The 00z models are in the process of finishing up the forecasts for tomorrow. At this time, I don't think there's a need to extend the slight risk much north of Cincinnati OH. The 00z HRRR may be unrealistic about deep convection near Indianapolis. I'm not sure. Maybe elevated CAPE could produce some hail near Indianapolis.
I am wondering if we should start a new medium-range tornado/severe weather thread, for general purposes. At the current time, there are no days with a slight risk or 15% risk on the extended SPC outlooks. This could change soon, but I'm not sure.
This was the radar from the reported tornado at Crofton KY earlier (8:00PM CST/ 9:00PM EST). At the current time, some tornado warnings are ongoing around Waverly, Tennessee/ Tennessee City
I am not sure if you saw my recent post about the recent Iceland low pressure. There have been several strong low pressures have been in the Iceland region this winter. Seemingly, no matter what happens, Europe continues to get warmer air masses. I have heard that January 2020 was tied for the warmest January on record. (Source: Brian Brettscheider/ Climatologist49 on twitter.) I have barely seen any TropicalTidbits maps where the surface temperature was below normal in eastern Europe.
Euro/GFS/Canadian all have a closed 500mb low in AZ/NM on December 28th, so it's definitely something to watch for the southern Rockies and areas of the plains into Kansas.
Lorain to Cleveland is 34-36 degrees right now, but you can already see the evidence of the LES north of Lorain on the radar, in the midst of the synoptic snow.
On Monday night (Tuesday 00z) the Euro and Canadian show a synoptic snow/ LES combo for Cleveland, and synoptic snow for other parts of Ohio. Yesterday's GFS run(s) had this also. It might be worth checking some model runs on this. Even if the synoptic snowfall doesn't materialize, the GFS says 850 temps will be down to -17C over Lake Erie. So this is massively cold considering October was some +3F above normal.
Maybe Oklahoma City is getting a very wet August? By the way, 87mph wind report near Piedmont, OK. I have heard that there was a probable tornado near Edmond.
GFS has two storms in the next few days in the Pacific. Typhoon Lekima, farther west, is expected to be 130 kt (Category 4) near Ishigakijima, Japan and also at 80 kt near the Chinese landfall point (JTWC)
Here is a map of the storm reports, up to 647pm eastern. There is one report of 3 waterspouts. Obviously this is a notable severe weather day for this area.
Several tornado warnings today. As mentioned before, there have been 2 tornado reports near Rienzi and Burnsville MS. Now this may be a tornado in one of the larger towns, Columbus. One tornado report at Artesia.
33dBz and 44mph peak wind gusts for essentially blizzard conditions at Cleveland lakefront area - otherwise, fairly windy (10 mph - 30mph) inland, some areas of 33 dBz on radar.
Typhoon Trami, as viewed from the International Space Station (I think.) See twitter for animated image (very cool). Typhoon Trami effectively made landfall on Okinawa, Japan, and there are a lot of U.S. Military members there.
Super Typhoon Mangkhut is now a textbook Category 5 cyclone, and JTWC predicts that it will impact the northern Phillipines (Luzon.) It might be a pretty close call with landfall
Typhoon Jebi has been analyzed by the JTWC as 80 kt (down from 90 kt earlier today) and will most likely make landfall on Japan at Shikoku, (one of the 4 main Japanese islands,) west of Kyoto.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shikoku