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Chinook

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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    Super Typhoon Mangkhut is now a textbook Category 5 cyclone, and JTWC predicts that it will impact the northern Phillipines (Luzon.) It might be a pretty close call with landfall
  2. Chinook
    Typhoon Jebi has been analyzed by the JTWC as 80 kt (down from 90 kt earlier today) and will most likely make landfall on Japan at Shikoku, (one of the 4 main Japanese islands,) west of Kyoto. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shikoku
  3. Chinook
    I just saw a tweet about Super Typhoon Jebi, affecting the Northern Mariana Islands, U.S. Territory.
  4. Chinook
    KFWS radar storm totals for the last 48 hrs. Perhaps some areas of Texas will be changed from D3 drought to D2 drought.
  5. Chinook
    KFWS storm total precipitation in the past 2 days and 9 hours
  6. Chinook
    Finally, Texas has already seen some moderate rains this morning, and should have more in the short term
  7. Chinook
    July 4, 2004 had quite a few storm reports from Kansas to western and central Tennessee https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040704_rpts.html
  8. Chinook
    This was the biggest joke of a tornado watch. Almost no severe reports in it.
  9. Chinook
    SPC is expecting to issue a tornado watch for W Kentucky and western and central Tennessee.
  10. Chinook
    Radar image of Typhoon Maria, from Taiwan. This shows a lot of heavy rain bands over Taiwan. It is asymmetric Cat-2 to Cat-3 intensity at this time.
  11. Chinook
    Super Typhoon Maria (not to be confused with last year's Atlantic storm) has reached 140 knots as per the JTWC. This will weaken slowly as it approaches China and north Taiwan. (Taiwan on the west side of this map)
  12. Chinook
    It's not too often you find the 3000 -4000 J/kg of CAPE at the same areas as 50-60 kt of shear in June. And this almost shows a good overlap of these elements. It seems to be true that multicells/ squall line(s) will be likely tomorrow. It definitely could be more interesting (discussion-wise) to see more discrete supercells. Realistically, we may see quite a few severe storms with 30 - 45 kt of shear, as maybe those 50 kt values will be in the cold air sector.
  13. Chinook
    according to what I have heard, there was a highly damaging hailstorm in Dallas- Fort Worth
  14. Chinook
    Here's something a little off topic. I have noticed today that the 18z 3-km NAM products, as shown on PivotalWeather.com and College of Dupage, have taken from 18:00z till 23:00z, 5 hours, and they're not even completely done. This does not take so long for the 00z 3-km NAM products. Is NCEP just processing that much more computational stuff during the mid-day time?
  15. Chinook
    The GFS shows a decent synoptic setup for severe weather on Saturday, with CAPE of 4000 J/kg in OK and KS. There is a cold front, warm front, and dryline. There could be 70-73 degree dew points in Oklahoma. 0-6km shear values increase from 18z to 00z.
  16. Chinook
    Last year did finish with near normal tornadoes for the US (1418 tornadoes), but the storm chasers on the Plains may have been quite unhappy with it. Further information on tornado trends. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/climate-information/extreme-events/us-tornado-climatology/trends
  17. Chinook
    This year seems to be following the pattern of some of the recent years, like 2013-2016. There seem to be less chaseable tornadoes, and less severe weather overall. I wonder if somehow this relates to the mid 80's (1983-1988 ??) when tornado numbers were low. I heard that Howie Bluestein and Chuck Doswell were bored, no storms to chase.
  18. Chinook
    Friday (Saturday 00z)- The SPC has a slight risk for severe storms in Kansas. The NAM has this area somewhat capped. The 00z Euro has about 1200 J/kg of CAPE, which is not too crazy. However, the GFS has gone crazy. Usually the GFS is too low with CAPE, right?
  19. Chinook
    A grand total of 68 tornadoes have been confirmed from April 13-15. You might not have thought that after only about 10 tornadoes showed up on SPC storm reports on April 13th (before all prelim. reports and official storm surveys came in). This graphic is from USTornadoes twitter feed: https://twitter.com/USTornadoes
  20. Chinook
    Yes, it looks like Kansas and Oklahoma are in the game. The last 2 runs of the NAM show some 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE (or more like 1500 J/kg at 00z) in a narrow east-west zone (see STP chart posted above). This is much more CAPE than the GFS was forecasting in this area. So perhaps the SPC will eventually extend the slight risk to far northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri, and parts of Iowa. I think a dryline will extend up to Tulsa, and a cold front will be the forcing mechanism north of that.
  21. Chinook
    If you check the soundings for Thursday, you'll realize that this is going to be a waste of a favorable 0-1km SRH and 0-3km SRH for Oklahoma City, considering there's some CAPE and a dryline/cold front. There's a cap that's fairly strong, so Thursday is probably going to be dry. Friday may be worthy of a slight or enhanced risk for Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, and northeast Texas. Possible slight risk scenario for Saturday, east of the Mississippi River.
  22. Chinook
    possible tornado near Jackson MS radar station
  23. Chinook
    yes, that is one well-detected tornado. I am even seeing a delta-v of 130kt or 140kt, and I am using GRLevel3.
  24. Chinook
    TDFW high-resolution radar near McKinney
  25. Chinook
    Isn't there somebody on this board from Richardson, a couple miles away from this tornado warning?
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