Chinook

Irma's landfall on Florida mainland was 1938z, sounds like daylight, 3:38PM

Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location

Oranjestad, Sint Eustatius, Netherlands Antilles is getting 28 kt gusting to 52 kt (greater than 50 kt is a storm-force or a severe thunderstorm). St. Croix Airport has weaker winds now, but will soon be going up.

St. Croix is now getting 20 kt gusting to 33 kt wind - almost a tropical storm. They are in the light rain.

Most recent recon data plot from Maria (Tropical tidbits data plots) shows the pressure may be closer to 910mb than 925mb. 914.6mb on the other zoomed in data plot. What will the official center fix pressure? 916mb? Is this lower than Hurricane Irma had at any point? I think it's close. Did Irma get to 915 or 916 mb?

The latest HRRR shows several storms developing in this area. Many of them seem to be linear-- there are no highly intense updraft helicity tracks. I think tornadoes are possible, but there probably won't be many. I think there will be few reports of 2"-3" hail, probably several reports of 1"-2" hail and wind damage.

Here is the 00z European EPS spaghetti plots for Tropical Storm Maria. I am very concerned that this will cause damage and loss of life on several Lesser Antilles islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and The Bahamas.

Typhoon Talim, now west of Okinawa and northeast of Taiwan, has been rated at 115 kt (Category 4 starts at 113kt) by the JTWC. It is heading for landfall in southern Japan soon with a wind of 100-110 kt. The storm should track over a considerable section of Japan. JTWC discussion mentions that it likely peaked at 127 kt a few hrs ago.

Those are some really good pics. Thanks for sharing. I don't think I'll see much unless the auroral oval gets to Montana. Doesn't seem to be happening.

I think we can safely say that the 12z GFS intensifies Tropical Cyclone Sanvu

storm reports for eastern Texas (HGX, LCH, CRP offices) Aug 24-Aug 26 at 4:00PM

associated with Tropical Storm Harvey- small tornado-warned supercell, near Houston, tracking northwestward

The sky looked mostly dark in Wyoming, and I could see Venus overhead. As you can see here, the trees look black in this picture because there was zero radiation directly on the trees. We had totally clear skies, and I saw the diamond ring quite well. I saw a bit of the shadow snakes on a white sheet. I was amazed that the shadow snakes worked. Some of these places in Wyoming may have seen more traffic than they have seen in human history. People said it took 6 hrs to go from Casper to Fort Collins, coming home. I did not get jammed up on I-25 for very long. I took a detour to Laramie and then to Fort Collins. I still hit an eclipse traffic jam north of Laramie, on normally empty Highway 287. I did get heavy traffic on I-25 at 5:00 AM. That was so weird. eclipse in a box

60-day percent of normal precipitation and drought monitor for possible landfall areas, show a minor drought near Corpus Christi, but above normal precipitation around Houston.

Typhoon Hato intensified from 45 kt to 90 kt in a relatively short time (JTWC analysis) . Here is the typhoon on Aug 22 at 22:30z (which was morning for this part of the world). Hong Kong is just north of the eyewall. Macau is north of the eyewall. On the HWRF map you can see Hong Kong getting the tip of the 64 kt winds.

tornado spotted at Almeria, Nebraska

dual rotations at Almeria, Nebraska

Here is a tornado-warned classic supercell in the center of Nebraska. There is no debris indication on CC

There could be millions of people disappointed with this eclipse, just because millions of people will try to see it. Overall, I think MO/KY/TN might get an average of about 20% to 40% chance of cloudiness at any given moment in late August. In the Mountain West, climatologically there's a very good chance of seeing the sun at 11:00AM in places like Wyoming.

Phil Klotzbach tweeted this: After 14.25 days as a typhoon, #Noru has finally weakened to a tropical storm. It is 2nd longest-lived NW Pac typhoon on record (since 1950)

Typhoon Noru has been a named storm since 7/21/12z. It has 31 ACE units, the most in the year thus far, beating out Hurricane Fernanda. It has the highest intensity (Cat. 5, briefly 140 kt) and highest ACE of any storm in the northern Hemisphere this year. I believe it has been the strongest storm in the world since Super Typhoon Haima (2016) of 145 kt intensity.

According to what I am seeing, 90-99% sun coverage will track through Iowa, and some of Illinois and Indiana

I may go up to some dusty dirt road near Casper WY for the eclipse. It is looking kind of unlikely for me, personally though. Thankfully, it's usually sunny in the mornings here and I may get to see the partial eclipse from town.

Short term models are also quite vigorous with CAPE on Friday, in MO and OK along I-44. CAPE should be 3000-5000 J/kg, and there should be around 30 kt of shear. Maybe a slight risk for Tulsa to Springfield.

The SPC and several model forecasts show a fairly decent severe weather risk (again) in the Midwest/ Central Plains on Thursday. SPC has enhanced for southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas. This is getting into the time of the year when organized severe thunderstorms are sometimes hard to find, or fairly far north. Part of SPC discussion from 17z (June 28)