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Chinook

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    SPC day-3 (Friday) outlook includes northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas. Tonight's 3km NAM shows this impressive sounding near Texarkana, AR. This is some nifty eye-candy. It is In the warm sector, before scattered storms develop in Oklahoma/Arkansas. The only weakness here would be winds that are weaker at 300mb-250mb, compared to 500mb.
  2. Chinook
    This is the new graph, with the new value for April at about 5.99 tornadoes/day. This is very close to the value from UStornadoes.com web site, which is 5.93 tornadoes/day, if you just divide their number by 30. Also, their value for June is 7.6 tornadoes/day, vs. my calculation at 6.8 tornadoes/day. So that is a kind of interesting deviation from the long-term dataset.
  3. Chinook
    For this data, I have looked at 2010-2017, 8-year climatology of severe weather reports per day. All numbers come from http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html March tornadoes have been relatively low in this 8-year time period, compared to April. This is probably due to weak severe weather setups in March, over a period of years. -- Edit: a longer-term climatology of tornadoes/month is posted here: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/06/annual-and-monthly-tornado-averages-across-the-united-states/ --
  4. Chinook
    The last time we saw a decent amount of severe weather was March 19th and 20th. Considering prospects for tornadoes are not too high over the next few days, this means we have gone through another dorky March with respect to severe weather. Not that I want anyone to have damage/fatalities from these things, it's just that cool weather patterns prevailed in March 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2018 for sure.
  5. Chinook
    There seem to be even more tornado warnings, even into the nighttime. Here's a confirmed tornado -- ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY... At 830 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Jacksonville State University, or near Jacksonville, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.
  6. Chinook
    Not sure if we are talking about the same thing, but the area near the HTX radar is now tornado warned (8 mi west of radar). Interestingly, google maps shows terrain with 800 ft vertical differences there.
  7. Chinook
    The models show that DFW metro area will be near a surface warm front, with dryline existing at some point in central Texas tomorrow. SBCAPE values are forecast to be over 2000 J/kg south of the warm front. It is possible that severe storms will form near the warm front. The SPC could upgrade this area to a limited-area slight risk or keep it at a marginal risk.
  8. Chinook
    I was searching around on Youtube and I found a very good lecture series about tornado forecasting done by Rich Thompson of the SPC. Hopefully this link will take you to the whole playlist, including 9 lectures.
  9. Chinook
    I'm surprised we haven't had any people post directly from Houston. Didn't we have some members there? Houston: 27 degrees with -FZRAPL and with 15 kt winds. Yikes!
  10. Chinook
    Rain changed to freezing rain and then snow at Longview (center of this image)
  11. Chinook
    It's almost like these deformation banding features wish to be lake effect bands. Wind gusts to 36kt at Cleveland Lakefront.
  12. Chinook
    Ravenna ASOS says +RA and 30 degrees. Oops, I guess that's +FZRA (maybe?), Akron City has snow, Euclid KCGF has freezing rain, Cleveland Lakefront has -RA and below freezing.
  13. Chinook
    In Torreon Mexico, a desert area, it snowed at 34 degrees this morning. METAR: MMTC 081040Z 35004KT 1SM -SN OVC005 01/00 A3027 RMK 8/7// RTS
  14. Chinook
    JTWC forecast calls for Tropical Storm Saola to become a borderline 65 kt Category 1 cyclone southwest of Tokyo and then miss Tokyo by a little bit. The GFS and Euro later have this cyclone merging with baroclinic energy to create **another** huge low pressure near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Perhaps so much energy in the Pacific will send some more interesting downstream troughs and ridges our way.
  15. Chinook
    How bad could this be for Tokyo Bay, in winds and surge?
  16. Chinook
    According to JTWC, Tyhoon Lan peaked at 135 last night (daytime for that area of the world), which is ever so close to category-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
  17. Chinook
    It' an amazing visible satellite image right now
  18. Chinook
    Hi! In the mid-range, this storm could be near Tokyo (see the JTWC forecast.) In the long range, this powerful storm now looks to recurve more east of Japan, rather than heading more north towards the mid-Bering Sea.
  19. Chinook
    kind of a cool satellite image already, with -80C cloud tops.
  20. Chinook
    Developing Tropical Storm Lam in the Pacific could make for some dangerous situations in Japan, and some interesting satellite images as it tracks northwards and merges with the westerlies, after being 130 kt. (Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.) It's kind of amazing this could go from 10 degrees North to the Bering Sea or nearby.
  21. Chinook
    W. Pac is at 54% of normal ACE, with some above normal SSTs in the basin. What killed the W. Pac tropical season?
  22. Chinook
    Texas/New Mexico may get a bit of rain
  23. Chinook
    Typhoon Talim, now west of Okinawa and northeast of Taiwan, has been rated at 115 kt (Category 4 starts at 113kt) by the JTWC. It is heading for landfall in southern Japan soon with a wind of 100-110 kt. The storm should track over a considerable section of Japan. JTWC discussion mentions that it likely peaked at 127 kt a few hrs ago.
  24. Chinook
    Those are some really good pics. Thanks for sharing. I don't think I'll see much unless the auroral oval gets to Montana. Doesn't seem to be happening.
  25. Chinook
    I think we can safely say that the 12z GFS intensifies Tropical Cyclone Sanvu
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