Chinook

Just as a reminder, http://weather.us still has free ECMWF maps, including QPF/snow-water QPF. (no snow ratio) You can zoom in on every US state. It also has the UKMET (shown as Global Britain Standard) with fairly basic information.

Stronger El Ninos directly correlate to the biggest snowstorms in Denver's history, or at least most of them. This is a tweet highlights the seasonal totals instead of individual events. 2002-2003 isn't even on here, but that weak-moderate El Nino winter had an epic storm here-- the cutoff low pulled in southern stream moisture and it's highly related to El Nino. Now, as for the whole, northwest Colorado does less well with El Nino, southern Colorado does better with El Nino. So for the state in general, we are at sort of a dividing line with temps/precip.

My area has had some freezing drizzle of 0.01" or 0.02" and maybe 1/2" of snow. The grass is not quite covered. Not as pretty as last Sunday.

It has been exactly 5 years since the Washington, IL tornado, during an SPC high-risk day with a 30% hatched area for tornadoes. quote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_November_17,_2013#East_Peoria–Washington–Long_Point,_Illinois

The lenticulars broke up into smaller clouds. I got this nice pic at sunset

We have a large lenticular wave cloud, much larger than the UFO-shaped little clouds. It is keeping temperatures down from Loveland to Colorado Springs. With 57 in Cheyenne, it should be something like 67 in Fort Collins and Denver, but it isn't

Colorado and Wyoming seem to be the only states that are accumulating snow in the mountains, of much importance. And that will continue with winter storm watch/ winter storm warning now in effect for southeast Wyoming for Friday/Saturday.

The built in (HRRR) precip-type on GRLevel3 may not have highlighted any of the freezing rain in N. Ohio

GFS, other models, showing another weekend snow for Fort Collins, Estes Park, and Cheyenne. As of yesterday's model runs, this storm didn't look like much.

I am seeing the NAM/GFS put out some freezing rain for Ohio and Indiana. I am wondering if the roads are cold enough for this to build up an icy surface.

This CFS forecast now looks pretty silly. +2 deg C (+4 deg F) is so wrong for the entire Midwest, and a bunch of the country. The Nov 1-12 anomales are: -6 deg F in Illinois!

A hint of the sun, reflecting off the snow on top of somebody else's car

we are still getting some decent reflectivity along and south of Loveland. Here is a radar image from earlier-- there might be a lot of spotters near here

Snow has continued steadily. I may get 5" within the next hour or two.

I like the fact that the board is starting to wake up from its slumber and talk about winter storms. Yeah!

We've got about 3.5" of snow right now, with some decent size flakes/aggregate flakes.

GFS/NAM now have 4" for Denver, maybe 5-6" for Colorado Springs now. So maybe this could be a bigger impact for the biggest metro areas.

Yesterday, we had a high of 39, low of 17 at Fort Collins. (average of 28.0) On December 21st, the average high/low is 42 and 17 (average of 29.6). (1981-2010 climatology, I believe.) So we were colder than our lowest daily average of the year.

Short-term forecasts show about 1" to 3" of snow along the I-25 cities and basically nothing in the rest of the Colorado plains. Possibly up to 6" in the mountains for Sunday. There should be an east-west area of snow of Albuquerque to Amarillo.

The Euro has quite a bit of snow for northern Ohio/ northeast Indiana on Tuesday, with more low pressure development in West Virginia

45 tornadoes have been listed on Wikipedia as confirmed from Oct. 31 to Nov. 1. Nearly all of these are listed as tornadoes of Oct. 31 on SPC's page. About 31 of them were after midnight local time but before 12z, which is the cutoff for the SPC's list. So there you go, not exactly springtime storm chasing, but this does significantly add to the number of tornadoes in 2018. Note: SPC has 62 (unfiltered) on Oct. 31 and 2 (unfiltered) on Nov. 1.

Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland got about 2 months of rain in 2 weeks

This is about 21 mi southeast of Nashville

TBNA view of this confirmed tornado at Thompson's Station, Tennessee

STP and radar from recently