Chinook

That's right. There were 79 tornadoes in two days (according to SPC's Severeplot database) and there was more than $1.3 billion damage from hail across the country on April 10.

Name this severe weather event! This is the NARR reanalysis for two consecutive days, at 18z. The maps are from before 2015. What happened on these days?

3-D visualizations of low-swirl, medium-swirl, and high-swirl tornadoes from NCAR https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/21089/3d-window-tornado

It's kind of funny how much this wind profile is different from the surrounding areas (50 - 200 m2/s2 of SRH, 30-45 kt of shear). Seriously, 500 m2/s2 next to 50 m2/s2. Now that it is so much easier to look at the various parameters from the 4km NAM, we see that deep convection on the model can lead to some very different temp/dew/wind profiles near simulated storms. Given the 25kt-35kt of wind at 500mb tomorrow, (as per the 12z GFS,) I would say tomorrow is most likely to have some multicells with hail/wind. The SPC has an enhanced (ENH) outlook for tomorrow for central Texas, which may make sense. Usually something interesting happens when there is 5000 J/kg of CAPE. For the last few days, I thought maybe tomorrow (Tuesday) would be a bigger severe weather day. With marginal winds at 850mb and 500mb, it should be kind of low on the tornado potential, maybe lower potential on high-end wind and hail.

The 12z and 18z GFS show that the EML (warm layer) will quickly move over the warm, moist sector Monday night, from 00z to 06z, resulting in with some hundreds of J/kg of CINH by 06z.

The 06z day-2 convective outlook, valid for Sunday: the SPC extended the slight risk to northern Oklahoma, as well as northwest IA. Here is a small piece of SPC's discussion: -- EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WITH AN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION TO THE DRY LINE SUGGESTS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.

Sunday could be a regional severe weather threat for areas such as Omaha, Topeka, Kansas City, western Iowa, and Des Moines. 500mb winds will be pretty decent over the warm sector. A dryline will be out ahead of the cold front in central KS, eastern Nebraska.

Isn't Mike Morgan the one who makes all sorts of extreme (and less than helpful) statements on live TV while covering tornadoes???

The 12z GFS has 0.93" liquid equivalent for north Toledo, and 0.59 Akron, 0.42" Canton, 0.56" Cleveland, 0.6", southern Michigan. The 12z NAM has 1.04" liquid equivalent for Toledo, 0.77" Cleveland. If this turns out to be 10-1 or better snow ratios, watch out! By the way, the largest snowstorm my parents had in Toledo this winter is about 3"

The extended range forecast out to 2 weeks in the future looks quite cool for the Midwest. The Day-3 (Easter Sunday) forecast as well as Wed March 30 look like possible severe weather setups. Otherwise the severe weather may be very close to the Gulf of Mexico or there may be none at all for 3-4 days in a row.

It seems like Monday and Tuesday may be slight risk days. Currently the SPC is discussing these days but there are no 15% highlighted areas on the extended outlook maps. The GFS shows medium instability, 1000-2000 J/kg, through parts of the southern Plains, Monday afternoon. As for dynamics, there is a weaker shortwave near Goodland KS, and a strong 500mb jet moving in through northern Mexico into Texas on Tuesday.

Looks like severe season for central Oklahoma just started with a severe thunderstorm watch issued tonight, and a recent wind gust to 58mph.

My dad in Toledo said they just got 4" since the changeover last night, which was their BIGGEST snow day of the SEASON.

Cleveland heavy snow squall that has developed on the pre-cold front (i.e. there are 2 fronts noted on the WPC surface analysis. The one up by Lake Huron is where the real arctic air is.)

The squall is tracking over the lake now, passing Port Clinton right now.

Local storm reports in the CLE area, Feb 10 to 11

115-mile long band of heavy snow, stretching westward into non-lake-effect-snow territory of Norwalk and Clyde

Sorry about the jumpiness. I did the best I could. I was intending to use UCAR/RAP national radar images, but that web site broke down for a few hours during the storm. Nice satellite/radar/500mb loops!

I made this radar loop so that we would be able to see the storm's features from start to finish. It starts January 22, 0018z, which is when it was transitioning to being a snowstorm for some areas of the South. http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Blizzard_of_2016_radar_loop.html

Northeasterly wind lake effect snow... I have still never seen northeasterly wind LES hit Toledo in 20 years of watching the weather

Even though the models have trended east/ with more snow into Indiana, it will likely not be a snowstorm for NW Ohio, not of much impact anyway. The surface to 925mb winds should be pretty strong out of the NW- probably lots of gusts over 25mph for open areas, 12z Sunday to 06z Monday, maybe with some steady snow or flurries. I suppose the LES may visit Cleveland. Note: the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS don't quite agree on wind direction after the storm-- perhaps this means more uncertainty for Cleveland LES. 90 hr GFS sounding over western Lake Erie-- potential for 100-200 J/kg of lake-CAPE, winds at 300 degrees NW. (?)

One of the cool things available now is the Sharppy soundings directly off of the forecast maps on both College of Dupage and Pivotalweather.com. These could be quite helpful for future lake-effect snow scenarios. College of Dupage web site also allows you to view sounding text after generating a sounding. I was playing around with generating a NAM sounding over Lake Erie tomorrow. Pivotalweather allows soundings from the 4km NAM and HRRR too. Unfortunately it doesn't allow adjustments for warm lake temperatures that are above the 2m temperature.

I believe CLE had the 4th warmest November at 48.6 degrees (plus or minus a tenth or so)

GFS is showing some strong winds for the middle of Lake Erie. The NWS zone forecast offshore from Cleveland has 27kt gusting to 36kt Saturday. GFS shows 45kt close to the surface (950mb), Saturday, before the cold sector.

Keeping the lake warm only helps the snowlovers if there is a cold airmass aloft to create the lake effect snow. Personally, I like walking on a frozen Lake Erie, you know, like 5 feet from the shoreline.