow in Denver. A massive section of Wyoming and the Dakotas have a blizzard warning today.
  7. Chinook
    I don't think the CAMs have a lot of storms, if you exclude the FV3 monster storm near Chicago. (seriously, that's like a 10mile wide updraft helicity track. I mean, it could represent a realistic tornado threat that's not a super monster.)
  8. Chinook
    Maybe this is just a case where the 12z CAM models see a cap of some strength. Then, none of the CAM models have much convection at 00z-04z tomorrow night. The SPC is essentially saying they're just really wrong.
  9. Chinook
    The newest rage in town: CAPE with embedded hodographs
  10. Chinook
    While we are waiting for this to get on the Day-2 type time frame, I'll post the CIPS analogs, with Apr. 2, 12z data, for two different sectors. The way the data goes into the sector of the analog system must make a significant difference as to which analogs are picked. And get this: None of these analogs are what Ryan Hall mentioned as the best analogs, 4/26/94 and 2/29/2012. Midwest sector Southern Plains sector.
  11. Chinook
    I think this is a sneaky non-TDS as the velocities aren't very high. Any thoughts?
  12. Chinook
    Does this qualify as a derecho?
  13. Chinook
    Here is definitely a bounded weak echo region with the supercell shape and tornado warning. It seems like the velocity data has just been showing convergence rather than an easy-to-view mesocylone
  14. Chinook
    There are storms on every side of Dallas/Fort Worth. Several new small storms are popping as potentially a new group of supercells. Maybe one of those could become dominant.
  15. Chinook
    I think the storm near Stephenville has transitioned from being mainly a hail storm to maybe getting a bunch of rotation right now.
  16. Chinook
    some storm chaser probably has a good view of a wall cloud, or even a tornado (no direct evidence of a tornado yet.)
  17. Chinook
    Dallas has a 64 dew point, up from a dew point of 17 yesterday (2:53AM on April 1st). It's just amazing how that works.
  18. Chinook
    This one was a bit of a surprise as I thought maybe nothing would happen before the next large low pressure system. Things seem reasonably favorable for tornadoes. Some areas could be above 200m2/s2 of storm relative helicity (0-3km). Actually the NAM has up to 400 m2/s2 by the late day! The HRRR has some discrete storms and also a cluster of storms near/south of Fort Worth.
  19. Chinook
    NWS now says 1-3" near Fort Collins, maybe 6" for Estes Park, and up to 20-24" at Casper/Casper Mountain, Wyoming
  20. Chinook
    Severe weather polygons of all types from 3:00AM March 31 to April 2 (early)
  21. Chinook
    A large storm system on Monday night will most likely be a close call for heavy snow at Fort Collins and Estes Park.
  22. Chinook
    low-instability severe squall came though here around 11:00AM. At the time I didn't realize there would be this storm report of over 82mph over the Lake
  23. Chinook
    The 500mb anomaly, shown here with Jan 10th-Mar 30th, highlights the exact area with the most precipitation this year: mid-California
  24. Chinook
    Was that Upper Freehold, Pennsylvania? I'm not familiar with where this tornado warning took place.
  25. Chinook
    for those interested, this was a tornado reported by a spotter(s) at 6:01 and 6:06, Bridgeville. I am not sure if it was a tornado after 6:06PM
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