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Chinook

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    Debris is directly over I-65, probably large tornado
  2. Chinook
    I wonder if we will have a significant tornado get going in western Illinois as per the 03z HRRR updraft helicity (hour 17-18)
  3. Chinook
    12z HRRR significant tornado parameter. The 12z 3km NAM has this entire field of instability farther west into Missouri and Iowa.
  4. Chinook
    With the GFS right now, it seems like this would be a northern threat somewhat removed from a southern threat. The 00Z ECMWF doesn't really have the same exact setup. The low pressure placement at 00z (Apr. 1, or, 8:00PM eastern on the evening of Mar. 31) is kind of different from the GFS. Along with this, the surface winds to perhaps 850mb winds much more in the realm of southwesterly rather than southerly. I think there is certainly some disagreement as to the synoptic features.
  5. Chinook
    I think this was Fort Collins' largest snowstorm of the year, (11" at Windsor, not shown) and apparently this was a surprise snow band
  6. Chinook
    This is a picture of me on March 14, 2021. Sometimes I trim my beard back a little bit.
  7. Chinook
    Mayjawintastawm probably liking this for Boston
  8. Chinook
    It looks like the 0-1km SRH will be increasing a lot from +2hr to +6hr on the SPC mesoanalysis (23z to 03z). I must say that the current STP is very high at a value of 4, and that same value will shift eastward.
  9. Chinook
    I didn't really expect this to go to MODERATE at mid-day, but certainly the deep-layer shear is there 6-hr mesoanalysis (RAP) forecast of STP with the radar from (I believe) the HRRR 6hr forecast
  10. Chinook
    17" at Neenah (near Appleton)
  11. Chinook
    observations from 0927z, 4:27 AM Central
  12. Chinook
    some snow reports of 7-13" in NW Illinois
  13. Chinook
    basically that would convert to 131.1mph one way and 131.1mph the other way. But hey. that's like Cat-4 tornado (113kt-137kt)
  14. Chinook
    Yes, I got the same thing, it's 262.8mph, and effectively I haven't ever been able to see the data is this high of quality for this type of delta-v in my life.
  15. Chinook
    tornado may have tracked for 31-32 miles already
  16. Chinook
    Here's some hype for you. I think there's a high chance of EF1+ tornadoes and significant wind reports after sunset tomorrow. The nighttime severe is always more concerning, as people aren't ready for it.
  17. Chinook
    interesting that CIPS analog #3 lines up almost perfectly with the calendar date
  18. Chinook
    You could check annual graphics from the SPC going back several years to see the tornadoes in California. example: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2022_annual_summary.html
  19. Chinook
    This radar image from Montebello/Los Angeles tornado from a youtube video from channel "Convective Chronicles" (I recently found this excellent channel)
  20. Chinook
    Here is the NAM forecast sounding for eastern Arkansas for 03z (tomorrow night), with effective STP of 4.3. Some odd things going on in the hodograph at 3km above ground, but I'm not sure too much to talk about, given the fact that the rest of the hodograph is excellent for tornadoes. The 3km NAM (not shown here) has up to 490 m2/s2 of 3km SRH at the Arkansas/Louisiana border. HRRR for 03z tomorrow night
  21. Chinook
    new loop http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Jan_5_2014_SfcRadar_loop.html
  22. Chinook
    I think this a new product by College of Dupage, Ensemble CAPE for the event that's now 96hr+ in the future, so it's not on the 3-day outlook
  23. Chinook
    near sunset
  24. Chinook
    Yesterday (Saturday) Toledo was 22 degrees with a wind chill of 8 degrees before midnight. It's kind of rough considering there had been a lot of warmer temperatures in February and so many days without snow. Toledo had a high of 33 and a low 22 which was -16 for the high and -8 for the low.
  25. Chinook
    I believe once Weathafella said that he remembered this heavy NY snow storm, which happened almost on St. Patrick's Day 1956
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