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Chinook

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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    Typhoon Malakas at about the strongest point. The people of Taiwan must feel like a bad weather magnet recently. Typhoon Malakas maxed out at Cat 4, 115 kt at Sept. 16, 18z, reasonably close to Taiwan. Image is from Sept. 16, 2020z. Now it is moving toward southwestern Japan.
  2. Chinook
    tornado sirens blowing in downtown Odessa?
  3. Chinook
    a couple of landspout tornadoes (sort of out-of-season now) in CO/KS and hail in Texas/NM. Locally 4200 J/kg MUCAPE, 52 kt effective shear, 210 m2/s2 of SRH near these supercells. (forecast sounding near Andrews, TX)
  4. Chinook
    There have been some heavy storms in central Plains today. There has been 5-7" of rain northwest of Omaha, and flash flooding is going on there. With over 70 storm reports today, it has been the most active plains day since 9/4. Several storm reports in New Mexico.
  5. Chinook
    WPC forecast has 2.0" for Oklahoma City, Lubbock in 5 days, 1.75" for Kansas City. Kansas City and Wichita have already been very wet in the last 3 weeks.
  6. Chinook
    New JTWC forecasts take it south of Taiwan, meaning that there could be a greater wind speed when it reaches China (perhaps 105kt) near Chaozhou-Jieyang-Shantou metro. Shantou harbor is next to the sea, urban population 5.3 million.
  7. Chinook
    I thought the Japanese were beginning recon in 2017 (after many years of no recon.)
  8. Chinook
    JTWC now forecasts Meranti to be 160 kt in 6 hrs (2:00AM Eastern). Isn't that close to Haiyan's peak intensity?
  9. Chinook
    recent landfalls on Taiwan Typhoon Soudelor (early August 2015) Typhoon Dujuan (late September 2015) Typhoon Nepartak (early July 2016)
  10. Chinook
    Now I found satellite imagery that is up to date. This one is from 0120z September 12 (9:20 Eastern). I think the yellow areas are -80C, so that is some very cold -70C areas in a CDO wrapping around a narrow eye. Obviously the satellite based T-number must be very good and there is good outflow to the east and north.
  11. Chinook
    There seems to be a lot of consensus concerning Typhoon Meranti. It has strengthened from 45kt to 100kt since the last time I posted. The GFS ensembles and HWRF predict Meranti to approach Taiwan from the southeast and track through Taiwan. The JTWC now has a max intensity forecast of 135kt at Sep 13, 06z, a few hundred miles from Taiwan. Note: Category 5 Saffir-Simpson is 137kt and greater. Typhoons are not usually given Saffir-Simpson categories. satellite image is from 0320z, which is from last night...18 hours old, it is 2134z right now. I have no idea why I can't find an updated satellite image.
  12. Chinook
    Was Houston vs. Lamar football game delayed about 2 hrs by lightning? Not sure. I saw that it was delayed at some point today. It didn't look like a thunderstorm was over downtown Houston. I am not that interested in the final score, but if weather played a factor in a long delay.
  13. Chinook
    Tropical Storm Meranti, now at 45kt, is expected to be 115 kt (category 4 on Saffir-Simpson) in 72 hrs. The GFS full resolution Meranti (see TropicalTidbits) has 915 mb, 115kt at 90 hours!! It will be near Taiwan. I suppose some uncertainty exists with respect to track.
  14. Chinook
    For Sunday, there will be CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg in the central Dakotas with 0-6km wind shear values of 30-50kt in the unstable sector east of the front. Convection-allowing models (NAM 4km, WRF models) show convection in central and eastern North Dakota, as well as southwest South Dakota, with scattered storms in Nebraska at 00z. (7pm Sunday). I think there will be some hail/wind reports. There should be some chance for tornadoes where (and if) SRH values increase above 250m2/s2. Those areas, maybe 5% tornado chances, could be central SD to central ND.
  15. Chinook
    There has been an estimated 5 to 6.5" of rain along the track of this supercell. It will be interesting to see if there are some tornado surveys that come out of this. I hope the tornado(es) didn't hit anybody's house!
  16. Chinook
    strong, wide circulation detected by radar with this tornado, this is an HP or classic supercell, SE of Grand Forks
  17. Chinook
    Here's the locations of the three tornadoes in ND today, which were around 2110 to 2120z. The plot is the composite reflectivity at 2128z
  18. Chinook
    Kansas City area had 3 to 5" of rain today. Flash flood warnings are now in effect for all of the metro, up to about 70 miles northeast of KC. FLASH FLOOD: CAR SUBMERGED WITH WATER ABOVE FRONT TIRE, VIA TWITTER (this is somewhat near downtown KC.)
  19. Chinook
    3 tornadoes have been reported northeast of the Kansas City metro, close to I-35. Looks like a really small mid-latitude cyclone.
  20. Chinook
    I just realized that Dallas-Fort Worth hit 107 on August 12, with dew point of 66 and heat index of 113. That is pretty bad. Or good, if you are in the business of selling air conditioners for a profit. Looks like things have been below normal for a little while.
  21. Chinook
    Those are some great pictures, Quincy! In the severe weather game I am playing on a different forum, I picked Buffalo SD, and I got some points for hail. You took pictures of the exact cell that gave me points. I continued to watch the radar after the storms passed by my zone. There must have been some horrendous 2 to 3" per hour rain rates, along with some areas of hail and wind, as the storm complex continued eastward. It looked more like a bow echo later on. There was a tornado warning with a discrete supercell west of Aberdeen, but I don't believe that resulted in a tornado.
  22. Chinook
    Loading this web site is like driving into road construction. Up to this point, I believe there have been 4 tornadoes, some funnel clouds, some large hail and wind reports in northeast North Dakota.
  23. Chinook
    The SPC 06z day-1 outlook has an Enhanced outlook for eastern North Dakota (tomorrow, 8/3). There should be an area of North Dakota where SRH will be at least 250 m2/s2, along with CAPE of 3000 J/kg + and 0-6 km shear values of 30-40kt.
  24. Chinook
    * AT 745 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW RAYMER. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. --- My place has had only a small fraction of that 2" since June 1st. New Raymer isn't that far away.
  25. Chinook
    I wonder if any storm chasers will get terrific pics of the tornado warned storm 75 mi east of Fort Collins.
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