All Activity

Some of the guidance has backed off a bit, but the latest obs show that rapid cooling is occurring in regions 1.2 and 3 already. The early development of this Niña could potentially indicate that the more aggressive guidance has the right idea. Weaker events don’t usually start developing until later.

There's nothing globally that's happening that is different from the decadal trend, so I like the forecast. In 2020, I started realizing that we were "evening out" one year to another (Feb 2020 would be +pna so Feb 2021 would be -pna, etc.), and I do think we are "due" for hotter weather in the Spring/Summer, partially because of how much cooler it has been relative to the trend in recent years. if not this year, then future years.. March 2012 was super warm, then Summer 2012 broke the record for arctic ice melt, so maybe as that starts heavily progressing again we will go warmer?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/houston-recovery-mode-storm-kills-131840576.html

I fear the east wind next week… I hope it’s not more of the same with a 80 degree day sprinkled in

Yep sure looks like a similar warming trajectory from the UHI PHL Airport vs all of those Chester County NWS COOP and MADIS sites just since 1980....

This was already addressed the east and west is not as critical as the elevation above sea level which we have already detailed in the above post with those splits. There are clearly and consistent with the old data more stations in the recently current data at the relatively lower elevations. Not at the higher elevations. We will of course be analyzing data that reviews the data individually at both the relative higher and lower elevation locales to account for any variables due to these elevations.

i prefer 55 and mist....

LOL!! "quality sites" meaning those that disagree with your NWS Climate sites including both PHL and ILG Heat Island impacted stations and of course add in those after the fact chilling adjustments to the past and warming tweaks to the current data. Quite the different look from the above for Chester County if we don't make warming adjustments to the actual current data. Regarding the sites in more detail yes there was as a % more lower elevation sites in the past....which likely skewed those results too warm...even though they were in fact the warmest decades. The good news is we now have a good balance and mix that as long as we keep breaking it out by elevation will clearly show the non-adjusted factual real world warming or cooling depending on the current climate change cycle.

Today's contribution! Things are getting a late start this year due to the crap weather. Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

DC proper is the new Short Pump?

JB is already building hype for next winter. I'm predicting Sistene chapels and massive hymns from dec-mar.

It's about as lush and green as Scotland out there. Been the perfect amount of regular rains this spring.

so bad

I'm driving up to Annapolis to pick up a new motorcycle tomorrow morning, I'm sure heavy rain is a lock for the AM ride home.

Bedford.

The weekend patterns have been yuck for sports. The younger Ms J was supposed to have a horse show all weekend. It was postponed for the safety of the horses and riders. They show in rain but not pouring rain that would slick up the footing.

What town(s)??

Yeah we’ve had one 69F and 4 days of 70+ in the past 5. Really been a nice stretch in NNE over the top. Black flies were noted yesterday for the first time at the mountain, though not biting or really swarming. Seemed like drunk black flies waking up or something, just aimlessly floating around. They’ll sober up and get the munchies soon.

Heading down to Albany this weekend, should be a bit better out that way. Moving my folks from ALB to SNH and my sister and her 3 kids are going from BGM to SNH too for my brother-in-laws job. Going to start spending more time down that way between CON and MHT.

Another low 70s day, 4th in the last 5 with 69 on the one miss. TD is well below midsummer swamp level, but high enough for considerable sweat while working up some firewood. (The fact that it was elm added to the sweat, though my having killed the tree 2 years ago actually made the cross-grain a bit weaker.) Fair amount of black flies out and about, and starting to get hungry. Maybe we'll miss the worst of the swarms as we're headed to SNJ for the last week of the month - oldest granddaughter graduates HS.

Another weekend of canceled baseball. My son has played 5 games and had 4 rainouts.

Places like Newark have been getting close to 30 days and higher reaching 90° and very wet summers since our warmer summer pattern began in 2010. So the warm and wet summer pattern has become the new normal. This is what happens with high pressure east of New England which gives us a more humid onshore flow with higher dewpoints. 14 wettest summers at Newark and annual number of 90° days Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Annual 90° days 1 2011 23.57 31 2 2003 21.30 20 3 2021 20.46 41 4 2007 19.27 21 5 1971 19.09 22 6 1975 18.78 12 7 2019 18.76 27 8 2009 18.70 14 9 1942 17.71 15 10 1989 17.67 27 11 1948 17.47 26 12 2020 17.30 31 13 2013 17.05 25 14 1952 16.80 31

I’m prepared to complain about relentless heat while complaining about relentless cloud cover

Atmospherically and oceanically, it’s all systems go for this La Niña. It will have no problem coupling. Would not be surprised at all if we see a strong event

love it