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Chinook

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    The models show that DFW metro area will be near a surface warm front, with dryline existing at some point in central Texas tomorrow. SBCAPE values are forecast to be over 2000 J/kg south of the warm front. It is possible that severe storms will form near the warm front. The SPC could upgrade this area to a limited-area slight risk or keep it at a marginal risk.
  2. Chinook
    I was searching around on Youtube and I found a very good lecture series about tornado forecasting done by Rich Thompson of the SPC. Hopefully this link will take you to the whole playlist, including 9 lectures.
  3. Chinook
    SPC has a day-3 slight risk outlook for Arkansas/Tennessee
  4. Chinook
    The GFS is usually not this crazy about freezing rain accumulation, but the NWS doesn't appear to be overly concerned, with just a winter weather advisory. What's the deal?
  5. Chinook
    Freezing rain in Kansas City metro
  6. Chinook
    There is a plot of snowiest month of the year (climatological) done by climatologist Brian Brettschneider on this page. Scroll towards the bottom of the page. http://us-climate.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2014-10-11T23:33:00-07:00&max-results=10&start=40&by-date=false
  7. Chinook
    If you take the general ideas of the 06z/12z GFS, you might start to expect a 0.05" to 0.25" freezing rain for southwest Missouri. So, that's not crazy (as the Euro shows?) but may be quite dangerous for vehicles anyway.
  8. Chinook
    I'm surprised we haven't had any people post directly from Houston. Didn't we have some members there? Houston: 27 degrees with -FZRAPL and with 15 kt winds. Yikes!
  9. Chinook
    Rain changed to freezing rain and then snow at Longview (center of this image)
  10. Chinook
    It's almost like these deformation banding features wish to be lake effect bands. Wind gusts to 36kt at Cleveland Lakefront.
  11. Chinook
    Ravenna ASOS says +RA and 30 degrees. Oops, I guess that's +FZRA (maybe?), Akron City has snow, Euclid KCGF has freezing rain, Cleveland Lakefront has -RA and below freezing.
  12. Chinook
    For now, this web site still works https://weather.us/model-charts/euro
  13. Chinook
    In Torreon Mexico, a desert area, it snowed at 34 degrees this morning. METAR: MMTC 081040Z 35004KT 1SM -SN OVC005 01/00 A3027 RMK 8/7// RTS
  14. Chinook
    JTWC forecast calls for Tropical Storm Saola to become a borderline 65 kt Category 1 cyclone southwest of Tokyo and then miss Tokyo by a little bit. The GFS and Euro later have this cyclone merging with baroclinic energy to create **another** huge low pressure near the Kamchatka Peninsula. Perhaps so much energy in the Pacific will send some more interesting downstream troughs and ridges our way.
  15. Chinook
    How bad could this be for Tokyo Bay, in winds and surge?
  16. Chinook
    According to JTWC, Tyhoon Lan peaked at 135 last night (daytime for that area of the world), which is ever so close to category-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
  17. Chinook
    It' an amazing visible satellite image right now
  18. Chinook
    Hi! In the mid-range, this storm could be near Tokyo (see the JTWC forecast.) In the long range, this powerful storm now looks to recurve more east of Japan, rather than heading more north towards the mid-Bering Sea.
  19. Chinook
    kind of a cool satellite image already, with -80C cloud tops.
  20. Chinook
    Developing Tropical Storm Lam in the Pacific could make for some dangerous situations in Japan, and some interesting satellite images as it tracks northwards and merges with the westerlies, after being 130 kt. (Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.) It's kind of amazing this could go from 10 degrees North to the Bering Sea or nearby.
  21. Chinook
    W. Pac is at 54% of normal ACE, with some above normal SSTs in the basin. What killed the W. Pac tropical season?
  22. Chinook
    Texas/New Mexico may get a bit of rain
  23. Chinook
    Typhoon Talim, now west of Okinawa and northeast of Taiwan, has been rated at 115 kt (Category 4 starts at 113kt) by the JTWC. It is heading for landfall in southern Japan soon with a wind of 100-110 kt. The storm should track over a considerable section of Japan. JTWC discussion mentions that it likely peaked at 127 kt a few hrs ago.
  24. Chinook
    Those are some really good pics. Thanks for sharing. I don't think I'll see much unless the auroral oval gets to Montana. Doesn't seem to be happening.
  25. Chinook
    I think we can safely say that the 12z GFS intensifies Tropical Cyclone Sanvu
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