Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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This may be the best 0-6 km shear I've seen in an unstable sector in mid-summer. It would be about a 1 hour drive for me to get out to the supercells, but I don't think I want to do it.
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Tornado, wind, and hail reports in Sterling. The tornado report said that it was in a field, so that's good.
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If you were to take just the 13z outlook, with enhanced, the verification is not great. The moderate risk verification (16z) looks worse. The East Coast slight risk was about OK. A lot of storm spotters reported wind damage near Washington/Baltimore, that's partially because there are a lot of people there.
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So far, the moderate risk/enhanced risk has only resulted in a few areas of severe reports, with 3 tornadoes east of Denver, from (I think) different short-lived supercells,
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This was the radar image of the hailstorm as it passed over Cheyenne. The storm expanded east-west as it developed. The west side of this storm broke off, and moved SSE, and that's my picture from last night (maybe weak rotation). (see 2nd image)
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This is a shelf cloud from a discrete (hail) cell NE of Fort Collins tonight. This was not taken from home, but a convenient location away from trees and houses. Otherwise, my area got just a few sprinkles, maybe 0.01" of rain today. Fort Collins has gotten above normal rain for this month,even though this storm missed by a bit.
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Another (marginally) severe hailstorm is tracking across the north metro I-25/E470, possibly tracking over DIA soon. edit: storm getting worse, possibly dropping 1.5" to 2.0" hail. This is showing a hook shape, but nothing big on velocity
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This must have been the storm. Looks like 60-70 dBz at either I-225 or road C470. (Not sure)
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Things were not terribly stormy, as we got 0.10" to 0.50" of rain in the area, with a few weak rumbles of thunder at my place yesterday. Over two days, my place got about 0.25". Thankfully, it was much cooler, around 70 for the afternoon. Parts of Larimer County have gotten some better rains in the past 2 days.
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Microburst time lapse posted by NWS Las Vegas:
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Some heavier rain areas are starting to spread across the Denver metro/ north to Longmont. As severe thunderstorm watch is in effect Denver and southeast-ward. Now there's a tornado warned storm tracking toward Manitou Springs/ Pike's Peak. Seriously, there's a mountain that might disrupt the tornado inflow, if there ever is a tornado.
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July 4, 2004 had quite a few storm reports from Kansas to western and central Tennessee https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/040704_rpts.html
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I got a couple of great sunset pictures, from different perspectives in town. I always wanted to get pictures like these. I don't typically seek out good spots away from the trees. We have had 4 days in the mid-90's in a row. Hopefully, a cool-down on Monday. 7/2 7/14: Long's Peak and Mt. Meeker
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This was the biggest joke of a tornado watch. Almost no severe reports in it.
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If you do a plot on the NWS NOWDATA page (see the climate page) then I believe DIA has gotten 0.88" in this time period and the lowest on record is 0.66". So this is close to a record dry streak for these particular 61 days. According to the NWS 4-km precipitation analysis, most areas nearby are at least 80% of average precipitation in the last 60 days. edit: sometimes that 4-km gridded analysis doesn't exactly match up with this type of plot with airports/COOP stations
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SPC is expecting to issue a tornado watch for W Kentucky and western and central Tennessee.
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We had another hot one here with 96 at Fort Collins-CSU and 95 at FNL airport. It's very unusual that the airport was cooler by 1 degree. Yesterday was a reasonable 84 degrees, with a few raindrops and dew points of 60. On Sunday, we had some steady rain. Oh well, it's not as Dallas. Sorry, Dallas people, 108 doesn't sound fun.
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That's true, it's extremely rare. I don't know if it's a record. I checked NWS Las Vegas twitter feed to see if there was a comment on record dew point, but no comment. They posted a rainfall map of 7/14 showing up to 0.63" of rain SE of Las Vegas and up to 0.91" of rain SW of Las Vegas. With the lack of air mixing at nighttime, I guess the rain contributed to such a high dew point. Then the daytime mixing set in and the moisture went to other places.
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At least it is 30 degrees cooler than yesterday's highs. There could be some more rain popping up in the foothills and moving towards the Denver metro.
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Next week, the GFS/Ensembles show some below normal temps, but the NWS calls for 85, 86, 87, 92 from Sunday to Wednesday, which is normal-ish. So I guess we will see if we can get lucky and get some cooler low-mid 80s with one or two days with rain showers. At this time of year, the 5-day forecast isn't terribly accurate anyway.
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Consider yourself lucky to have had some temps in the 80s. My area has had 5 days of high 90s temperatures (Saturday- Wednesday), at least at Fort Collins-Loveland airport (including two 100s). Today it got up to 87 here before some heavy rain and occasional thunder happened. It rained for a while, and dropped our temp to 63. Denver has gotten no rain today.
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Radar image of Typhoon Maria, from Taiwan. This shows a lot of heavy rain bands over Taiwan. It is asymmetric Cat-2 to Cat-3 intensity at this time. -
This is really a pretty good weather picture posted by the Colorado Rockies organization. "Chuck Nasty" i.e. Charlie Blackmon. Variations of light and dark emanating away from the sun are called crepuscular rays.
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Super Typhoon Maria (not to be confused with last year's Atlantic storm) has reached 140 knots as per the JTWC. This will weaken slowly as it approaches China and north Taiwan. (Taiwan on the west side of this map)
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I have seen a tweet showing that the 700mb heights across the middle part of the country today (3270m) were a record compared to climatology (CFSR reanalysis)
