Chinook

some snow accumulations with a frigid -6 to -9

A little off topic here: I may be able to access several resources regarding winter storms in that time period (I saved a lot of images, plus there are other resources online.) Not sure what you were thinking of Meanwhile... GFS Ensemble member 19 has 2.5" water equivalent for Chicago, so I'm rooting for that. the ECMWF ensemble members max out at 1.64" total water equivalent for Chicago.

My loop of the past 6 days. I made this because so much happened: the northern blizzard, tornadoes, and the northeast winter storm http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Dec_12_18_2022_GFS_surface_loop1.html

It has been a long time since I've seen a model battle like what we are seeing today. The Midwest weather almost never has model runs debating 980mb and such. There's the 12z ECMWF's 979mb in Muskegon, Michigan versus the 18z GFS run of 980mb-976mb in northern Ohio. These days, I'm back here and not in the West, so I'm in the middle of it. There's going to be a lot of model runs with widely varying scenarios in the next few days. I'm going to just keep watching the total weather weenieism on this board and enjoy it! Because hey, the 18z GFS has 13.8" for Toledo. And I'm sure the models today won't be right. And I'm sure snow-rain ratios won't be more than 12:1 for my area whatever does happen.

I vote for Ensemble 14

Pictures: newest Wikipedia info. Graphic that was tweeted by Jim Cantore.

Here are some maps regarding the Mid-Atlantic storm. The vertical-horizontal cross section (4th picture) shows the warm layer at 850mb extending well into the middle part of the image, with below freezing underneath 850mb. That's where the sleet/freezing rain should exist. I used the RH as colors, as to make it less confusing. Green colors are values of high relative humidity. On the 5th picture you can see temperatures above 0C at 850mb in the same places as those of temps below 30F surface temperature.

It looks like the debris signature for this has tracked from south of Newton MS to almost Hickory MS

north Texas

I'm just watching Reed Timmer's live stream which started less than 2 hours ago (not sure exactly when it started). He says there has been a Decatur TX, south of town, and also around Weatherford.

a spotter reported damage at Grapevine, near to this non-confirmed tornado warning

tornado on the ground in north Fort Worth at 14:11z

New GFS for Colorado

The 00z convection allowing models seem to have a generic look for severe weather in Louisiana and maybe Arkansas at 48 hours. (day-3)

Interesting to see the CIPS analogs from 2-3 days out.

Winter storm watch for northeastern Colorado, mainly away from the bigger cities

sea level pressure: 1046.7mb and -22 degrees F.

well I guess the NAO is negative, specifically if think that one of the ways to express the NAO index is the SLP anomaly in Ponta Delgada, Azores Islands, minus the SLP anomaly in Iceland and the AO index, which is effectively calculated by SLP (really, 1000mb heights) shows a very negative value today December 1-8 analysis shows a strong negative NAO value and yet the eastern USA had higher than normal heights at 500mb

Here are observations from yesterday's high winds and dust storm. The cold front drove a wall of dirt, which shows up on the colorized visible satellite image shown below. Apparently there are dust storm polygons. (Who knew?)

I actually don't know if this was a confirmed tornado, but hey, huge hole in the storm.

tornado video tweeted by @LandonWX10 on twitter

large and complicated velocity signature with reported multi-vortex tornado

confirmed tornado as of about 6:05 or 6:10 eastern time, Bassfield

Even though there is a strong emphasis on tornadoes today, the SPC has meteorologists issuing MDs for snow in the Midwest.

pretty much all convection-allowing models have numerous discrete thunderstorms at 06z tomorrow night