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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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still pretty qpf loaded for now. of course it will probably dry but it brings 1" liquid to the nc/va border

 

it is but the problem is trying to get these southern stream systems to amplify on their own....and it isn't working this year for the most part and there is no reason to think it will work without a phase...even in weak ninos we have the same issue, but to a lesser extent..

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jan 30 2010. :P

 

yeah...I mentioned that yesterday as an example of what probably can't happen....that wasnt going to be denied, but we had a STJ on steroids...we need help to get a proper system to ride up the coast..but maybe we can get a small to medium storm..you're right this seems to have ample moisture

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yeah...I mentioned that yesterday as an example of what probably can't happen....that wasnt going to be denied, but we had a STJ on steroids...we need help to get a proper system to ride up the coast..but maybe we can get a small to medium storm..you're right this seems to have ample moisture

 

definitely not the same type of winter but the pattern for this one isn't all that different on the euro for now. granted it's like 100 years from now in model time.

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not with a southern stream system and all that confluence to the north

 

well, the Nina reference was that the models overdue the vortex in Canada sooooo, assuming it is doing it here, it will come north from current prog

 

I'm gunna' make this little effer' work by d@mnit!   enough is enough!!!

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hopefully DT stays quiet about this. we all know what happens the next few runs when he barks

 

 

 

WELL MAYBE THERE IS SOMETHING.... 

from JAN 10 run of the 12z ECMWF .. this model which handles SOUTHERN Lows soooo much better than the GFS... is seeing a strong closed Low over the southwest states. In fact the last few runs of the ecwmf have been " seeing" this feature.

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Newest CCKW map shows the extra tropical rossby wave train at 155W 30N and the one continuing to develop at 150E 20N along with the CCKW at 165E 0N. Still on schedule the 155W RW should move over the eastern US on Jan 15-16 and the 150E should pass over the eastern US Jan. 22-23. 

 

Also watching the GWO, the analogs are pointing to an arctic blast of air possible Jan 24-27 or Feb 2-4. I'm leaning more towards the 24-27 time frame since it coincides with the 2-3 week window after the SSW->PV split yesterday. Obviously models aren't feeling this yet. They are all over the place anyways but I think they will come around in the end. Still falls in line with thoughts back on the the 5th that Jan 25-30 could see -33C 850 tmps sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE which would mean 850 temps in the -18 to -16C range for the mid atlantic. 

 

post-3697-0-76947300-1357850270_thumb.jp

post-3697-0-39231900-1357851124_thumb.jp

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Is Wes almost done his round yet?

I'm done but don't have much to say about the euro run or the GFS for that matter. Having a southern stream system come east is always interesting but the nina look with the superstrong northern stream and vortex is bothersome as it would be better near nova scotia. It's worth watching but I'm not sure you can make a blanket statement about it will continue to trend north. That's possible but there are years 2010-2011 when the northern stream was so strong that there was little phasing until it was too late for us. The longer range models have been bouncing around with the handling of the vortex which is waht makes it somewhat interesting. We need the northern stream vortex weaker or farther north if we want the southern stream moisture to get north to us. Right now I'd lean for it not getting to us but who knows.

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I appreciate your updates. 

Ne

 

west CCKW map shows the extra tropical rossby wave train at 155W 30N and the one continuing to develop at 150E 20N along with the CCKW at 165E 0N. Still on schedule the 155W RW should move over the eastern US on Jan 15-16 and the 150E should pass over the eastern US Jan. 22-23. 

 

Also watching the GWO, the analogs are pointing to an arctic blast of air possible Jan 24-27 or Feb 2-4. I'm leaning more towards the 24-27 time frame since it coincides with the 2-3 week window after the SSW->PV split yesterday. Obviously models aren't feeling this yet. They are all over the place anyways but I think they will come around in the end. Still falls in line with thoughts back on the the 5th that Jan 25-30 could see -33C 850 tmps sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE which would mean 850 temps in the -18 to -16C range for the mid atlantic. 

 

attachicon.giftues2.jpg

 

 

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