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  2. Considering it's good news, we won't hold it against you.
  3. Yeah, total. Rain has been more towards your area/RT 44 on south.
  4. Combined? If so, wow, quite a gradient.
  5. Just over half inch here. Not too much rain, but yesterday and today are quite windy.
  6. Legit raw, Fall feel today. Yard is a mess with leaves/small branches etc. U50s with a 30-40mph wind is nasty.
  7. Enough with the wind already A miserable 3 days of weather here, and today is probably the worst yet. Not holding out hope for tomorrow...hopefully Sunday we clear and torch.
  8. I will put it back in if we get any more heat I live on the 6th floor so it's doesn't get that hot in my apartment.
  9. Enjoy sweating.
  10. This is a kind of situation where you check back here and there over the weekend, just to see if anything has shifted significantly, instead of looking at each run of the major models. I wouldn't be investing much time in this, it's almost definitely an Ocean Storm.
  11. Possible record highs coming up...funny how 2007 also saw some good heat around this time given all the talk about that winter in the winter thread. Also 2010 had some heat around this time asthe Massena records show....both Nina years.
  12. I already did last week
  13. The percentage of hitting the U.S is very low but not impossible.
  14. In his defense...that is not how the media reported it. Big headlines & the words unprecedented used. I looked at the satellite data & thought "What the heck?", it's not open.
  15. But again - is there anything pushing her anywhere close to landfall? Not really. The ULL is weak. The ridge isnt in the right place (its more under the ridge as it builds back than on the periphery). Like I said yesterday - there will be just enough model uncertainty to keep weenies hoping for a landfall, but no realistic shot at one. I mean just to put a fine point on it - the NHC track right now has Maria about as close to Bermuda as the Outer Banks. We are now at the point where landfall is 4-5 days away if its going to happen, and it would take a huge shift by both the Euro and GFS which are showing basically the same solution, to get a landfall. 5% maybe at best.
  16. Just looking at the 15 day EPS....cool down in the middle, but overall a very warm/dry pattern beginning to build d10-15. Some hints, though nothing definitive, that our cool pattern has one more gasp, and then the pattern flips warm and stays warm.
  17. Which residence are you currently living?
  18. Even with the strongest summer polar vortex pattern since at least 2006, NSIDC extent still finished 8th lowest. Our most favorable years now for sea ice retention are still significantly lower than the most hostile years pre 2005.
  19. It will come down to the trough . Maria will come west if the trough is slower than modeled. Still some time but as of right now Maria looks ots.
  20. A well calibrated ensemble prediction system will generate forecasts consistent with the probability density function associated with the forecast uncertainty/error. While true that there will be members that perform well for any individual event, there are not members that are inherently more skillful on the average. That is by design. In fact, most ensemble systems use stochastic components to help represent the random errors in the initial conditions and subsequent forecasts. This is true for single model ensembles like ecmfw eps and ncep gefs. Multi model ensembles like the sref and Canadian eps are more complicated since they will have members that are more skillful based on the components within each member.
  21. I'm leaning broken, but either way it sucks. I doubt he makes it a full day today.
  22. Anyone who would shut off the AC in mid-Sept in the DC region is insane. 86 is nasty in a stale office.
  23. 2.15" out of Jose. Sustained winds 15-20mph w/ gusts 30-40mph. AWT.
  24. ha, tell that to my husband. his building has had the heat running. he had to leave early yesterday because it was 86 in his office. guess the a/c is broken, or was shut off for the year.
  25. It has been warm mid-day, but for those of us with inside jobs the temps haven't been bad in the morning or evenings. A nice climo 77/60 would be excellent though.
  26. I have a question/questions.... just because I love crunching data lol and I see a few outlying members with Maria... The ECMWF model Ensemble has 50 members.. Each of those members have a name IE EN01,EN02 etc.... 1. Are there Ensemble members that are more accurate than others? 2. If so then what are they and where can you find a graph with the latest run that shows the ensemble members with their names? Thanks for everyone's knowledge and help
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