Chinook

tornado reported in eastern South Dakota with this supercell. Sanborn/Beadle counties

Looks like they got it fixed. KMBX is detecting a severe thunderstorm right now! I am back in mid-Iowa. I could make tomorrow a storm chasing day in Nebraska, but I probably won't. CAPE will be very high along my travels on I-80 tomorrow, but I think storms may be very late in the day, such as at 03z. I hope to be done with the trip by 9:00 mountain time.

It may be very interesting soon, as in tornado warned. There is a tornado warned cell near Falls City Nebraska. This is a heck of a small warning polygon.

Some mini-supercells appear to be popping up near the SRH maximum at the Missouri river. Maybe these will get within several miles of me in Iowa. I'm not really counting on it though.

Hey, I'm on the edge of the 15% hail risk area in Iowa. I got tired of driving in the drizzly rain and got a hotel. What a great storm chaser I am-- I can't even take a little rain with traffic. Oh well, I made it 600mi, so that's good. I wonder if any storms will visit me.

Well, tomorrow could be a lot more interesting than I thought. I am driving through the slight risk area tomorrow. I may just want to continue on to Des Moines by early evening. I do not like seeing the NAM predict precipitation in Nebraska before 18z. That means I will probably have to drive through some morning-MCS rain. Perhaps it will be even more exciting than that. I like dry roads.

Definitely some low-altitude rotation seen by KAMA radar. I am impressed, considering that sometimes the supercell threat is quite low in July down there. I saw the report of the baseball-size hail. Ouch. This time of year, it's the time for watching baseball games, not getting baseball hail.

possible tornado(es), 91mph wind gust, 80mph wind gust, golf ball size hail in NW Nebraska from that cell.

decently strong mesocyclone at Rushville/Gordon Nebraska (Sheridan County). Perhaps a tornado warning will be soon.

June 27th may have been one of the most active tornado days of the year, with tornadoes in Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota. SPC unfiltered reports for this day show 48 tornado reports. Several tornadoes occurred in North Dakota. I believe there were 20 tornadoes in the Grand Forks CWA alone, based on these storm report lists/storm survey reports: http://kamala.cod.edu/nd/latest.nwus53.KFGF.html http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KFGF/1507020315.nous43.html -- NWS Grand Forks -- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1015 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 ..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/27/15 TORNADO OUTBREAK ..THREE ADDITIONAL TORNADOES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED AND SURVEYED OVERVIEW NUMEROUS TORNADOES WERE SPAWNED DURING AN OUTBREAK WHICH INITIATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MOVED SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. MORE THAN A DOZEN TORNADOES HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED WITH THIS OUTBREAK IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADOES HAVING POSSIBLY OCCURRED ADJACENT COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA AS WELL.

tornado reported at Raytown at the time of this image

Right now: tornado watch has been issued in the radar-hole-land of west ND, east MT. Tomorrow, I agree with you. The area from Kansas City to the MO/AR border should see several thunderstorms. I think there will be some severe wx in this area, and also some areas of elevated T-storms that are sub-severe. NAM 84-hr rain totals show pretty high rain amounts, most of Missouri, to Memphis and Paducah.

NWS 4-km precipitation analysis available here (for free) http://models.weatherbell.com/hrap/nws_precip.php shows that Toledo has had 9-11 inches of rain in 30 days (as of a couple of days ago) and Cleveland has had 9-13 inches. That's huge!

A tornado has been reported at Gardar, ND. The storm cell was kind of a mess. The storm dropped almost straight south out of Canada. You don't see too many tornadic storms dropping out of Canada. Edit: swarm of tornadoes in northeastern North Dakota

HRRR is advertising a relatively long squall line in TX and OK.

Several storms are developing in the tornado watch area now. They all seem fairly ordinary, though.

4.51" in an hour at Corpus Christi Airport.

NWS Norman tweeted this about Oklahoma City: May 2015 may set the record for the wettest month since records began in late 1890. Already at # 5.

Nebraska and Kansas are about 1/2 filled with light rain. It's just amazing how many rain events have happened on the plains. Maybe we could even get rid of some of the drought in Minnesota.

tornado reported on a second supercell that has tracked southeast of Hallam/Princeton Nebraska

Wenesday could be pretty active, as a shortwave will kick out from the southwest into the Plains from Tuesday to Wednesday. The NAM and GFS show plenty of rain in the southern Plains on Wednesday, perhaps meaning that broad-scale convection could hurt chances of destabilization.

hail size and VIL are large (3.52" and 127 kg/m2) on this storm south of Lincoln Nebraska

Yesterday's long-range GFS came up with a fantasy storm for mid-Lake Erie to Windsor ONT. Today, fantasy for CLE-BUF.

NWS point&click and MEX-MOS has 4 out the next 5 mornings at or below 0 for Toledo area. The average low for these days is 23!

Toledo is just 0.7" away from tying the record snowiest February. (25.2" and 25.1" are the top 2, separated by 111 years)