Chinook

There were tornado(es) reported north and east of Fort Stockton and also a confirmed warning existed a while ago, in the range of 25-35 miles SE of Fort Stockton.

New thought here. The map from ESRL-PSD says the northwest Ohio division was possibly +2.5 to +3.0 degrees F for July (not sure about the colors) Let's look at some numbers that are the specific observations at the airport. Toledo had an average temperature 75.9 which is listed in this table as 0.5 degrees above average as seen here. The 1991-2020 current 30yr average July is 73.8 degrees. The 1951-1980 average July temperature was 72.1 degrees. so 75.9 would have been +2.1 based on the recent data but it would have been +3.8 based off the data up to 1980. So I'm confused.

This summer is looking bad already as a blocking pattern has made the rainfall go away for the last 3 weeks here. Let's look at a historical d***ght of 1988. It stunk. I remember it. Up to that point in my life I had never heard a weatherman say it was 104 degrees outside. The development really happened in April as the temperatures over southern Canada and the northern Midwest and Rockies were very high. Then, May and June got very dry and then also very hot over a lot of the central to eastern US. The core of the driest weather moved eastward in June. The monthly precipitation plot shows that the precipitation departure was -3 inches over the entire eastern USA. Considering the entire month of July, northwest Ohio had normal precipitation but was still suffering from the effects of drought. The Palmer Drought Index showed a continued drought into September here. In August, the Palmer Drought Index showed extreme drought in the Appalachians, Illinois, and also the northern tier of the US. Some Toledo stats. On June 25, Toledo hit 104 degrees. Then, on July 1st there was a low temperature of 40 degrees, which is nearly unthinkable for mid-summer. Then on July 6th-8th, it was 100, 103, and 100. That's such a crazy change of temperature that is indicative of low soil moisture. This was some of the worst soil moisture that NW Ohio has ever had, as the July Palmer Drought Index was -4 (see plot). Toledo had only minor rainfall until July 18th, but then more rain. July 1988 had a monthly temperature near normal and precipitation above normal at Toledo. The heavy rainfall occurred in between July 30th to the end of August. PRECIPITATION, standardized departure, as calculated by the ESRL-PSD web site June 1988 precipitation departure, in INCHES

It looks like some lake-breeze convergence helped kick off the storms near Chicago. I wish that would happen here.

At my current location in Ohio at 41.5 degrees north, sunrise is 6:03AM and sunset is 9:01PM. At Fort Collins it is 5:32AM and 8:24PM. The sunset time is a difference of 37 minutes, plus extras due to the mountains. For an equivalent location with latitude of 41.5 in Wyoming, directly north of Fort Collins, it would be 5:29 and 8:27.

Denver has a chance of rain for 7 days. This storm was very loaded with rain and hail for several minutes

Lochbuie CoCoRAHS spotter near the Airport got 7.17" of precip. That's like more than half a year of precip for a bunch of areas, considering 14" per year.

New upslope storms have formed at Boulder and near Denver. I'm not sure if these could stall and produce a flash flood. this was at 3:44 Greley precipitation this month (CoCoRAHS)

Pellston MI, the Ice Box, was 29 degrees, yesterday. That's pretty bad for May. I guess it's known as being the ice box for being just far enough away from Lake Michigan to get away from the moderating effect of the water, and far enough north to be under the colder temperatures aloft.

this one would have annoyed me as the heavy rain just avoided Loveland. There was up to 1.25" hail in downtown/north metro at rush hour on the Friday before Memorial Day! Traffic got kind of slammed I'm sure.

1" hail reported at Englewood and Centennial

It looks like the forest fire smoke went away today. I hope it stays away. Probably not. I think it got pushed west, just to get pushed east later.

From what I can tell, the forest fire smoke has been above Colorado, as well as most of the Midwest. For my area, I noticed it a week ago, but I don't know if the smoke was over Colorado for all this time. Here are RMNP web cams haze other haze

I want some thunderstorms to track in the Midwest.

Global models have this storm going over Rota Island, Northern Mariana Islands, part of the USA.

Hello, Newman.

Excellent sunset photo

I need to turn on my thunder magnet.

Since there's basically nothing happening across the country, here's the skew-T for my area today, without the severe weather indices. The cooling of the cold front made the 925mb-850mb temp to 3 degrees C this morning. There wasn't an inversion in mid-day, but rather a strong heating from the surface to 850mb, with then a nearly zero lapse rate above that. That's quite a chunk of dry cooler air from 850mb-700mb. It was breezy. Yesterday, Toledo had 80/38, notably, lower dew points than NE Colorado yesterday. That's hard to do.

And, I might add, I still don't know why the HRRR has about zero smoke density in our area, when it should be a moderate value.

For me, the haze is obvious on the satellite image. I see a white-ish sky, but not a red sun tonight. There's only a been a hint of the slight yellow tint of the sunlight that happens when you get heavy forest fire smoke.

I mentioned this in the Mountain West discussion: British Columbia had temperatures on 5/14 and 5/15 I don't think I've seen in May at any time.

This has got to be forest fire smoke. It's a red sun tonight. The HRRR says the vertically integrated smoke is zero, but that's wrong.

Somebody is getting a heat wave. The Great White North